Silver starting a new cycle! Classic 5-3 pattern cycle completed. New cycle started on Jan 1 2025. Lets Go! When in doubt.. zoom out!
XAGUSD trade ideas
XAGUSD BULLISH FOR 90000 PIPSFundamental Drivers
Global Economic Uncertainty: Historically, silver and gold are seen as safe-haven assets in times of economic stress. A significant crisis like a major recession, geopolitical tension, or even the collapse of major financial institutions could drive demand for precious metals.
Inflation Concerns: High inflation or fears of currency devaluation could lead to a rush toward silver as a store of value. Central banks printing money or high fiscal deficits can also push investors into commodities.
Interest Rates & Monetary Policy: If the Federal Reserve or other central banks turn dovish (cut interest rates) or increase money supply, it could weaken the USD, making silver more attractive as an alternative asset.
Supply-Demand Imbalances: If there's a disruption in silver mining or an increase in industrial demand (e.g., for solar panels or electronics), this could push the price higher.
2. Technical Analysis Factors
Long-term Trend: A breakout from key resistance levels, for example, if XAG/USD surges above a long-established trendline or a key psychological level (like $30, $40, etc.), could signal the beginning of a strong uptrend.
Chart Patterns: Certain chart formations like a cup-and-handle, inverse head and shoulders, or large-scale triangles could indicate a breakout on the horizon.
Fibonacci Retracement & Extension: If silver has recently been in a corrective phase, a Fibonacci extension could project higher levels, perhaps supporting the idea of a major move.
Momentum Indicators: If indicators like RSI (Relative Strength Index) or MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) are signaling bullish momentum, it could support your forecast.
3. Market Sentiment & Speculation
Retail & Institutional Interest: If there's a sudden surge in investor interest in silver, either from retail traders or institutional investors, this could cause rapid price appreciation. Silver, being a relatively small market compared to gold, can see sharp moves when investor interest spikes.
Media Coverage: Sometimes, speculative hype driven by news outlets or social media can push prices in a strong direction, especially if traders are anticipating further gains.
4. Geopolitical/Global Events
Pandemic, War, or Crisis: Major global events often cause investors to flock to precious metals. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, we saw substantial moves in precious metals as central banks worldwide engaged in massive monetary stimulus.
5. Supply Chain Disruptions & Physical Demand
If there were disruptions in the global supply chain, it could lead to higher physical demand for silver, especially from industries that require it for manufacturing purposes (e.g., electronics, solar energy).
Trendline breakWe have seen a trendline breakout suggesting a bearish move is in play, we have also seen a pullback before the break, this is further confirmation of a bearish move
WE ONLY TRADE PULLBACKS
SILVER Trading Opportunity! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for SILVER below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 30.495
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 30.267
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Silver Declines as Trump’s Tariff Threats Shake MarketsSilver fell to $30 per ounce on Wednesday, extending losses as the dollar rebounded amid Trump’s escalating tariff threats. Trump announced tariffs on chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper to boost domestic production. Traders remained cautious ahead of the February 1 tariff deadline for China, Mexico, and Canada.
Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged this week. In China, overcapacity in the solar panel industry led firms to adopt a government-led self-discipline program, potentially limiting silver demand.
Technically, the first resistance level will be 31.00 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 31.80 and 32.50 consequently. On the downside 29.85 will be the first support level. 28.80 and 28.50 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.
Silver- Bulls need 30.50 breakAs I mentioned in my previous posts, I’m bullish on OANDA:XAGUSD and expect a rise to $32.
However, the price action lately has been choppy and constrained in a range between $31 and around $30.
The good thing is that bulls have defended the $30 zone well so far. At the time of writing, silver is trading just under the $30.50 median of the range. A break above this level should help clarify things and open the door to $31, with potential acceleration toward my $32 target.
I’ll remain bullish as long as the price stays above $30 on a daily close basis.
