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USDJPY.P trade ideas

Yen VS Dollar; Trade with cautionGlobal financial markets are bracing for a possible Fed rate cut. Accordingly, forex markets have priced in the anticipated rate cut. September CPI data indicated US inflation is on course towards 2%; seems like the prevailing interest rates are working. Blackrock thinks the Fed will be cautious with a 25-bps rate cut as opposed to a 50-bps rate cut. There is also the remote possibility that the Fed will be cautious and maintain the rates. Ostensibly, it seems the markets have aggressively priced in a rate cut that has seen the dollar weaken against major currencies. Looking at cross Yen pairs, bearish momentum is dominant in Q3 OF 2024. However, we have seen price imbalance and price inefficiency across all Yen pairs that must be corrected. For this imbalance to be corrected, we require the US Dollar to rise. All factors held constant, retaining rates or cutting rates lesser than expected will spook the markets and we could see the dollar strengthen against the Yen and other major global currencies. Turning to the US Dollar index, we see a potential for further weakening before the index rises targeting 105 to 110 price levels.
by morrisgitau
#001 USDJPY DCAEntered when price came back to the 60sma, and confluence with the stochastics 20,1,1. I will be adding into my losers when price comes back to the pre-marked levels as shown in the chart. Every pip is 0.01cents, and I do not set any stop loss. I am testing this out on my other fool around account but I hope I do not blow it. Warning regarding News Days Do not trade until the news has been released and the market has calmed down, reason being, before news release, price tends to go flat and you will just be wasting your time and energy hoping for price to move in your intended direction or against your intended direction, therefore, exerting your mental capital more than neccesary. Secondly, especially when trading on the minutes time frame, when news get released, there's a high possibility that volatility will take you out. Or, if you do not set any stop loss, it would bring you to the opposite side of the room for over 100pips (for example) and you have to crawl your way back to at least breakeven.
Long
by ProfessionalDuckHunter
1
USDJPY Daily Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias Expected Amid Dovish USDJPY Daily Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias Expected Amid Dovish Fed and Safe-Haven Demand for Yen 14/11/2024 Introduction Today’s outlook for USDJPY suggests a slight bearish bias, driven by key factors favoring the Japanese yen (JPY) over the U.S. dollar (USD). A cautious stance from the Federal Reserve, global uncertainty driving safe-haven demand for the yen, and stable policy signals from the Bank of Japan are all putting downward pressure on USDJPY. This article provides an in-depth look at the fundamental drivers shaping the USDJPY trend today, offering valuable insights for traders. --- Key Drivers Influencing USDJPY Today 1. Dovish Federal Reserve and Softening U.S. Dollar Recent U.S. economic data, including moderate inflation figures and stable but unspectacular labor market performance, have led the Federal Reserve to signal a possible hold on further rate hikes. This dovish shift is weakening the U.S. dollar, as traders expect the Fed to be cautious in adjusting rates in the near term. A softer dollar environment supports a bearish trend for USDJPY, as it reduces USD appeal against other currencies. 2. Increased Safe-Haven Demand Boosting Yen The Japanese yen is traditionally regarded as a safe-haven currency, attracting investors during times of global economic uncertainty. With ongoing concerns in some international markets, demand for the yen has increased as investors look for stability. This shift in risk sentiment supports a bearish USDJPY outlook, as the yen’s appeal as a secure asset rises. 3. Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Policy Stability While the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has largely maintained its dovish policy approach, recent signals suggest it may adjust if inflation shows sustainable improvement. Even the slight possibility of a shift has bolstered confidence in the yen. By holding steady and keeping an eye on inflation targets, the BoJ has supported the JPY’s position, which creates additional downward pressure on USDJPY. 