USD/CAD โ High Probability Long SetupHey guys, welcome back! I'm Skeptic, and today I want to share an interesting long setup on USD/CAD that could present a solid trading opportunity. Let's break it down!
๐ 1D Timeframe Analysis
After the previous uptrend, USD/CAD entered a long consolidation phase within a daily range.
Recently, we saw a fake breakout of the range low, followed by strong bullish momentum, indicating a potential attempt to break the key resistance at 1.45172.
If this breakout is successful, we could see higher targets being tested.
๐ 4H Timeframe & Entry Plan
๐น Trigger: Entry after the breakout of 1.44545 resistance.
๐น Execution: You can either place a stop-buy order or wait for a breakout confirmation on lower timeframes.
๐น Stop-Loss: Below 1.43677 (safe level).
๐น Target: Holding towards the daily resistance at 1.45172 and beyond.
๐ Why take this trade?
We are anticipating the daily breakout before it happens, rather than chasing it after the fact.
If you wait for confirmation above 1.45172, you may need a wider stop-loss, making the entry less favorable due to increased volatility.
๐ Risk management remains key! Make sure to size your position accordingly and avoid overleveraging.
๐ฌ Whatโs your take on this USD/CAD setup? Drop your thoughts below!
๐ See you in the next analysis!
USDCAD_LMAX trade ideas
Bullish bounce?USD/CAD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.4360
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.4307
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.4486
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which is a pullback resistance that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Bullish continuation?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance that lines up wit the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 1.4348
1st Support: 1.4239
1st Resistance: 1.4537
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USDCAD - Long after filling the imbalance !!Hello traders!
โผ๏ธ This is my perspective on USDCAD.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I look for a long. I expect upcoming week price to make a retracement to fill that huge imbalance lower and then to reject from bullish OB.
Fundamental news: Upcoming week on Friday (GMT+2) we have NFP on USD and Unemployment Rate on CAD. News with high impact on currencies.
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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Bullish Momentum with 3:1 RR LongUSD/CAD Technical Analysis: Bullish Momentum with 3:1 Risk-Reward Long Opportunity
Current Market Structure
USD/CAD is displaying a strong bullish trend across multiple timeframes, with price action forming higher lows and higher highs since mid-February 2025. Analysis reveals:
Daily timeframe: Clear uptrend developing from the late 2024 lows with price breaking above previous resistance
4-hour timeframe: "Confirmed" bullish alignment with all EMAs in a clean bullish stack (8 > 13 > 21 > 55)
1-hour timeframe: Similar bullish configuration providing additional confirmation
EMA System Status Confirmation
The proprietary EMA System Status indicator shows robust bullish conviction:
240 Signal: Bullish
240 Trend: Bullish
Alignment: Confirmed
This triple confirmation represents ideal conditions for long entries according to our system parameters.
Key Technical Levels
Support Levels:
1.4321: Current stop placement and recent support zone
1.4260: Previous consolidation area
1.4200: Psychological round number
Resistance Levels:
1.4500: Psychological round number
1.4688: Current profit target and projected resistance
1.4750: Major resistance from historical price action
Correlation Analysis
The bullish USD/CAD setup is reinforced by:
Strengthening DXY (Dollar Index) with confirmed bullish alignment
Oil price vulnerability affecting CAD's strength
Diverging monetary policy expectations between Fed and BoC
These correlations provide additional confirmation for the USD/CAD long position.
Trade Parameters
Entry Strategy:
Long at 1.44133
Stop Loss at 1.43216 (91.7 pips)
Profit Target at 1.46883 (275.0 pips)
Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:3 RR
Risk Management:
0.35% account risk allocation ($100,000 account)
1.0 lot position size
$350 risk per trade
Potential profit: $1,049.62
Technical Confluence Factors
Multiple technical factors support this long setup:
Price recently pulled back to and bounced from the 21 EMA support
All EMAs aligned in bullish stack formation (8 > 13 > 21 > 55 > 200)
MACD showing bullish momentum and confirmation
Weekly and daily separators providing context for key support/resistance zones
Recent break above previous swing high resistance
Market Timing Considerations
Important events to monitor that may impact this trade:
Bank of Canada interest rate decisions
Canadian employment and inflation reports
US Federal Reserve policy statements
Oil price movements (inverse correlation to USD/CAD)
Conclusion
USD/CAD presents a high-probability long opportunity with an excellent risk-reward ratio of 3:1.
The technical picture shows strong bullish momentum across all relevant timeframes with the EMA system providing "Confirmed" alignment status. This setup meets our strict criteria for trade execution.
Trade management will follow our established methodology with partial profit taking at the 1.5R mark and trailing stops implemented once price exceeds the 2:1 risk-reward threshold.
#USDCAD #forex #technicalanalysis #EMAsystem #bullishsetup #tradingopportunity #riskmanagement #DXYcorrelation #currencytrading #longtrade #swingtrading #tradingsystem #forexanalysis #tradingview #priceaction #EMAsignals #tradingsetup #riskreward #tradingstrategy #BankofCanada #FederalReserve
USDCAD SHORTShort Trade Setup:
๐ Entry Zone:
โข Look for a bearish confirmation candle around 1.4450 - 1.4480 before entering a short position.
