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SP 500 Cash Index / US Dollar

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SPCUSD trade ideas

$SPX Recap for Feb 24 - Today's Trading Range coming asap Good Morning, y’all. I lost my voice (more like a sore throat, I feel fine otherwise but a sore throat so doing the charts on here today) Yesterday - SPY opened with a pop up, and at the 1hr200MA got pushed underneath the 50 Day moving average. We got pack above the 50 day and got pushed back down by the one hour 200. That 1 hour timeframe is fighting back now that the 35EMA slid under the 30min 200. (That was a lot) We DID trader completely within the implied move. The 50DAY moving average is not pointing DOWN here.
SP:SPX
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
Falling towards pullback support?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance. Pivot: 5,938.92 1st Support: 5,865.87 1st Resistance: 6,051.54 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by ICmarkets
S&P INTRADAY oversold bounce back? S&P (US500) index pair price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a sideways consolidation after a retest of an all-time high on 19th Feb ‘25. The key trading level is at the 6007 level, the consolidation price range and also the previous resistance is now a newly formed support zone. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 6007 level could target the upside resistance at 6057 followed by the 6106 and 6146 levels over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 6007 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 5980 support level followed by 5967 and 5918. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
S&P500 | Historic Trends, Consolidation & Bull Flags [2030 END]I have been wanting to put my thoughts on the historic tends observed in the S&P500 in a post for some time and decided to focus this discussion on the relationship observed between S&P 500: * Bull Flag runs (~17 to 25) years in length * Consolidation Period (~13 to 15) years in length * 27 Period (2 Monthly) SMA - Aqua Colored Line * RSI NOTE: Chart is looking at logarithmic price of the S&P500 on the 2 Monthly time period. S&P 500 HISTORY | 27P(2M) SMA, CONSOLIDATION PERIOD & BULL FLAG RUNS SINCE 1943 The below images show 'Consolidation Periods' governed by 'Black Trend Lines', 'Bull Flags' (Orange / Navy / Aqua) governed by colored measured moves between these periods and the 27P(2M) SMA in Aqua. Key Takeaways for Longterm Investors Key take aways Looking at the S&P 500 from such a zoomed-out perspective: * CONSOLIDATION: Periods of consolidation required investors to proactively manage their investment. A buy and hold approach left investors' money in limbo not doing a lot over these time periods. Investors who could identify the S&P was in a period of consolidation did well by selling at the upper and buying at the lower trend lines once they became apparent. * BULL FLAG: Run periods rewarded the discipline 'Dimond hands' investor, providing key holds at the 27P(2M) SMA and future higher highs. A good strategy during these periods was to accumulate at the 27P(2M) SMA. RSI ANALYSIS As we are currently in a Bull Flag period for the S&P500 (Aqua Measured Moved), lets now look at the relationship between the RSI and price to identify key historic behavior which may be useful with current price behavior. It is notable that historically the RSI tends to oscillate between rising and falling channels when exhibiting price Consolidation / Bull Flag price behavior. Bull Flag (1943 to 1968) – 25 years Focusing on the orange measured move or first Bull Flag period from approximately 1943 to 1968, observable characteristics include: * At the consolidation period price break out, RSI continued to set higher highs until peaking (with the first lower high) at Point 1 - this marked approximately the halfway point of the bull run period. * Retest and hold behavior with the 27P(2M) SMA for the entirety of the run * End of bull run period and start of consolidation period confirmed with price breaking below and first candle open and close below the 27P(2M) SMA at Point 2 . The Stochastic RSI has helped to identify if price is set to put in a higher low during bull flag periods and has been a reliable indicator in confluence with the 27P(2M) SMA.  Consolidation Period (1968 to 1983) – 15 Years Consolidation period starts at the end of the prior bull flag and confirmed at Point 2 where price has broken below and opened and closed the first candle below the 27P(2M) SMA. This has been marked with the aqua vertical line on the chart. Price is confirmed to have left the consolidation zone once it breaks to the upside of the black trend line (in some cases with a retest). Change in price behavior from ranging to bullish within the consolidation period has been identifiable historically with a break above the 27P(2M) SMA followed up by a retest and holding the 27P(2M) SMA as support. Price has tended to range between the consolidation period trendlines until this price behavior is achieved. The Stochastic RSI has helped to identify if price is set to put in a low during consolidation periods and has been a reliable indicator in confluence with the lower black trend line.  