4. Technical Indicators Pointing to a Bearish Trend USDJPY is approaching resistance levels that have proven challenging in previous sessions, and the pair is trading below its 50-day moving average, which typically signals a downtrend. Key indicators like the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) are also showing bearish signals, supporting the expectation of a slight bearish bias today. --- Technical Analysis Indicators Supporting a Bearish Outlook Moving Averages and RSI USDJPY is currently trading below its 50-day moving average, indicating that downward momentum is intact. The RSI is trending lower but not yet oversold, which implies that there is room for further downside movement. MACD and Volume Analysis The MACD has produced a bearish crossover, a sign of potential downward continuation. Volume analysis also indicates growing selling interest, aligning with today’s bearish bias for USDJPY. --- Conclusion With a dovish Fed reducing the USD’s appeal, safe-haven demand for the yen, and technical indicators signaling downside potential, USDJPY is expected to maintain a slight bearish bias today. Traders should monitor key economic developments and risk sentiment indicators to gauge further market direction. --- SEO Tags: - #USDJPYforecast - #USDJPYanalysis - #USDJPYtechnicalanalysis - #ForexTradingUSDJPY - #JapaneseYenOutlook - #USDJPYtoday - #USDWeakness - #ForexMarketAnalysis - #USDJPYprediction
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
The yen continued to lose value as the dollar strengthened The Japanese yen has dropped to its lowest since late July due to the dollar's strength. Concerns about rising US inflation following Trump's election have diminished the likelihood of the Fed’s further rate cuts. However, if the yen's decline continues, the BoJ may consider intervening in the FX rate and could become more inclined to raise interest rates. Reflecting this situation, Japan's five-year government bond yields have reached a 15-year high as the chances of a BoJ rate hike increase. USDJPY sustained its uptrend and advanced to 155.70. The price is approaching the ascending channel’s upper bound, maintaining bullish momentum. If USDJPY breaches the channel’s upper bound, the price could gain upward momentum toward 157.50, the highest since last July. Conversely, if USDJPY fails to hold above EMA21, the price may fall further to 153.10, where EMA78 coincides.
by inkicho_exness
USDJPY Daily Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias Expected Amid Dollar USDJPY Daily Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias Expected Amid Dollar Weakness and Yen Strength 13/11/2024 Introduction The outlook for USDJPY today points toward a slight bearish bias, driven by factors that favor the Japanese yen (JPY) over the U.S. dollar (USD). As recent U.S. economic data moderates expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes, and with the yen drawing safe-haven interest, USDJPY could experience downward pressure. This article provides a brief analysis of key drivers influencing USDJPY, offering valuable insights for forex traders. --- Key Drivers Influencing USDJPY Today 1. Weaker U.S. Dollar Amid Dovish Federal Reserve Outlook Recent U.S. economic data, including softer inflation readings and mixed labor market performance, has dampened expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes. With inflation pressures appearing to ease, the Fed may adopt a more cautious approach, reducing the appeal of the USD. A softer dollar generally favors a bearish USDJPY trend, especially as the yen gains safe-haven demand. 2. Potential Yen Strength from Safe-Haven Demand The Japanese yen traditionally serves as a safe-haven currency, attracting demand during periods of global uncertainty. With mixed economic outlooks in major global markets, investor risk aversion has increased, contributing to yen demand. This rise in safe-haven sentiment provides bearish momentum for USDJPY, especially as traders shift toward lower-risk assets. 3. Bank of Japan’s Stable Policy Adds Support for Yen While the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained its dovish monetary stance, recent statements suggest it could adjust its policies if inflation shows sustained improvement. The prospect of a potential policy shift boosts confidence in the yen, supporting a slight bearish trend in USDJPY. The yen’s stability underpins its appeal as an alternative to a softer dollar in today’s market conditions. 