Silver/Gold Ratio signals Lower Interest Rates AheadWhen OANDA:XAGUSD (Silver) does well relative to OANDA:XAUUSD (Gold), it means the economy is strong and interest rates tend to rise when that happens. The opposite is also true. When Silver is weak relative to Gold, interest rates tend to fall.
See how it works historically? The 1997 drop in rates when the silver/gold ratio shot up is the rare exception
Why does it work? Silver is an economic metal used in industry and gold is a precious metal which used to be used for technology in the 1970's.
Well - it shows now that rates should be going down because the economy is flat, weak or recessionary. However you want to label it, the economy can afford lower interest rates.
This LONG TERM indicator has worked quite well and deserves to be on your list of indicators to track the likely path of interest rates. OF COURSE, the more important factor is WHO is at the head of the Fed.
Lower rates would make sense especially if the profligate Government spending machine slows down its aggressive spending. The global war on covid didn't help and the clear message that the market is telling us is that we needed to slow down the price hikes but we now have a US Gov't deeply in debt and struggling to be able to justify lower rates.
Here's to clarity on the future moves by the Fed, which if you were just looking at this indicator you would be cutting rates steadily for the foreseeable future.
Cheers,
Tim
11:47AM EST January 28, 2025
xag usd 2h🌟 XAG USD 2H Silver 2-hour time frame
The triangle broke from below so we could have taken a selloff now we have to wait for the DXY dollar index
XAGUSD 30mIf the price can reach the above targets sooner and provide confirmation, we can expect a sell of 200 to 400 pips.
Stochastic RSI IndicatorOnce it pull up and cross back down for the four hour chart, it would be a big hit to take for the rest of the week on gold and silver
Silver: Bearish Outlook with Triple Top PatternSilver: Bearish Outlook with Triple Top Pattern
Silver is currently indicating a bearish outlook, driven by a triple top pattern.
The neckline was broken at 30.1, indicating a further price decline.
This bearish sentiment is reinforced by a strong volume zone near 30.3, increasing the likelihood of a continued downward movement.
The target levels to watch are 29.6 and 28.90.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
SILVER: Expecting Bullish Continuation! Here is Why:
Looking at the chart of SILVER right now we are seeing some interesting price action on the lower timeframes. Thus a local move up seems to be quite likely.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
SILVER Is Bullish! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for SILVER.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 30.136.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 31.006 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
SILVER BULLS ARE STRONG HERE|LONGwww.tradingview.com
Hello, Friends!
SILVER pair is trading in a local uptrend which know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is green. On the 2H timeframe the pair is going down. The pair is oversold because the price is close to the lower band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to buy the pair with the lower BB line acting as support. The next target is 30.831 area.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Silver sell off to continueFollowing on from our previous analysis we think today we will break key horizontal structure. We expect gold and silver to be under pressure at the beginning of the week.
XAG/USD Channel Breakout (28.1.2025)The XAG/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 29.26
2nd Support – 28.88
🎁 Please hit the like button and
🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post !
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING
Thank you.
Possible sell moveSilver is currently moving between 30.9 and 30.0 and the metal looks likely to fall if it fails to move and stabilise above 30.9
If it does fall, the below support will be immediate barriers were price will aim for to kickstart a bullish move.
However, moving above 30.9 will continue the bullish move.
SILVER POSSIBLE SELL?The market is currently testing the current WEEKLY 0.5 & 0.618 Fib area. Based on DAILY & 4HR TF, the market seems to be forming a possible reversal pattern which could lead to a possible reversal.
We could see SELLERS coming in strong should the current level hold.
Disclaimer:
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is solely intended for educational and informational purposes only.The analysis provided is based on my own view of the market. Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account.
High-Risk Warning
Trading in foreign exchange on margin entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. In this case, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and in your favor.
XAGUSD - Silver on the verge of a big week?!Silver is trading in its ascending channel on the 4-hour timeframe, between the EMA200 and EMA50. If the correction continues, we could see a break of the channel bottom. A consolidation above $30.8 would provide a path for silver to rise to the supply zone, where we can sell at a risk-reward ratio.