It is notable the Momentum Bias Index has printed RED bars on the histogram during all historic consolidation periods reviewed (2 in total) when the bottom of the consolidation period has been set. Similar observations have been observed in the below two future consecutive Macro Bull Flag and Consolidation periods reviewed in this analysis. Bull Flag (1983 to 2000) – 17 years Consolidation Period (2000 to 2013) – 13 years CURRENT PERIOD | WHERE ARE WE NOW? BULL FLAG TO FINISH IN 2030 ESTIMATION? If the S&P 500 is to continue historic trend and continue consecutive Bull Flag / Consolidation periods, this would suggest the current bull flag run could end in 2030 and the next consolidation period would begin. This is based on the same bull flag measured move approach and estimations of the bull flag structures discussed in the prior bull flag / consolidation periods. It is noted that the prior consolidation period (2000 to 2013) left this zone and peaked at the RSI high relatively early compared to prior periods. According to the review of other bull flags this suggests the middle part of the bull flag run occurred in 2015. It is unclear if this would result in a reduced bull flag period run and a material lower high than the measured moved. It is also noted at current prices a retest and hold of the 27P (2M) SMA would result in a 30% drop. A move in the market of this magnitude would result in some interesting news headlines but historically would show nothing out of the ordinary for S&P500 price behaviour.
CBOE:SPX
by Brodie
2025 - 2026 Roadmap2025: - Cut Gov Spending - (Lower GPD) - Cut Gov Temp Workers - (Lower Employment) - Deport Service Workers - (Increasing inflation) - Tarif's - (One time inflation event) Cutting government spending should cause a recession. Note march 2025 : Drop and Bounce from seasonality. 2026: - '2020 Fed Carry' removed - Call of 5 yr 1.5% loans. - Called loans result in equity sell off. - Treasury funds gov with 30 year - Incentive to lower rates first. The government plans to switch from using 2-year bonds to 30-year bonds to fund itself by the end of 2025 or early 2026, under an agreement between the Treasury and the Fed. The downside? With 30-year bonds, they'll be stuck paying today's high 5% interest rate for three decades. Lowering the rate first would be better and save money, which is possible if a recession happens before the switch. To help, the Fed agreed to leave and make room in the 30-year bond market.
SP:SPXShort
by NicTheMajestic
SP500USD| BEARISH CONFIRMATION AND KEY SUPPORT LEVELSHello traders, The price has stabilised below the support zone, reinforcing the bearish trend as long as it continues to trade beneath this level. Remaining below this zone is likely to drive the price down to 5,947. If this level is breached, the price will encounter the channel, which must be broken with a 4-hour candle close to confirm the bearish trend. Beyond this, a strong support zone lies ahead, which may cause multiple upward rebounds before the price eventually breaks through. The bullish trend is activated by passing the three main levels of 6002, 6074, and 6102.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by ArinaKarayi
(Read) Comprehensive Analysis of Potential S&P500 Market CrashThe S&P 500 Index, a barometer of U.S. equity market health, faces heightened scrutiny as analysts debate the likelihood and severity of a potential market correction or crash in the coming years. Synthesizing forecasts from leading financial institutions, historical patterns, and macroeconomic indicators reveals a complex landscape of competing narratives. This report evaluates the evidence for a near-term market downturn, projected crash magnitudes, and the interplay of factors that could catalyse or mitigate such an event. Historical Context of S&P 500 Corrections and Crashes : The S&P 500 has experienced 27 corrections exceeding 10% since 1928, with an average decline of 13.7% over four months. True crashes—defined as drops exceeding 20%—have occurred 14 times, most recently during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic (-34% peak-to-trough) and the 2022 inflation-driven bear market (-25.4%). Historical analysis shows crashes typically follow periods of excessive valuations, monetary policy tightening cycles, or exogenous shocks. The index’s current forward P/E ratio of 21.8 sits 32% above its 25-year average, raising concerns about overvaluation. However, this