USDCAD H4 | Bearish BreakoutBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is currently at our sell entry at 1.4423, a pullback resistance
Our take profit will be at 1.4311, a pullback support.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.4540, which is a swing-high resistance.
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USDCAD_LMAX trade ideas
Risk off, Dollar off | FX ResearchRisk off - dollar off isn't exactly a familiar trend in markets, yet this is how things have been playing out in recent sessions. Ultimately, the market is deeply distressed about the outlook for the U.S. economy given the unpredictability of administration policies, forcing investors into risk reduction mode, where alternatives to the U.S. dollar have become the currency of choice, at least for now.
The Canadian dollar is the only notable laggard among developed currencies, with price action reflecting the stress on the Canadian economy as U.S. tariffs take effect and Canada responds with its own retaliatory measures. Mark Carney will step in as Canada's new Prime Minister and has vowed to keep retaliatory tariffs in place until the U.S. shows Canada more respect.
Earlier today, German industrial production came in better than expected, fueling additional demand for the euro. Looking ahead, there are no first-tier risks on the calendar for the rest of the day, with market focus remaining on broader headlines.
Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
USDCAD, Short, 15m✅ USDCAD formed a clear rising wedge pattern, signaling a potential bearish move. The price is expected to decline slightly from this level.
Canadian economic data showed stronger-than-expected results, including a better unemployment rate, higher Ivey PMI, and a strong trade balance, boosting the CAD. In contrast, U.S. data revealed a higher unemployment rate and weaker Non-Farm Payrolls, putting pressure on the USD.
SHORT 📉
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Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 10 - 14 MarchMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: US Inflation Rate and Producer Price Index, BoC Interest Rate
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Bullish bounce off pullback support?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.4151
1st Support: 1.3946
1st Resistance: 1.4477
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Bearish drop?USD/CAD has reacted off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.4412
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.4539
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.4247
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
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USDCAD - Bullish ProspectsUSD/CAD's 4-hour chart suggests that if we see a nice correction in the current area around 1.434, we may experience a continuation to the upside as indicated by the arrow on the chart. The pair has been showing volatility since early March, reaching a peak of approximately 1.4540 before pulling back. The projected path illustrated with the zigzag line indicates a potential corrective move down followed by renewed bullish momentum. This potential upside continuation would likely target levels beyond the recent high, with the current consolidation possibly serving as a base for the next leg up. The highlighted blue box area represents a support zone that could contain the correction before the anticipated upward move materializes. Traders should watch for price action confirmation within this region to validate the bullish scenario.
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USD/CAD - Harmonic Patterns and Momentum IndicatorsTechnical Analysis of USD/CAD - Harmonic Patterns and Momentum Indicators
Overview:
The USD/CAD chart illustrates price action on the hourly timeframe, incorporating harmonic patterns, Fibonacci retracements, and momentum indicators to identify potential reversal and continuation points. The presence of a Crab harmonic pattern suggests a critical turning point, while momentum oscillators provide additional confirmation.
**Harmonic Pattern Analysis:**
1. A **Crab harmonic pattern** is evident, with the price reaching the terminal point at approximately **1.44627**.
2. The **XA and BC Fibonacci extensions** align with key retracement levels, reinforcing the likelihood of a reversal at this zone.
3. The price has **rejected the high point**, indicating potential exhaustion of bullish momentum.
**Support and Resistance Levels:**
- **HOP (Harmonic Optimal Point):** **1.44627** - The potential completion zone of the Crab pattern.
- **XA Retracement:** **1.43968** - A key structural support level.
- **BC Level:** **1.43721** - A secondary support level for price continuation.
- **T2 (Target 2):** **1.42596** - A potential downside target if bearish momentum continues.
**Momentum Indicators:**
- **Stochastic RSI & Relative Strength Index (RSI):**
- The **Stochastic RSI** shows a recent overbought condition, followed by a decline, indicating potential bearish momentum.
- The **RSI also exhibits bearish divergence**, where price made a higher high while RSI formed a lower high, suggesting weakening bullish strength.
**Market Sentiment & Potential Trade Opportunities:**
- Given the rejection at **1.44627**, a **short position** could be considered if confirmation of further downside emerges.
- A break below **1.43968** could reinforce the bearish bias, with **1.42596** as a potential target.
- However, if the price finds support and rebounds, a bullish continuation could be anticipated, requiring further validation.
**Conclusion:**
The **Crab harmonic pattern, overbought momentum indicators, and Fibonacci confluence suggest a possible bearish reversal**. Traders should monitor **key support levels and momentum shifts** to determine whether the bearish scenario plays out or if buyers regain control. Risk management and confirmation signals are crucial before entering a trade.
USD/CAD Market Analysis: Potential Reversal from Resistance ZoneThe USD/CAD pair on the 15-minute timeframe is showing signs of a potential bearish reversal. The price has been in an uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows while respecting a diagonal support trendline. However, it has now approached a key resistance zone around 1.43575, as marked by the M15 supply area.
The current price action suggests a rejection from this resistance, with wicks indicating selling pressure. If the price breaks below the ascending trendline, a further decline towards the 1.42794 support level is likely. The risk-to-reward setup favours short positions if confirmation of a bearish structure shift occurs.
Traders should monitor price action closely for a trendline break or a strong bearish engulfing candle to confirm the sell-off.