- We are currently still stuck within the range created with NFP last Friday after the touch of the Daily Supply OB - Market opened this week with an impulsive move back to the premium zone of the range and bouncing off currently - At this juncture, it is still unclear if the actual retracement down is going to commence due to the range bound movement - Considering that the range has covered over a prolonged duration and distance has increased sizeably, the next movement of price will be huge - In order to determine next directional bias, the high and low of this range needs to be watched very closely - If the top of the range is liquidated with a wick and slips back into the range with no BOS, we will commence the retracement. If the bottom of the range is liquidated with a wick and slips back into the range, the converse is true and we may be heading further up to 1.09 and the weekly supply OB above for the final mitigation. - If the range is broken with candle body closes either direction, then the directional bias will be crystal clear
Hope this helps with your intraday analysis.
Good luck traders. I'll be chilling till London and see how price plays out 🥪🥪
Sometimes the reaction to a CPI reading data is often a short-term liquidity grab rather than a true shift in market direction. While a hotter-than-expected CPI print may initially cause the euro to dump as traders price in stronger Fed policy, this move is typically short-lived if commercials—large institutional players—are already positioned bullishly according to COT data. These institutions operate on a longer time horizon and often use major news-driven sell-offs as opportunities to accumulate at key levels where liquidity is highest. Retail traders, reacting emotionally to bad news, frequently short into these declines, only to get trapped when the market reverses from significant support zones. As shorts get squeezed and institutions continue buying, EU may resumes its larger trend, reinforcing that market positioning outweighs short-term fundamental narratives.
EURUSD not much buy volume now and may have to wait till London session to see the actual market flow with a bit of volatility to be noticed during asia session.