metric alone proves insufficient for timing corrections, as demonstrated during the late 1990s tech bubble when valuations remained elevated for years before the eventual 49% crash from 2000-2002. Current Macroeconomic Conditions and Risk Factors: Federal Reserve Policy and Interest Rate Trajectory: The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment creates policy tensions as core PCE inflation remains at 2.8% year-over-year (January 2025) against a 3.9% unemployment rate4. With the Fed funds rate at 5.25-5.50%, real rates stand at 2.45%—their highest level since 2007. Historical precedent suggests such restrictive policy environments precede recessions 70% of the time within 18 months. Earnings Growth and Valuation Concerns: Analysts project 14.8% earnings growth for S&P 500 constituents in 2025, driven primarily by the technology sector’s AI investments. However, this growth assumes no recession and continued margin expansion—a precarious assumption given rising labour costs and potential demand softening. The index’s Shiller CAPE ratio of 32.6 exceeds 1929 levels (32.5) and approaches the 2000 peak (44.2). Geopolitical and Systemic Risks: Ongoing conflicts in Eastern Europe and the South China Sea, coupled with U.S.-China trade tensions, introduce supply chain vulnerabilities. Energy markets remain volatile, with Brent crude at $92/barrel as of February 2025—a 28% year-over-year increase—pressuring corporate input costs. Divergent Institutional Forecasts for 2025-2026: Bull Case: Technology-Led Growth Continuation UBS and Goldman Sachs project 2025 year-end targets of 6,600 (+13%) and 6,400 (+9.8%) respectively, citing: AI-driven productivity gains adding 1.2% to annual GDP growth Fed rate cuts totalling 75bps by Q3 2025 Corporate buybacks exceeding $1.2 trillion annually Bear Case: Valuation Reset and Policy Error Stifel’s analysis of 139 years of market data identifies parallels with 1929, 2000, and 2020 manias, forecasting: A final speculative surge to ~6,400 (+26% from current levels) Subsequent crash to 4,750 (-26%) by late 2025 Decadal underperformance with real returns averaging 2.1% through 2035 Independent analysts like Sven Carlin warn of 30% corrections as normalized rates (10-year Treasury at 4.5-5%) pressure equity risk premiums. This aligns with the Buffett Indicator (market cap/GDP) at 188%—surpassing 2000 and 1929 extremes. Crash Probability Analysis and Potential Triggers Quantitative Models and Leading Indicators Recession Probability Models: NY Fed’s yield curve model: 58% chance of recession by Q3 2026 Conference Board Leading Economic Index: -4.1% annualized decline Technical Analysis: Monthly RSI at 72 (overbought territory last seen pre-2008 crash) Advance-Decline Line divergence since November 2024 Likely Catalysts for Correction: Trigger Probability Potential Impact Fed Policy Mistake 45% -15% to -25% Geopolitical Shock 30% -10% to -20% Earnings Recession 55% -20% to -35% Systematic Leverage Unwind 25% -25% to -40% The convergence of multiple triggers—such as stagflationary conditions combined with derivative market stress—could amplify losses beyond 30%. Sector-Specific Vulnerabilities and Opportunities High-Risk Sectors Technology: 35% of index weighting trades at 32x forward earnings. 40% of AI-related revenue projections lack concrete use cases. Consumer Discretionary: Rising delinquency rates (6.1% on auto loans) signal demand destruction. Real Estate: Commercial property valuations down 18% from peaks with $1.5 trillion in maturing debt through 20262. Defensive Opportunities Utilities: 4.2% dividend yield with 85% regulated revenue streams. Healthcare: Demographic tailwinds and 12.8x P/E multiple 23% below 10-year average. Consumer Staples: Pricing power demonstrated through 6.4% organic growth despite volume declines. Historical Crash Patterns and 2025 Scenario Analysis Comparative Scenario Modeling Scenario S&P 500 Path Probability Soft Landing 6,900 (+17%) 25% Mild Recession 5,200 (-12%) 40% Systemic Crisis 4,100 (-30%) 20% 1970s-Style Stagflation 3,600 (-39%) 15% The base case (40% probability) anticipates a rolling correction: Q2 2025: Peak at 6,400 on AI hype and Fed cut hopes Q3 2025: -18% decline as earnings disappoint Q4 2025: Partial recovery to 5,600 on policy response This aligns with VIX futures term structure showing heightened volatility expectations from June 2025 onward. Risk Mitigation Strategies for Investors Portfolio Construction Recommendations: Equity Exposure: Reduce beta to 0.8 through: 15% cash allocation yielding 5.3% in money markets 20% minimum volatility ETFs (USMV) 5% long-dated put options (Jan 2026 4,800 strike) Fixed Income: Ladder 2-10 year Treasuries capturing 4.6-5.1% yields. Alternative Assets: 10% commodities (gold, copper, uranium) 5% managed futures (DBMF) for trend following Behavioral Considerations Avoid