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Dollar hit early on US election volatility | FX ResearchMomentum has swung back towards Harris over the weekend and this is having a clear impact on the dollar-bullish Trump trade. The US dollar has sold off quite aggressively across the board though we haven't seen much impact in the world of equities where us equity futures are trading up ahead of the US open on Friday. The US jobs report gave off some mixed signals with payrolls coming in well below forecasts but the hourly earnings coming in hot on net, the expectation remains for two more rate cuts at the fed between now and year end elsewhere. Oil prices are on the rise after OPEC agreed to push back its December production increase by one month and Iran's supreme leader warned enemies will receive a crushing response on the data front. Eurozone and German manufacturing PM I reads were solid while Centex investor confidence improved. Looking ahead, we get us factory orders and some ECB speak. Otherwise, the yen has been a little better bid today, perhaps after the BOJ signaled it would be prepared to hike rates more if its outlook was met. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
USDJPY Possible ScenariosWe can expect a correction in USDJPY down to the demand zone shown on the chart, which should prepare it for the main movement. However, this main bullish movement is actually a retracement in the bigger picture, so we should be ready to monitor closely when it reaches the supply zone. Please note that this analysis is not intended as financial advice. Each individual should assume responsibility for their own trades. The purpose of this post is to provide ideas and inspiration, encouraging readers to view the chart from different perspectives. Always conduct your own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.
by Biaxar
USDJPY_108 2024.11.04 10:25:05 Trading Signal SELLFrankPro Signal for USDJPY_108 Type: Screen Signal: SELL TP: 151.8175 SL: 152.031 Entry Price: 151.97 Analysis for USDJPY Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Probably Down LT= Probably Up Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Up LT=Up ST=Down LT=Down ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analysis, here are my expectations for the USD/JPY pair: **Short-term (next few days to a week):** * The pair is expected to test the support level near 150.25 before potentially rebounding and continuing its growth. * A breakout above the resistance area and closing above 154.45 would confirm this growth. * Given the soft nonfarm payrolls report expected, the pair might experience some volatility, but the overall trend suggests a rebound and continuation of growth. **Expected price movement:** Up **Long-term (next few weeks to a month):** * The pair has reclaimed the 151.00-152.00 region, which could act as new support, and could target levels such as 155.60 and even 160.00 in the coming weeks. * The US Dollar Index (DXY) breaking above its 104.50 resistance level could further support the pair's growth. * Political instability in Japan and a strong US economy are expected to continue contributing to the yen's weakness. **Expected price movement:** Up **Note:** The Elliott Wave analysis suggests potential continued growth, but it's essential to consider the broader market context and other technical indicators for a comprehensive view. Overall, both short-term and long-term analyses suggest that the USD/JPY pair is expected to go up, with some potential volatility in the short-term due to the soft nonfarm payrolls report. Result: ST=Up LT=Up Analysis Method(1) **Short-term Analysis (next few days/week):** Based on the technical analysis, the USD/JPY pair is expected to experience a pause in its recent up move due to the overstretched condition of the JPY implied volatility index. The pair is currently under pressure near the psychological resistance of 150.00, and a break below 143.60 intermediate support could trigger renewed weakness. However, a clearance above 149.30 could extend the rebound. Given these conditions, the short-term outlook is **neutral to slightly bearish**, with a potential downside move to 143.60 or lower if the support is broken. **Long-term Analysis (rest of 2024 and beyond):** The long-term forecast suggests that the USD/JPY pair will trade within a range of ¥138 to ¥150 in 2024. Analysts predict a modest strengthening of the US Dollar against the yen until the end of the year, with the pair expected to close at ¥145.555 in December. However, the long-term analysis also suggests that bears are dominating the market, with the price moving at the lower boundary of Bollinger Bands. This indicates a potential **downside bias** in the long term, with the pair potentially declining to ¥140 or lower by the end of the year. Overall, the USD/JPY pair is expected to experience a short-term pause or potential downside move, followed by a long-term decline to ¥140 or lower by the end of 2024. Result: ST=Down LT=Down Analysis