4. Technical Indicators Signaling Downward Momentum Technically, USDJPY is approaching resistance levels that have previously capped upward movements. The pair is trading below its 50-day moving average, which often signals a bearish trend. Both the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) show signs of downward pressure, further supporting the bearish bias in USDJPY today. --- Technical Analysis Indicators Supporting a Bearish Outlook Moving Averages and RSI USDJPY remains below its 50-day moving average, a key bearish indicator that suggests continued downward movement. The RSI is trending lower, indicating building selling pressure without reaching oversold conditions, reinforcing a bearish bias. MACD and Volume Trends The MACD is showing a bearish crossover, supporting expectations for further declines. Volume trends reflect an increase in selling activity, aligning with today’s slight bearish outlook for USDJPY. --- Conclusion With U.S. dollar softness, safe-haven demand for the yen, and technical indicators favoring downside potential, USDJPY is expected to maintain a slight bearish bias today. Traders should watch for any significant changes in global risk sentiment and U.S. economic data that could impact the pair’s direction. --- SEO Tags: - #USDJPYforecast - #USDJPYanalysis - #USDJPYtechnicalanalysis - #ForexTradingUSDJPY - #JapaneseYenOutlook - #USDJPYtoday - #USDWeakness - #ForexMarketAnalysis - #USDJPYprediction
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
1
USD/JPY: Ready to Break 154.8 and Push to New HighsExpectations around Trump's import tariffs are supporting U.S. bond yields, strengthening the USD and continuing to pressure JPY. The recent depreciation of JPY could lead to potential intervention from the Japanese government, preventing further short-selling ahead of the U.S. consumer inflation data release. Looking at the price chart, the USD/JPY pair has maintained a steady uptrend for an extended period, reflecting the strength of the USD relative to JPY. Recently, the pair has broken through significant resistance levels and continues to set new highs, reinforcing the current bullish trend. In the short term, there is a strong possibility that the pair could break the 154.8 resistance level. This level is currently a key point of resistance, but given the current upward momentum, the price is likely to surpass it and continue rising. An additional factor supporting this potential move is the upward-sloping trendline, which remains intact and indicates that the bullish trend is being sustained. With these factors in mind, it is reasonable to expect the USD/JPY pair to continue its upward trend in the near term, particularly if the 154.8 resistance level is broken. The stable uptrend and solid support from the trendline suggest that the price has the potential to continue rising, opening up opportunities for new highs.
by Alisa_Rokosz
USDJPY View!!(MaceNews) – Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was re-elected in a rare parliamentary run-off vote on Monday after the ruling coalition lost a majority in the Lower House general election about two weeks ago as many voters, weary of high costs, punished Ishiba’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party for its political funding scandal. Ishiba continues to face the challenge of running a minority government in a hung parliament. He was scheduled to be sworn as Japan’s 103rd prime minister late on Monday.
Long
by FXBANkthe8055
Weekly Prediction and Recap from last weekWhat Happened This Week: The USD/JPY pair continued to trade within a bullish structure, reflecting overall dollar strength as expected. Despite facing a significant resistance level around 154.324, the pair did not convincingly break this level, indicating some selling pressure near this zone. The primary driver for the dollar's strength this week was anticipation around U.S. economic data and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with an increasing probability of a rate hike. The market also digested political developments in the U.S. and their potential impact on dollar strength. The Japanese yen weakened further, hitting