likely short-term bottom, watch for a potential rebound(The following is only a personal opinion, not investment advice. Please make your own judgment before making any decisions.)
This week, the price fluctuated between 19,129 and 19,700. A lower high (LH) has formed, and the price broke above the descending trendline on Friday. If the price can successfully remain above the descending trendline next week, there is a high probability of a significant rebound.
The ideal scenario would be for the price to stay above 19,300 and start rebounding. If the price briefly breaks below 19,300 but quickly recovers above this level, the rebound hypothesis remains valid.
However, if the price falls below 19,300 and stays below the descending trendline, further declines may occur.
Next Wednesday's FOMC meeting will be a key event. Currently, the CME suggests there is almost no chance of a rate cut. The main focus will be on the Fed’s post-meeting statement. The market currently expects the Fed to start cutting rates again in June, with only a 25% probability of a rate cut in May. If expectations for a May rate cut increase, market sentiment could receive a strong boost. Conversely, if rate cut expectations are pushed further back, the market may decline further.
Given this week's better-than-expected CPI data and the fact that recent economic data has not supported rising inflation, the Fed may adopt a relatively dovish stance.
Target TP levels are 20,256, 20,715, 21,098, and 21,370.
Further declines remain possible after a rebound.
If the price surpasses 21,345, pay close attention to its behavior between 21,400 and 21,600, as well as potential overbought conditions. The market may decline further after completing the rebound.