Method(2) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the USD/JPY pair's expected price movement in both the short-term and long-term: **Short-term (next few days to a week):** * The pair is currently experiencing selling pressure near the psychological resistance of 150.00, and the prospect of market volatility ahead of the US presidential election is acting as a headwind for the yen carry trade, benefiting the Japanese Yen. * The technical analysis suggests that the pair may test the support level near 150.25, with potential for an upward rebound. * However, the VIX index is above 20, indicating increased volatility, which could lead to a breakout below 148.45, indicating a continuation of the decline. * Given these factors, I expect the price to **go down** in the short-term, potentially testing the support level near 150.25 or even breaking below 148.45. **Long-term (next few weeks to months):** * The fundamental factors suggest that the US Dollar's outlook is firm despite current pressures, with traders pricing out larger-than-usual interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. * The potential for a bullish reclaim of the 151.00-152.00 region could lead to targets of 155.60 and even 160.00 if the US Dollar strengthens across the board. * The Bank of Japan's potential ending of its negative interest rate policy could support the Yen, but this is not expected to have a significant impact in the long-term. * Given these factors, I expect the price to **go up** in the long-term, potentially breaking above 154.45 and reaching targets of 155.60 and 160.00. Please note that these predictions are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new information becomes available. Result: ST=Down LT=Up
Short
by orbborisson
USDJPY_105 2024.11.04 10:19:04 Trading Signal BUYFrankPro Signal for USDJPY_105 Type: Screen Signal: BUY TP: 152.794 SL: 151.858 Entry Price: 151.975 Analysis for USDJPY Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Probably Down LT= Probably Up Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Up LT=Up ST=Down LT=Down ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analysis, here are my expectations for the USD/JPY pair: **Short-term (next few days to a week):** * The pair is expected to test the support level near 150.25 before potentially rebounding and continuing its growth. * A breakout above the resistance area and closing above 154.45 would confirm this growth. * Given the soft nonfarm payrolls report expected, the pair might experience some volatility, but the overall trend suggests a rebound and continuation of growth. **Expected price movement:** Up **Long-term (next few weeks to a month):** * The pair has reclaimed the 151.00-152.00 region, which could act as new support, and could target levels such as 155.60 and even 160.00 in the coming weeks. * The US Dollar Index (DXY) breaking above its 104.50 resistance level could further support the pair's growth. * Political instability in Japan and a strong US economy are expected to continue contributing to the yen's weakness. **Expected price movement:** Up **Note:** The Elliott Wave analysis suggests potential continued growth, but it's essential to consider the broader market context and other technical indicators for a comprehensive view. Overall, both short-term and long-term analyses suggest that the USD/JPY pair is expected to go up, with some potential volatility in the short-term due to the soft nonfarm payrolls report. Result: ST=Up LT=Up Analysis Method(1) **Short-term Analysis (next few days/week):** Based on the technical analysis, the USD/JPY pair is expected to experience a pause in its recent up move due to the overstretched condition of the JPY implied volatility index. The pair is currently under pressure near the psychological resistance of 150.00, and a break below 143.60 intermediate support could trigger renewed weakness. However, a clearance above 149.30 could extend the rebound. Given these conditions, the short-term outlook is **neutral to slightly bearish**, with a potential downside move to 143.60 or lower if the support is broken. **Long-term Analysis (rest of 2024 and beyond):** The long-term forecast suggests that the USD/JPY pair will trade within a range of ¥138 to ¥150 in 2024. Analysts predict a modest strengthening of the US Dollar against the yen until the end of the year, with the pair expected to close at ¥145.555 in December. However, the long-term analysis also suggests that bears are dominating the market, with the price moving at the lower boundary of Bollinger Bands. This indicates a potential **downside bias** in the long term, with the pair potentially declining to ¥140 or lower by the end of the year. Overall, the USD/JPY pair is expected to experience a short-term pause or potential downside move, followed by a long-term decline to ¥140 or lower by the end of 2024. Result: ST=Down LT=Down Analysis Method(2) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the USD/JPY pair's expected price movement in both the short-term and long-term: **Short-term (next few days