Bank of Canada Expected to Reduce RatesSeveral desks forecast that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will reduce the overnight rate by another 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75% (from 3.00%) today at 1:45 pm GMT. Since June (2024), the central bank has lowered rates by 200 bps over six consecutive meetings, bringing the overnight rate closer to the mid-point of the BoC’s neutral range of 3.25% - 2.25%.
The swaps market is pricing in a 94% chance that the BoC will opt for another 25 bp cut today. Eleven out of twelve economists polled by the Wall Street Journal also forecast a 25 bp reduction, in line with current market pricing. Additionally, some desks are airing the possibility of a 50 bp decrease. However, I doubt this will be the case; cutting the overnight rate to such an extent at this juncture might indicate serious concerns in the Canadian economy, and I do not think the BoC will want to alarm the markets.
BoC Rate Cut; US Tariffs on the Front Line
Let’s be frank, the BoC has a challenging task ahead. At a time when the Canadian economy shows signs of persistent inflation – the central bank’s preferred measures of inflation have been hovering around the upper boundary of its 1%-3% inflation target band – and reasonably robust GDP growth (Gross Domestic Product), running at an annualised rate of 2.6% in Q4 24, the central bank will likely cut rates again today.
You may also recall that before Friday’s jobs numbers, rate pricing was roughly 50/50 for most of February (and early March) regarding whether the BoC would hold or cut. As mentioned above, money markets are now nearly fully pricing in another 25 bp cut. According to Statistics Canada, job growth was minimal in February, adding a mere 1,100 jobs; this was significantly lower than economists’ forecasts and followed three consecutive months of strong hiring. Despite this, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.6%, defying analysts’ estimates of a 6.7% increase.
Unquestionably, the BoC’s primary focus is on US tariffs, with some economists cautioning that a recession could be around the corner in the event of a prolonged trade war. The most recent technical recession in Canada, brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, was seen in 2020. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem stated that prolonged and widespread US tariffs could significantly hinder the Canadian economy’s recovery.
This week's latest developments saw US President Donald Trump dial back on his 50% tariff threats on Canadian aluminium and steel, retreating to his originally planned 25% tariffs; Trump also recently downplayed the possibility of a US recession.
What Does this Mean for the Canadian Dollar?
Versus the US dollar (USD), the Canadian dollar (CAD) remains on the ropes, with the USD/CAD currency pair refreshing multi-decade highs of C$1.4793 in February. Technically, following a test of monthly resistance-turned-support at C$1.4193 last month, buyers and sellers are now contained between said support and overhead monthly resistance at C$1.4533. Overall, though, the long-term trend still favours buyers, so a breakout higher would not come as a surprise, potentially paving the way for a run to another layer of monthly resistance at C$1.4925. Meanwhile, on the daily chart, the pair rebounded from support at C$1.4262, with scope to run to resistance from C$1.4595.
Consequently, while the trend leans in favour of buyers now, monthly and daily resistance between C$1.4533 and C$1.4595 could be problematic. This area will likely need to be absorbed before further upside is seen towards C$1.4793, closely shadowed by monthly resistance at C$1.4925.
Should the BoC cut the overnight rate by 25 bps, maintain cautious forward guidance, and not pre-commit to additional policy easing, I see limited volatility drawn from this risk event. However, if the central bank held the rate at 3.00% and underscored a strong economy, this could send the CAD higher (USD/CAD lower). If the BoC opts for a bulkier 50 bps cut and signals further easing, this would likely open the door to a shorting opportunity in the CAD (USD/CAD higher).
Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