new three-month lows as economic conditions in Japan remain soft, and the Bank of Japan has shown no significant shift toward tightening monetary policy. On the daily chart, USD/JPY attempted multiple times to break above the 154.324 resistance level but was met with selling pressure, leading to consolidation near this level. The anchored volume resistance at 154.324 continues to act as a strong barrier, signaling that while bulls have momentum, they need more volume to push the price higher. Daily movements were influenced by U.S. dollar sentiment, with periods of volatility around news on U.S. interest rates and economic data. Updated Weekly Analysis for Upcoming Week Bullish Bias: USD/JPY remains in an uptrend on the weekly chart, supported by strong U.S. fundamentals and the prospect of a Fed rate hike. Key Resistance Level: The 154.324 level remains the critical barrier. If the pair closes above this level, it would confirm a breakout, opening the way to targets around 157.383 and 158.313. Consolidation Potential: If USD/JPY fails to break 154.324 again, we could see the pair consolidate between 152–154.324. A failure to break higher may also prompt a pullback toward the 150.000 level, which serves as strong weekly support. Bullish Continuation Scenario: If USD/JPY breaks and closes above 154.324 on the daily chart, it would signal potential continuation to the next resistance zone at 157.383. This breakout would align with the broader weekly uptrend, indicating increased bullish momentum. Bearish/Consolidation Scenario: If the price fails to break above 154.324, expect USD/JPY to potentially pull back toward daily support around 152.000 or lower. This would signal a period of consolidation, especially if the dollar faces any negative news or if U.S. yields stall. Risk Management and Final Thoughts Bullish Breakout Entry: Only consider a buy position if the price decisively closes above 154.324. Both daily and weekly close above this level would indicate stronger conviction among buyers. Patience on Rejection: If USD/JPY fails to close above 154.324, be prepared for possible consolidation or a pullback to lower levels. Avoid entering prematurely if the breakout isn’t clear. Stop-Loss Strategy: Given current volatility, it’s essential to keep SL tight near key support levels to protect against unexpected reversals, especially with major economic events upcoming.
by JasieKK
¥155 remains an important hurdle for the dollarCompared to several other major pairs in recent days, dollar-yen’s next direction seems a lot less clear. The Japanese government is likely to monitor the possible impact of Donald Trump’s election on Japan’s economy but, for the moment, it seems to be less negative compared to the EU. Losses since 7 November haven’t been accompanied by very high volume of selling, which would usually suggest profit-taking rather than the start of a new downtrend or sideways trend. There’s also no longer any indication of overbought based on either the slow stochastic or Bollinger Bands. A close above ¥155 could be a reliable signal that the uptrend will continue, but that depends on American inflation on 13 November, news from Japan and overall sentiment. The 50 SMA from Bands is in the process of golden crossing the 100 SMA around the 38.2% weekly Fibonacci retracement, so ¥148.20 is likely to be a strong support in the event of a fairly deep retracement. Equally, the 20 SMA has been an active dynamic support in recent days. A move back to the area of the 50% Fibo, the main technical reference in August-September, seems very unfavourable for now. This is my personal opinion which does not represent the opinion of Exness.
by Michael_Stark_Exness
USDJPY Long after retracement to FIB level.After a short holiday and the fuss of the US elections and the FED decision I started looking for positions. I just entered at market buying the USDJPY at 152.68 SL 151.50 and TP 155.50. There was an impulse wave breaking to the upside and has retraced back down to the 0.618 fibonacci level probably due to intervention comments from the BoJ The Market seems to favour the Trump victory and this has supported the USD and stocks hence this trade idea. P.S. I shall decide later today whether to hold this trade open over the weekend. P.P.S. China all be releasing data over the weekend so be aware if you are trading AUD or NZD.