to a week):** * The pair is currently experiencing selling pressure near the psychological resistance of 150.00, and the prospect of market volatility ahead of the US presidential election is acting as a headwind for the yen carry trade, benefiting the Japanese Yen. * The technical analysis suggests that the pair may test the support level near 150.25, with potential for an upward rebound. * However, the VIX index is above 20, indicating increased volatility, which could lead to a breakout below 148.45, indicating a continuation of the decline. * Given these factors, I expect the price to **go down** in the short-term, potentially testing the support level near 150.25 or even breaking below 148.45. **Long-term (next few weeks to months):** * The fundamental factors suggest that the US Dollar's outlook is firm despite current pressures, with traders pricing out larger-than-usual interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. * The potential for a bullish reclaim of the 151.00-152.00 region could lead to targets of 155.60 and even 160.00 if the US Dollar strengthens across the board. * The Bank of Japan's potential ending of its negative interest rate policy could support the Yen, but this is not expected to have a significant impact in the long-term. * Given these factors, I expect the price to **go up** in the long-term, potentially breaking above 154.45 and reaching targets of 155.60 and 160.00. Please note that these predictions are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new information becomes available. Result: ST=Down LT=Up
Long
by orbborisson
USD/JPY Decreases Slightly: Market Awaits Fed's DecisionHello everyone, Today, the USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing a slight decline, currently around 151,92. This weakening is related to expectations of an interest rate adjustment by the Federal Reserve, along with caution ahead of key economic data and geopolitical conditions. I believe that the exchange rate may continue to fluctuate as new economic information is released and as further indications of upcoming monetary policy become available. Medium-term forecasts suggest that USD/JPY could recover, but this will depend on U.S. economic data and global developments related to the safe-haven demand for the Japanese yen.
by Ademha
USDJPY Analysis: Anticipating a Slight Bearish Bias on November USDJPY Analysis: Anticipating a Slight Bearish Bias on November 4, 2024 Introduction On November 4, 2024, the USDJPY (US Dollar to Japanese Yen) currency pair is showing signs of a potential slight bearish bias. A mix of fundamental factors, including recent economic data from the United States and Japan, is influencing the current outlook for USDJPY. In this article, we’ll analyze the latest drivers and market conditions impacting USDJPY today to help traders make informed decisions. To ensure visibility on TradingView and search engines, we’ve included essential keywords for better SEO optimization. Key Drivers Impacting USDJPY Today 1. US Dollar Weakness Following Economic Data - The US dollar has shown signs of weakening after recent economic reports painted a mixed picture of the US economy. Non-farm payroll data released last week fell short of expectations, suggesting a slowdown in job growth. Additionally, the latest PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data came in weaker than forecasted, hinting at a potential softening in the manufacturing sector. This weaker data weighs on the USD, allowing for a possible downside in USDJPY. 2. Bank of Japan’s Stable Policy and Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained a steady approach to monetary policy, signaling no immediate changes. With inflation remaining below target, the BoJ has resisted pressures to tighten rates aggressively. However, Japan’s economy has recently shown slight signs of improvement, with better-than-expected GDP and consumer spending data. This stability may lend some support to the Japanese yen, creating downward pressure on USDJPY. 3. Interest Rate Expectations - Interest rate differentials remain a significant factor for USDJPY. While the Federal Reserve recently suggested that it will maintain interest rates in the near term, markets are beginning to price in potential rate cuts in 2024 due to softening US economic data. This shift in sentiment could favor the Japanese yen over the US dollar, as investors seek safe-haven assets like the yen amid concerns over slower US growth. 4. Geopolitical Factors and Safe-Haven Demand - Recent geopolitical developments have increased demand for safe-haven assets, with the Japanese yen benefiting as a result. Investors tend to turn to the yen in times of uncertainty, and with global tensions on the rise, the yen may see an uptick in demand. This safe-haven appeal could contribute to a bearish outlook for USDJPY as investors look to reduce exposure to the USD. 5. Technical Analysis and Key Levels - Technically, USDJPY shows signs of potential downside pressure. The currency pair is approaching a support level near 147.50, with resistance around 149.00. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a near-neutral level but is trending downward, signaling possible bearish momentum. Should USDJPY break below the 147.50 support, it could pave the way for further declines. Conclusion Given the above factors, USDJPY is likely to experience a slight bearish bias today. The combination of weaker US economic data, stable policies from the Bank of Japan, changing interest rate expectations, and rising safe-haven demand supports a bearish outlook. As always, it’s essential to keep a close watch on any new economic releases or geopolitical developments that could influence USDJPY in the coming hours. Stay tuned to TradingView for real-time updates and in-depth USDJPY analysis. --- SEO Keywords for USDJPY Article SEO-KEYWORDS: #USDJPYforecast #USDollartoJapaneseYen #USDJPYanalysis #ForextradingUSDJPY #USDJPYbearishtrend #USDJPYtodaysoutlook #BankofJapanpolicyimpact #USDollarweakness #Safehavencurrency
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
USDJPY_105 2024.11.04 07:48:11 Trading Signal BUYFrankPro Signal for USDJPY_105 Type: Screen Signal: BUY TP: 153.131 SL: 152.059 Entry Price: 152.193 Analysis for USDJPY Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Probably Down LT= Probably Up Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Up LT=Up ST=Down LT=Down ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analysis, here are my expectations for the USD/JPY pair: **Short-term (next few days to a week):** * The pair is expected to test the support level near 150.25 before potentially rebounding and continuing its growth. * A breakout above the resistance area and closing above 154.45 would confirm this growth. * Given the soft nonfarm payrolls report expected, the pair might experience some volatility, but the overall trend suggests a rebound and continuation of growth. **Expected price movement:** Up **Long-term (next few weeks to a month):** * The pair has reclaimed the 151.00-152.00 region, which could act as new support, and could target levels such as 155.60 and even 160.00 in the coming weeks. * The US Dollar Index (DXY) breaking above its 104.50 resistance level could further support the pair's growth. * Political instability in Japan and a strong US economy are expected to continue contributing to the yen's weakness. **Expected price movement:** Up **Note:** The Elliott Wave analysis suggests potential continued growth, but it's essential to consider the broader market context and other technical indicators for a comprehensive view. Overall, both short-term and long-term analyses suggest that the USD/JPY pair is expected to go up, with some potential volatility in the short-term due to the soft nonfarm payrolls report. Result: ST=Up LT=Up Analysis Method(1) **Short-term Analysis (next few days/week):** Based on the technical analysis, the USD/JPY pair is expected to experience a pause in its recent up move due to the overstretched condition of the JPY implied volatility index. The pair is currently under pressure near the psychological resistance of 150.00, and a break below 143.60 intermediate support could trigger renewed weakness. However, a clearance above 149.30 could extend the rebound. Given these conditions, the short-term outlook is **neutral to slightly bearish**, with a potential downside move to 143.60 or lower if the support is broken. **Long-term Analysis (rest of 2024 and beyond):** The long-term forecast suggests that the USD/JPY pair will trade within a range of ¥138 to ¥150 in 2024. Analysts predict a modest strengthening of the US Dollar against the yen until the end of the year, with the pair expected to close at ¥145.555 in December. However, the long-term analysis also suggests that bears are dominating the market, with the price moving at the lower boundary of Bollinger Bands. This indicates a potential **downside bias** in the long term, with the pair potentially declining to ¥140 or lower by the end of the year. Overall, the USD/JPY pair is expected to experience a short-term pause or potential downside move, followed by a long-term decline to ¥140 or lower by the end of 2024. Result: ST=Down LT=Down Analysis Method(2) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the USD/JPY pair's expected price movement in both the short-term and long-term: **Short-term (next few days to a week):** * The pair is currently experiencing selling pressure near the psychological resistance of 150.00, and the prospect of market volatility ahead of the US presidential election is acting as a headwind for the yen carry trade, benefiting the Japanese Yen. * The technical analysis suggests that the pair may test the support level near 150.25, with potential for an upward rebound. * However, the VIX index is above 20, indicating increased volatility, which could lead to a breakout below 148.45, indicating a continuation of the decline. * Given these factors, I expect the price to **go down** in the short-term, potentially testing the support level near 150.25 or even