performance chasing in Mag-7 stocks trading at 40x average P/E Rebalance quarterly to maintain risk thresholds Stress test portfolios against 35% equity drawdown scenarios Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty in Late-Cycle Markets The S&P 500 faces its most complex macroeconomic environment since the Global Financial Crisis, with valuation extremes colliding against technological transformation. While crash probabilities remain elevated (55-60% chance of >20% decline by Q2 2026), the timing and magnitude depend critically on: Fed Pivot Timing: Premature easing could reignite inflation, delaying cuts risks debt crisis AI Monetization: Current $4.3 trillion market cap attributed to AI must materialize in earnings Geopolitical Stability: 34 national elections in 2025 introduce policy uncertainty We should prioritize capital preservation through disciplined asset allocation while maintaining exposure to structural growth themes. Historical analysis suggests that even severe crashes (30-40%) present generational buying opportunities for those with liquidity and fortitude to withstand volatility.
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by Who-Is-Caerus
SPX500USD Will Go Lower! Sell! Please, check our technical outlook for SPX500USD. Time Frame: 4h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The price is testing a key resistance 6,122.6. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 6,074.3 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SignalProvider
1
"SPX500USD" Indices Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰🐱‍👤🐱‍🏍 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "SPX500USD" Indices Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish thieves are getting stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Sell below (5930) then make your move - Bearish profits await!" however I advise placing Sell Stop Orders below the breakout MA or Place Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. I Highly recommended you to put alert in your chart. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at 6025 (swing Trade Basis) Using the 4H period, the recent / swing high or low level. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: Primary Target - 5875 (or) Escape Before the Target Secondary Target - 5750 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook: "SPX500USD" Indices Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend., driven by several key factors. 👉Fundamental Analysis Earnings Growth: The SPX500 earnings growth rate is expected to slow down in 2025, driven by economic uncertainty and trade tensions. Valuation: The SPX500 forward P/E ratio is around 17.5, slightly below the historical average. Dividend Yield: The SPX500 dividend yield is around 2.0%, relatively attractive compared to other asset classes. 👉Macro Economics GDP Growth: The US GDP growth rate is expected to slow down in 2025, driven by economic uncertainty and trade tensions. Inflation: The US inflation rate is expected to remain around 2.0% in 2025, slightly above the Federal Reserve's target. Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates relatively stable in 2025, with a possible rate cut in the second half of the year. 👉COT Data Commitment of Traders: The COT data shows that large speculators are net short SPX500, indicating a bearish sentiment. Open Interest: The open interest in SPX500 futures is decreasing, indicating a declining interest in the market. 👉Market Sentimental Analysis Bearish Sentiment: The market sentiment is currently bearish, with many investors expecting the SPX500 to continue its downward trend. Risk Aversion: The market is experiencing high risk aversion, with investors seeking safe-haven assets such as bonds and gold. 👉Positioning Short Positions: Many investors are holding short positions in SPX500, expecting the index to continue its downward trend. Long Positions: Some investors are holding long positions in SPX500, expecting a potential bounce or reversal. 👉Next Trend Move Bearish Trend: The current trend is bearish, with the SPX500 expected to continue its downward trend driven by economic uncertainty and trade tensions. Support Levels: The next support levels are seen at 5700 and 5600. 👉Overall Summary Outlook Bearish Outlook: The overall outlook for SPX500 is bearish, driven by economic uncertainty, trade tensions, and slowing earnings growth. Volatility: The market is expected to remain volatile, with investors closely watching economic data, earnings reports, and geopolitical developments. 👉Real-Time Market Feed SPX500 Price: 5990.0 24-Hour Change: -1.2% 24-Hour High: 6050.0 24-Hour Low: 5950.0 Trading Volume: 2.2 billion 👉Prediction Next Target T1: 5875 (short-term target) T2: 5750 (medium-term target) T3: 5650 (long-term target) 📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Thief_Trader