Long
by ratcatcher
Japan’s consumer spending slips, yen extends gainsThe Japanese yen has posted gains on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 152.38, down 0.36% on the day. The yen has taken traders on a roller-coaster ride this week, plunging 2% on Wednesday and rebounding on Thursday with a 1.1% gain. Japan’s household spending fell by 1.1% y/y in September, following a 1.9% drop in August. This was better than the market estimate of -2.1%. Household spending has declined in 10 of the past 12 months, as consumer confidence fell in October and inflation is relatively high. On a monthly basis, household spending decreased 1.3%, after a strong 2% gain in August. This beat the market estimate of 0.7%. The weak yen is also weighing on consumers, who are being squeezed as their purchasing power has fallen. The yen fell to three-month lows this week against the dollar and if the downswing continues, the Bank of Japan will be under pressure to respond with a rate hike. Although consumers are holding tight on the purse strings, wages have been rising and the BoJ is hopeful that will translate into increased consumer spending and demand-driven inflation. Consumer spending makes up more than half of the economy and BoJ is unlikely to make further rate hikes until it sees stronger consumer spending. The markets don’t expect a rate hike until early 2025. The Federal Reserve didn’t surprise anyone with a 25-basis point rate cut on Wednesday. This is the second cut in the easing cycle after an oversized 50-bp chop in September. The vote was unanimous and unlike the Bank of Japan, the Fed has been transparent and telegraphed its plan to cut rates ahead of the meeting. The Fed is expected to continue cutting rates in the coming meeting and will be keeping a close eye on inflation and employment reports. USD/JPY faces resistance at 153.44 and 154.17 152.16 and 151.43 are the next support levels
by OANDA
USDJPY_108 2024.11.08 04:58:04 Trading Signal SELLFrankPro Signal for USDJPY_108 Type: Screen Signal: SELL TP: 152.5545 SL: 152.803 Entry Price: 152.732 Analysis for USDJPY Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Probably Up LT= Strong Up Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Up LT=Up ST=Up LT=Up ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analysis, here are my predictions for the USD/JPY pair: **Short-term (next few days/week):** * The pair is expected to test the support area near 151.85 before potentially rebounding and continuing its growth. * The current retracement from recent highs is seen as a minor correction, and the pair is likely to resume its upward trend. * The support levels at 150.78 and 149.77 are expected to hold, and the pair is likely to bounce back from these levels. * **Prediction:** The price is expected to go **UP** in the short-term, with a potential target above 159.65. **Long-term (next few weeks/months):** * The bullish channel and moving averages indicate a long-term bullish trend. * Trump's policies are expected to support the US dollar and put pressure on the yen, which could lead to further gains for the USD/JPY pair. * The Bank of Japan's potential end to its negative interest rate policy in 2024 could also support the yen, but this is not expected to happen until early 2025. * **Prediction:** The price is expected to go **UP** in the long-term, with a potential target above 159.65 and possibly even higher. **Note:** The predictions are based on the analysis provided and are subject to change based on new market developments and data releases. Result: ST=Up LT=Up Analysis Method(1) Based on the provided analysis, here are my predictions for the USD/JPY currency pair: **Short-term (next few days to a week):** The price is expected to **go up**. The analysis suggests that the USD/JPY pair will continue its upward trend, with forecasts indicating a potential test of the support area near 151.85 before rebounding and continuing growth towards the area above 159.65. The pair has already pushed past several resistance levels, and a breakout of the resistance level and consolidation above 155.05 would confirm the price rise. **Long-term (next few weeks to months):** The price is expected to **go up** as well. The analysis highlights several factors that support a strong upward trend for the USD/JPY pair, including the US presidential election outcome, expectations of more cautious Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the potential for rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. Additionally, the technical analysis suggests that the pair is likely to continue its growth towards the area above 159.65. Overall, both short-term and long-term analyses suggest that the USD/JPY pair is likely to experience an upward trend, driven by a combination of economic and political factors. Result: ST=Up LT=Up Analysis Method(2) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the USD/JPY pair's expected price movement in both the short-term and long-term: **Short-term (next few days to a week):** * The pair has backed off from its recent highs and is expected to test the support area near 151.85. * A potential upward rebound and continued