USDCADUSD/CAD represents the exchange rate between the US Dollar (USD) and the Canadian Dollar (CAD), often referred to as the “Loonie” due to the loon bird featured on Canada’s one-dollar coin. This pair is heavily influenced by commodity prices, particularly crude oil, as Canada is a major oil exporter. When oil prices rise, the Canadian dollar typically strengthens, pushing USD/CAD lower, and vice versa. Other key factors affecting the pair include interest rate differentials between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, economic data from both countries, and overall risk sentiment in the global markets. The pair is known for its sensitivity to both energy markets and monetary policy shifts.
USDCAD_LMAX trade ideas
USDCAD - Is History Repeating Itself?Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 USDCAD has been overall bullish , trading within the rising wedge pattern marked in blue.
Today, USDCAD broke above its previous major high (marked in red).
🏹 As it retests this previous high, it will also intersect with the lower blue trendline, which acts as a dynamic support level.
📚 According to my trading style:
As #USDCAD approaches the red zone, I'll be watching for bullish reversal setups—such as a double bottom pattern, a trendline break, and more.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
USDCAD - Weekly forecast, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast:
1.39318 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
While the RSI support #1 at 47 is not broken, the probability of price decrease would be too low.
A trough is formed in daily chart at 1.34185 on 09/25/2024, so more gains to resistance(s) 1.44670, 1.46000, 1.46900 and more heights is expected.
Supports and Resistances:
1.46900
1.46000
1.38884
1.38168
1.37487
1.36876
1.36072
1.35404
1.34323
1.33664
1.31816
1.30929
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USDCAD trade ongoingSo, my idea from 3 weeks back in time played out early this week. My limit order was hit and this turned out to be a beautiful trade. Partials already closed with nice profits, and SL has been moved to entry. Currently, the trade has gained 390 pips, and is testing a quite respected support level that seems to be weakening.
USDCAD SHORT: Divergence in employment data!Canada's January employment change 76.0K vs 25.0K estimate.
US January non-farm payrolls +143K vs +170K expected
NFP data came in lower than expected while employment data came in stronger than expected for the CAD. Due to the result, we expected the pairs to move in opposite directions with the USD being the weaker of the two pairs.
NFP-How NFP Will Play Out Today?The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the January 2025 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report today, February 7, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The report indicates that the U.S. economy added 170,000 jobs in January, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. This reflects a moderation in job growth compared to December's addition of 256,000 jobs.
REUTERS.COM
Analysts attribute the slowdown in job growth to disruptions caused by wildfires in California and cold weather conditions, which are estimated to have reduced job numbers by approximately 40,000, particularly in sectors like accommodation, food services, and construction.
REUTERS.COM
Additionally, this month's report includes significant annual benchmark revisions, incorporating updated population weights and seasonal adjustment models. These revisions have led to a downward adjustment of previous employment estimates, indicating that fewer jobs were created in 2024 than initially reported.
BUSINESSINSIDER.COM
Financial markets have shown minimal movement in response to the report, as the figures align closely with economists' expectations. Futures linked to Wall Street's main indexes remained steady, with investors having anticipated a slowdown in job growth due to the aforementioned disruptions.
REUTERS.COM
In summary, while the January 2025 NFP report indicates a deceleration in job growth, the labor market remains resilient. However, potential challenges such as federal hiring freezes and trade tensions could impact future employment trends.
APNEWS.COM
USDCAD at a crucial support.USDCAD - Intraday
The selloff has posted an exhaustion count on the intraday chart.
We expect a reversal in this move.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 1.4350 will confirm the bullish momentum.
The measured move target is 1.4425.
We look to Buy at 1.4300 (stop at 1.4260)
Our profit targets will be 1.4400 and 1.4425
Resistance: 1.4350 / 1.4400 / 1.4425
Support: 1.4300 / 1.4275 / 1.4250
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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USDCAD Is Bearish! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for USDCAD.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 1.431.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 1.413 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
USDCAD: Tariffs delayedThe elephant in the room
The focal point of late has undoubtedly been US President Trump’s
proposed tariffs on Canadian goods shipped to the US. A 25% universal
tariff rate would be troublesome for the Canadian economy—despite
the exemption for energy products. But it would also have a notable
stagflationary effect on the US—making it an expensive strategy for Trump.
Further, Canada laid out its retaliation strategy which is designed to
respond in kind. We still think the tariffs will not be implemented in that
form and “deal making” will remain key in the Trump administration’s
strategy.
Canada not in a good place to begin with
Canada remains in a weak negotiation spot politically without a
functioning government in place and new elections likely later in 2Q.
Moreover, the economy is hurting given its high interest-rate sensitivity and
elevated Bank of Canada (BoC) policy rates for some time. Accordingly, the
BoC struck a cautious tone in their policy meeting last week and noted
their readiness to react to any economic shock in relation to US tariffs.
This would be much needed given fiscal stimulus is unlikely to come to the
rescue given Parliament remains prorogued until March.
USDCAD to retest 1.46 highs—even without tariffs
The market reaction to Trump’s proposed tariffs was rather benign and
was completely reversed following the delay in implementation. From here,
we do not see much of a risk premium priced into USDCAD and, rather,
the pair trades below what rates differentials suggest. While we do not
expect the tariffs to be implemented in the aforementioned form, a risk
of some adverse trade action remains. We think USDCAD can test 1.46
again in the coming months before edging lower later in the year. Broader
USD strength might also be enough to get there—even in the absence of
tariffs on Canada.
USD/CAD - Can NFP Reverse or Confirm Bearish Signal?Dear Friends,
How I see it:
If weekly body closes below bottom confluence of support -
This pair could potentially ignite a bearish trend for the longer term.
Keynote:
Fundamental / Political uncertainty can keep this pair in range
for extended periods of time.
Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis.
USDCAD, NFP impact. lets know the setup with targetHello Everyone as we have seen a shift in USDCAD rally from upside to downside, so I am expecting a selloff in the USDCAD further with very easy clean and clear setup for the downside.
As today is the NFP, keep the risk less, but the setup has high probability to perform and DELIVER THE TARGET.
USDCAD Could move 1,064pips up the next month.The reasons why I strongly believe this move will happen are the following:
According to the CFTC non-commercials are shorting CAD.
Non-commercials have 20,388 positions long and 68,914 positions shorts. This means that they are selling more CAD than they actually buying it. According to this info we could expect a move to the upside.
From a monthly perspective there is plenty of buy side liquidity in USDCAD.
If you look at the chart you will see two blue circles and a dollar bill between them . Those highs have not been liquidated yet. The price is aggressively chasing those highs. According to the explanation provided the price is extremely bullish because is moving to a strong liquidity area.
From monthly perspective the price already liquidates sell side liquidity.
If look at the chart you will see a yellow circle . The yellow circle represents the sell side liquidity that was liquidated by the price.
The price has bullish structure.
The price is making higher highs will doing so liquidating sell side liquidity.
There is a lot of optimists about the dollar getting stronger in the near future.
DXY has bullish structure.
The DXY is currently making a retracement. It is currently at 50%. We could assume that is very close to be ready because it took sell side liquidity as well.
In other words, the CAD is getting weaker and the USD stronger.
USDCAD BEARISH MOMENTUM The price has been in an uptrend since September, making higher highs and higher lows. A sharp rejection from the recent high indicates potential bearish pressure. The price is currently hovering near a support leveL , The chart also indicates a possible head and shoulders reversal pattern. If the price breaks below the (support), it may continue down towards the 1.38542 level. If the price bounces from the support zone, a temporary bullish retracement could occur before further downside.