According to the annual report by StoneX Financial, silver has been highlighted as one of the top-performing metals among both precious and industrial metals in 2025.Benefiting from its dual nature as a monetary and industrial asset, silver is set to gain from rising gold prices and strong industrial demand. In the report, Rhona O’Connell, Head of Market Analysis at StoneX, and Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Base Metals Analyst, forecasted that silver, alongside copper and tin, will outperform other metals in 2025.
Despite strong performance in 2024, with a 22% growth, silver is expected to continue its upward trajectory in 2025 as the top-performing metal. This projection is based on robust market fundamentals and promising future prospects that have attracted the attention of investors. Part of this growth stems from the long-term outlook for the solar industry, although new U.S. government policies might slow this trend.
Investment in silver is expected to remain strong, potentially even outpacing gold. While gold is predicted to peak this year, silver is anticipated to keep growing, with a price target of $33 by the end of 2025.
Copper and tin have also garnered attention due to their critical roles in the transition to green energy and digitalization. On the other hand, aluminum has been identified as a metal requiring cautious investment.
The report notes that silver has historically been recognized as a precious metal due to its history as a form of currency and its use in jewelry. According to the authors, “Silver’s relationship with gold has always played a key role in its price behavior, but in reality, this relationship is more complex.” They added, “Throughout much of last year, silver behaved like a precious metal during bullish trends and like a base metal during bearish ones. Statistical analysis confirms this. During U.S. economic recessions, silver’s price performance and correlation with gold and copper show that, more often than not, silver traded more in line with copper than gold. In inflationary periods, the opposite was true.”
StoneX attributes this to two primary reasons. They explained, “Firstly, the nature of silver’s supply, which is predominantly derived as a byproduct of base metals or from industrial scrap, prevents it from having a clearly defined equilibrium price in the market. Secondly, a small group of investors sees silver as an accessible way to capitalize on gold’s price volatility.”
They highlighted that “President-elect Trump’s suggestion that Mexico and Canada could face tariffs was enough to unsettle the market, even if these were likely negotiating stances rather than definitive decisions. Mexico accounts for approximately 25% of U.S. silver imports, and Canada accounts for 10%. Just the idea of such tariffs was enough to drive silver prices higher. However, as is often the case with silver, this movement was short-lived. This metal remains one of the most vulnerable to rapid and reactive price swings and should always be approached with caution.”
They concluded, “Silver will continue to respond to any significant activity in the gold market and will also see further transitions this year due to the ongoing fundamental investment deficit growth. While it may face headwinds from European recession and potential oversupply of solar cells, its long-term outlook remains bright, likely continuing to attract investors and speculative funds.”
Meanwhile, Lee Hardman, an analyst at MUFG Bank, noted that the depreciation of the dollar, following Trump’s statement that he would “prefer” not to impose new tariffs on China, might be limited. He argued that Trump is still likely to implement higher tariffs.
Trump has called for lower interest rates and a weaker dollar to support the U.S. economy. However, his policies of higher tariffs, stricter immigration controls, and tax cuts, if enacted, “are likely to bolster U.S. yields and the dollar for a longer period.” In an interview with Fox News, Trump stated that he “prefers” not to impose new tariffs on China, suggesting the possibility of a trade deal.
SILVER SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
SILVER pair is in the uptrend because previous week’s candle is green, while the price is obviously rising on the 1H timeframe. And after the retest of the resistance line above I believe we will see a move down towards the target below at 30.468 because the pair overbought due to its proximity to the upper BB band and a bearish correction is likely.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
XAGUUSD downside target 29.5On the 4-hour chart, XAGUUSD fell back after testing the previous supply zone, and short-term bears are dominant. At present, you can pay attention to the resistance near 30.5. If the rebound is blocked, you can consider shorting. The support below is around 30.0. After breaking through, the support below is around 29.5.