growth to the area above 159.65 is forecasted. * However, if the pair falls and breaks through the 150.25 level, it would indicate a breakout of the support area and a continued decline. * Given the mixed market sentiment and the US Dollar's rally halt, I expect the price to **stay the same** or experience a **slight decline** in the short-term, potentially testing the 151.85 support level. **Long-term (next few weeks to months):** * The outcome of the US presidential election and Donald Trump's policies are expected to lead to higher inflation and interest rates, supporting the US Dollar. * Japan's National core CPI acceleration and potential changes to the Bank of Japan's negative interest rate policy could impact the yen's value. * The technical analysis suggests a potential upward rebound and continued growth to the area above 159.65. * Considering these factors, I expect the price to **go up** in the long-term, potentially breaking through the resistance level and consolidating above 155.05. Please note that these assessments are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new market data and events emerge. Result: ST=Down LT=Up
Short
by orbborisson
USDJPY Analysis for November 6, 2024: Slight Bullish Bias DrivenUSDJPY Analysis for November 6, 2024: Slight Bullish Bias Driven by Key Market Fundamentals As of November 6, 2024, USDJPY appears to have a slightly bullish bias, influenced by various fundamental factors and recent shifts in market conditions. Traders and investors are paying close attention to developments affecting both the US dollar (USD) and the Japanese yen (JPY) as economic data and policy expectations guide market sentiment. Here’s a look at the key drivers contributing to USDJPY’s bullish outlook today. Key Drivers Supporting a Bullish Bias for USDJPY 1. Federal Reserve’s Hawkish Stance The Federal Reserve has maintained a hawkish stance, signaling a commitment to keeping interest rates elevated for an extended period. This approach supports the USD as higher yields attract investors, driving demand and potentially leading to further gains in USDJPY. If the Fed continues to prioritize inflation control, this could provide a steady tailwind for the dollar against the yen. 2. Divergent Monetary Policies Between the US and Japan While the Fed remains hawkish, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy. The BoJ has shown little intention of changing its low-interest-rate environment, making JPY less attractive in comparison to USD. This divergence in monetary policy provides a bullish edge for USDJPY as the yield differential widens. 3. Strong US Economic Data Recent economic data from the US, including robust GDP growth and stable employment figures, further supports USD strength. These indicators suggest a resilient economy, giving the Federal Reserve more flexibility to maintain or even raise rates. Consequently, the USD is positioned favorably against the yen in the near term. 4. Risk Appetite Supporting USD over JPY Although JPY traditionally benefits as a safe-haven currency during periods of market uncertainty, today’s risk sentiment leans toward moderate optimism. As risk appetite grows, traders are more likely to favor the USD over JPY, adding another layer of support to the USDJPY’s bullish momentum. Technical Indicators Highlight Potential Upside From a technical perspective, USDJPY is trading above its key support level at 150.00, a sign of bullish resilience. If USDJPY can break above the 150.80 resistance, it may pave the way for further gains toward the 151.50 mark. Conclusion In summary, today’s analysis indicates a slightly bullish bias for USDJPY, driven by the Fed’s hawkish stance, divergent monetary policies, positive US economic data, and favorable risk sentiment. Traders should watch for potential resistance levels that could influence USDJPY’s momentum in the short term. Tags: #USDJPYanalysis #Japaneseyenforecast #Forexmarkettrends #USdollaroutlook #FederalReservepolicyimpact #USDJPYNovember62024 #Interestratedivergence #Forexbullishtrends #Riskappetitecurrencytrading
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
USD / JPYKey Characteristics of USD/JPY: Volatility: USD/JPY often shows moderate to low volatility relative to some other major pairs, although it can experience significant movement in response to economic data and policy changes. Economic Influences: The pair is highly sensitive to economic indicators from both the U.S. and Japan, including interest rate decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), inflation rates, GDP, and trade balances. Interest Rate Differential: A key driver of USD/JPY is the interest rate differential between the two countries. The U.S. has maintained relatively high interest rates recently, while Japan has had ultra-low or negative rates, which often leads to a stronger dollar against the yen. Global Sentiment and Safe-Haven Demand: The yen is often considered a "safe-haven" currency, meaning that during times of global risk or uncertainty, the yen may strengthen as investors seek safer assets. Conversely, during periods of risk-taking, the dollar typically strengthens relative to the yen.