โข A retest of the resistance level would provide stronger confirmation.
๐ฏ Target Price (TP):
โข TP1: 1.4300 โ First key support level
โข TP2: 1.4150 โ Lower boundary of the channel
๐จ Stop Loss (SL):
โข SL: Above 1.4500, in case the price breaks out above resistance.
This setup is valid as long as the resistance level holds and no breakout occurs. Always wait for confirmation before entering a trade
USDCAD Will Fall! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for USDCAD.
Time Frame: 3h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 1.445.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 1.435 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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USDCAD SELL ANALYSIS SMART MONEY CONCEPT Here on Usdcad price has form a supply around area of 1.44489 and is likely to continue moving down as more sellers are likely to come and push the price down so trader should go for short with expect profit target of 1.43558 and 1.42562 . Use money management
USDCAD BUY TRADE PLAN WITH ALTERNATE PLAN๐ต Primary Trade Setup โ Bullish Reversal Buy
๐ Primary Entry Zone (Zone 1):
๐ท Buy Limit: 1.4325 โ 1.4350 (First institutional entry at OB/S&D zone ๐ฆ)
๐ Stop Loss:
๐ซ SL: Below 1.4280/50 (Institutional SAFE Zone โ Avoids Stop Hunts ๐)
๐ Take Profits:
๐ฏ TP1: 1.4380 (Internal Liquidity Reaction ๐)
๐ฏ TP2: 1.4450 (Liquidity Grab Confirmation ๐ฐ)
๐ฏ TP3: 1.4500 (Final Institutional Target ๐)
๐ Trade Type & Confidence:
๐ Type: Swing Trade / Intraday (Valid for 3โ5 Days) โณ
๐ Confidence Level: VERY HIGH ๐ฅ (Optimized Liquidity Grab Zone & OB Confluence).
๐ Execution Strategy:
โ
Aggressive Entry: Pending Buy Limit Order at 1.4325 โ 1.4350.
โ
Deeper Entry (Optional): If liquidity sweeps further, Buy Limit at 1.4280 โ 1.4300.
๐ Safe Entry: Wait for M15/H1 bullish rejection after liquidity grab before entering.
โ Invalidation: If price breaks below 1.4250 with strong bearish momentum โ
ALTERNATE:
๐ด Secondary Trade Setup โ Bearish Liquidity Grab Sell
๐ Entry Zone:
๐ฅ Sell Limit: 1.4505 โ 1.4530
๐ Stop Loss:
๐ซ SL: Above 1.4550 (Institutional SAFE Zone)
๐ Take Profits:
๐ฏ TP1: 1.4460 (Internal liquidity reaction ๐)
๐ฏ TP2: 1.4400 (Key discount zone ๐ต)
๐ฏ TP3: 1.4350 (Final deep discount target ๐ฝ)
๐ Trade Type & Confidence:
๐ Type: Intraday / Short-Term Swing (Valid for 24โ48 Hours) โณ
๐ Confidence Level: HIGH ๐ฅ (Liquidity grab dependent, Smart Money re-entry zone).
๐ Execution Strategy:
โ
Aggressive Entry: Pending Sell Limit Order at 1.4505โ1.4530.
๐ Safe Entry: Wait for M15/H1 bearish rejection after liquidity grab before selling.
โ Invalidation: If price closes above 1.4550 with bullish momentum โ
USDCAD ANALYSIS FOR UPCOMING WEEKI will be looking for SELL positions this upcoming week. Market is approaching the Golden Zone also known as the area from the 50-61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level. It does have potential to drop now but I'd prefer to wait a little longer for a higher probability, however you may trade as you intend. The "Sniper" entry would be the best entry with best R:R. The stop loss and Take profit levels intend to stay the same, I recommend a trailing stop and multiple entry's when necessary. Enjoy your WEEK traders, hope this was helpful.
USDCAD Under Pressure! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
USDCAD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 1.4439 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
My Stop Loss - 1.4484
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 1.4352
About Used Indicators:
The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
โโโโโโโโโโโ
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
quant zones for friday US and CAD dataCheck out our socials for some nice insights.
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Not as refined as our direct trade setups. More for advanced active traders.
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quant zones for friday
already in shorting zone
if US data and cad data spiked it higher even better for shorting.
Trumpโs Tariff Threat: USD/CAD Hits Three-Week HighTrumpโs Tariff Threat: USD/CAD Hits Three-Week High
As we reported on 3 February, Trumpโs tariffs pushed USD/CAD to a 22-year high.
However, a one-month tariff delay led to a sharp drop, sending USD/CAD to its 2025 low near 1.41550. As the end of the delay approaches, the pair has been climbing again since mid-February (as shown by the arrow).
Yesterday, President Trump confirmed that his proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods will take effect on 4 March. This dashed hopes for another delay and triggered a breakout above the 1.43600 resistance level.
Technical Analysis of USD/CAD
Above current levels, key resistance lies at 1.44600, which has held firm since mid-December. However, drastic measures from Trumpโs administration could drive further price movement within the blue-marked channel.
Expect volatility spikes ahead of Canadaโs GDP release, scheduled for today at 16:30 GMT+3.
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