USDJPY.1000.DUB trade ideas
USDJPY Holds Above 2024 LowsUSDJPY is currently retesting its 2024 lows and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the uptrend from January 2023 to July 2024, near the critical 139 zone.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now in oversold territory—levels that have previously marked key reversals for USDJPY in both 2023 and 2024. If a reversal takes hold, potential resistance targets include 142, 145, 147, and 151.
However, if the support around 139 fails to hold, the pair may extend losses toward 138 and potentially 134, which aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
USDJPY Is Going Up! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 141.912.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 145.882 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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Market Analysis: USD/JPY Eyes Fresh IncreaseMarket Analysis: USD/JPY Eyes Fresh Increase
USD/JPY is rising and might gain pace above the 142.45 resistance.
Important Takeaways for USD/JPY Analysis Today
- USD/JPY climbed higher above the 141.00 and 141.65 levels.
- There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at 141.20 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh upward move from the 140.00 zone. The US Dollar gained bullish momentum above 141.65 against the Japanese Yen.
There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at 141.20. It even cleared the 50-hour simple moving average and 142.45. The pair climbed above 143.00 and traded as high as 143.21 before there was a downside correction.
The pair dipped below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 139.88 swing low to the 143.21 high. The current price action above the 141.65 level is positive.
Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chart is near 142.45. The first major resistance is near 143.20. If there is a close above the 143.20 level and the RSI moves above 75, the pair could rise toward 144.50.
The next major resistance is near 145.00, above which the pair could test 148.00 in the coming days. On the downside, the first major support is 141.65 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 139.88 swing low to the 143.21 high.
The next major support is visible near the 141.00 level. If there is a close below 141.00, the pair could decline steadily. In the stated case, the pair might drop toward the 139.90 support zone. The next stop for the bears may perhaps be near the 137.50 region.
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Fundamental Market Analysis for April 23, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) declined against its US counterpart for a second straight day on Wednesday and retreated further from the multi-month peak reached the previous day. The Trump administration officials' comforting comments on US-China trade talks triggered a sharp rebound in global risk sentiment, which in turn had a strong impact on traditional safe-haven assets, including the yen. Moreover, a slight recovery in the US dollar (USD) from multi-year lows, supported by easing concerns over Federal Reserve (Fed) independence, pushed the USD/JPY pair to a one-week high, a level above 143.000 during the Asian session.
Growing optimism that the US and Japan are moving closer to a temporary trade agreement is helping the yen, which reacted weakly to unimpressive domestic PMIs, to pause its intraday decline. In addition, strengthening expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates in 2025 is keeping JPY bears from betting aggressively. Meanwhile, investors are losing confidence in the US economy amid Trump's rapidly shifting stance on trade policy. This, as well as bets that the Fed will soon resume its rate-cutting cycle, is holding back the dollar and taking the USD/JPY pair below 142.000 in the last hour.
Trading recommendation: SELL 141.700, SL 142.100, TP 140.500
Long trade
Trade Overview: USDJPY Long Position
Entry Price: 140.312
Profit Target: 143.185 (+2.05%)
Stop Loss: 139.891 (–0.30%)
Risk-Reward Ratio: 6.82
🕑 Entry Time: 2:00 PM
📅 Date: Tuesday, 22nd April 2025
🌏 Session: Tokyo PM
⏱ Observed Timeframe: 5-Minute TF
USDJPY showed a bullish internal break of structure on the 5-minute timeframe, confirming short-term strength and suggesting a shift in intraday trend.
Whykoff narrative
Dollar bounces back after Euro and Yen hit key levels | FX ReseaTrading conditions are getting back to fuller form following the Easter break. After taking another big beating in the holiday-thin trade, we're finally seeing some profit-taking on US dollar shorts from shorter-term accounts. We haven’t seen the euro above 1.15 or dollar-yen below 140 for some time, which could be adding to the excuse for some mild profit-taking. It's also possible the buck is feeling a little better with US equity futures pointing up. After all the recent narrative has been selling everything US, so a bounce in stocks could very well be helping the dollar to recover.
A Japanese Ministry of Finance survey revealed President Trump’s tariffs are already hurting about 10% of Japanese firms, with auto companies reporting cancelled orders and reduced factory hours. Tourism businesses are also fearing a stronger yen could deter visitors.
Meanwhile, Trump has continued to pressure the Federal Reserve, warning of an economic slowdown unless interest rates are cut immediately. In Germany, the government downgraded its 2025 economic outlook to stagnation from a prior 0.3% growth forecast. In the UK, BOE’s Green noted a weaker dollar could ease UK inflation but expressed concern over rising inflation expectations.
Looking ahead, we get a round of Fed speakers including Jefferson, Harker, Kashkari, Barkin, and Cougler, who are all likely to defend Fed Chair Powell and stress the Fed’s independence.
USDJPY Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDJPY for a selling opportunity around 141.600 zone, USDJPY is trading in downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 141.600 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Potential bullish rise?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 140.98
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 140.24
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 142.41
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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JPYUSD - might pull backThis could pull back for a couple of months. Is this move down on JPYUSD gonna fuel rally in Equities? Gold looks like it wants to pull back (may be to 21 EMA or even a deeper correction to $2000/OZ). DXY might have a relief rally or just chop sideways. US10Y could drop to 3.4%. Have to watch SPX, GOLD, GOLD/SPX ratio, BTC/USD, BTC/GLX, US10Y, DXY, JPY/USD and VIX. We have to figure out if the secular bear market is already underway on equities (which means we sell the bounce on equities and buy the dip on GOLD), or if there is more blow off top left in equities. Only time will tell. Massive opportunities ahead either way. So protect your capital
Yen extends gains, BOJ Core CPI lower than expectedThe Japanese yen has rallied for a third straight day. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 140.38, down 0.33% on the day. The yen has climbed 1.3% since Thursday, as the US dollar is under pressure against the major currencies.
BoJ Core CPI, a key inflation indicator, remained at 2.2% for a third consecutive month in March, shy of the forecast of 2.4%. This follows Japan's National Core CPI, which rose 3.2% y/y, matching expectations but higher than the 3.0% gain in February. National CPI eased to 3.6%, down from 3.7% in February and below the market estimate of 3.7%.
The inflation data comes a week before the BoJ's policy meeting next week. The central bank has signaled that it will continue to raise interest rates as wages and inflation have been rising. However, the risks to inflation and growth from US tariffs have muddied the rate outlook and the BoJ may decide to push off another hike until later in the year.
The finance ministers of Japan and the US will meet later this week, as Tokyo looks to carve out some tariff exemptions. The BoJ is likely to sit tight and see if the talks lead to a breakthrough. The US is expected to bring up the exchange rate, as President Trump has accused Japan of deliberately keeping the yen weak in order to protect its export sector.
There are no key releases out of the US today, but we'll hear from three FOMC members later today. The markets have priced in a rate cut in May at 10%, with a 62% probability of a rate cut in June.
USD/JPY - continues the downtrendOn USD/JPY , it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 140.810. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated.
I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again.
Fair Value GAP (FVG) and Volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go short on this trade.
Happy trading,
Dale
Daily Analysis – USD/JPY📉🔽 Daily Analysis – USD/JPY
Overall Trend:
The pair is currently in a downtrend, with continued selling pressure dominating the market.
Overbought Condition:
We’ve noticed signs of exhaustion in price movement, suggesting a potential temporary correction.
Next Strategy:
We’re waiting for a price pullback towards strong supply zones, where selling would be the most suitable option, with clear targets in place.
⚡️ Tip:
Closely monitor current price action and be ready to enter the market once the anticipated correction occurs.