by ChartsWithAI
USDJPY_108 2024.11.05 03:53:06 Trading Signal SELLFrankPro Signal for USDJPY_108 Type: Screen Signal: SELL TP: 152.285 SL: 152.404 Entry Price: 152.37 Analysis for USDJPY Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Probably Down LT= Probably Up Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Up LT=Up ST=Down LT=Down ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analysis, here are my expectations for the USD/JPY pair: **Short-term (next few days to a week):** * The pair is expected to test the support level near 150.25 before potentially rebounding and continuing its growth. * A breakout above the resistance area and closing above 154.45 would confirm this growth. * Given the soft nonfarm payrolls report expected, the pair might experience some volatility, but the overall trend suggests a rebound and continuation of growth. **Expected price movement:** Up **Long-term (next few weeks to a month):** * The pair has reclaimed the 151.00-152.00 region, which could act as new support, and could target levels such as 155.60 and even 160.00 in the coming weeks. * The US Dollar Index (DXY) breaking above its 104.50 resistance level could further support the pair's growth. * Political instability in Japan and a strong US economy are expected to continue contributing to the yen's weakness. **Expected price movement:** Up **Note:** The Elliott Wave analysis suggests potential continued growth, but it's essential to consider the broader market context and other technical indicators for a comprehensive view. Overall, both short-term and long-term analyses suggest that the USD/JPY pair is expected to go up, with some potential volatility in the short-term due to the soft nonfarm payrolls report. Result: ST=Up LT=Up Analysis Method(1) **Short-term Analysis (next few days/week):** Based on the technical analysis, the USD/JPY pair is expected to experience a pause in its recent up move due to the overstretched condition of the JPY implied volatility index. The pair is currently under pressure near the psychological resistance of 150.00, and a break below 143.60 intermediate support could trigger renewed weakness. However, a clearance above 149.30 could extend the rebound. Given these conditions, the short-term outlook is **neutral to slightly bearish**, with a potential downside move to 143.60 or lower if the support is broken. **Long-term Analysis (rest of 2024 and beyond):** The long-term forecast suggests that the USD/JPY pair will trade within a range of ¥138 to ¥150 in 2024. Analysts predict a modest strengthening of the US Dollar against the yen until the end of the year, with the pair expected to close at ¥145.555 in December. However, the long-term analysis also suggests that bears are dominating the market, with the price moving at the lower boundary of Bollinger Bands. This indicates a potential **downside bias** in the long term, with the pair potentially declining to ¥140 or lower by the end of the year. Overall, the USD/JPY pair is expected to experience a short-term pause or potential downside move, followed by a long-term decline to ¥140 or lower by the end of 2024. Result: ST=Down LT=Down Analysis Method(2) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the USD/JPY pair's expected price movement in both the short-term and long-term: **Short-term (next few days to a week):** * The pair is currently experiencing selling pressure near the psychological resistance of 150.00, and the prospect of market volatility ahead of the US presidential election is acting as a headwind for the yen carry trade, benefiting the Japanese Yen. * The technical analysis suggests that the pair may test the support level near 150.25, with potential for an upward rebound. * However, the VIX index is above 20, indicating increased volatility, which could lead to a breakout below 148.45, indicating a continuation of the decline. * Given these factors, I expect the price to **go down** in the short-term, potentially testing the support level near 150.25 or even breaking below 148.45. **Long-term (next few weeks to months):** * The fundamental factors suggest that the US Dollar's outlook is firm despite current pressures, with traders pricing out larger-than-usual interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. * The potential for a bullish reclaim of the 151.00-152.00 region could lead to targets of 155.60 and even 160.00 if the US Dollar strengthens across the board. * The Bank of Japan's potential ending of its negative interest rate policy could support the Yen, but this is not expected to have a significant impact in the long-term. * Given these factors, I expect the price to **go up** in the long-term, potentially breaking above 154.45 and reaching targets of 155.60 and 160.00. Please note that these predictions are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new information becomes available. Result: ST=Down LT=Up
Short
by orbborisson