breaking below 148.45. **Long-term (next few weeks to months):** * The fundamental factors suggest that the US Dollar's outlook is firm despite current pressures, with traders pricing out larger-than-usual interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. * The potential for a bullish reclaim of the 151.00-152.00 region could lead to targets of 155.60 and even 160.00 if the US Dollar strengthens across the board. * The Bank of Japan's potential ending of its negative interest rate policy could support the Yen, but this is not expected to have a significant impact in the long-term. * Given these factors, I expect the price to **go up** in the long-term, potentially breaking above 154.45 and reaching targets of 155.60 and 160.00. Please note that these predictions are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new information becomes available. Result: ST=Down LT=Up
Long
by frankiepro
USDJPY_108 2024.11.04 07:24:36 Trading Signal SELLFrankPro Signal for USDJPY_108 Type: Screen Signal: SELL TP: 152.095 SL: 152.27 Entry Price: 152.22 Analysis for USDJPY Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Probably Down LT= Probably Up Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Up LT=Up ST=Down LT=Down ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analysis, here are my expectations for the USD/JPY pair: **Short-term (next few days to a week):** * The pair is expected to test the support level near 150.25 before potentially rebounding and continuing its growth. * A breakout above the resistance area and closing above 154.45 would confirm this growth. * Given the soft nonfarm payrolls report expected, the pair might experience some volatility, but the overall trend suggests a rebound and continuation of growth. **Expected price movement:** Up **Long-term (next few weeks to a month):** * The pair has reclaimed the 151.00-152.00 region, which could act as new support, and could target levels such as 155.60 and even 160.00 in the coming weeks. * The US Dollar Index (DXY) breaking above its 104.50 resistance level could further support the pair's growth. * Political instability in Japan and a strong US economy are expected to continue contributing to the yen's weakness. **Expected price movement:** Up **Note:** The Elliott Wave analysis suggests potential continued growth, but it's essential to consider the broader market context and other technical indicators for a comprehensive view. Overall, both short-term and long-term analyses suggest that the USD/JPY pair is expected to go up, with some potential volatility in the short-term due to the soft nonfarm payrolls report. Result: ST=Up LT=Up Analysis Method(1) **Short-term Analysis (next few days/week):** Based on the technical analysis, the USD/JPY pair is expected to experience a pause in its recent up move due to the overstretched condition of the JPY implied volatility index. The pair is currently under pressure near the psychological resistance of 150.00, and a break below 143.60 intermediate support could trigger renewed weakness. However, a clearance above 149.30 could extend the rebound. Given these conditions, the short-term outlook is **neutral to slightly bearish**, with a potential downside move to 143.60 or lower if the support is broken. **Long-term Analysis (rest of 2024 and beyond):** The long-term forecast suggests that the USD/JPY pair will trade within a range of ¥138 to ¥150 in 2024. Analysts predict a modest strengthening of the US Dollar against the yen until the end of the year, with the pair expected to close at ¥145.555 in December. However, the long-term analysis also suggests that bears are dominating the market, with the price moving at the lower boundary of Bollinger Bands. This indicates a potential **downside bias** in the long term, with the pair potentially declining to ¥140 or lower by the end of the year. Overall, the USD/JPY pair is expected to experience a short-term pause or potential downside move, followed by a long-term decline to ¥140 or lower by the end of 2024. Result: ST=Down LT=Down Analysis Method(2) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the USD/JPY pair's expected price movement in both the short-term and long-term: **Short-term (next few days to a week):** * The pair is currently experiencing selling pressure near the psychological resistance of 150.00, and the prospect of market volatility ahead of the US presidential election is acting as a headwind for the yen carry trade, benefiting the Japanese Yen. * The technical analysis suggests that the pair may test the support level near 150.25, with potential for an upward rebound. * However, the VIX index is above 20, indicating increased volatility, which could lead to a breakout below 148.45, indicating a continuation of the decline. * Given these factors, I expect the price to **go down** in the short-term, potentially testing the support level near 150.25 or even breaking below 148.45. **Long-term (next few weeks to months):** * The fundamental factors suggest that the US Dollar's outlook is firm despite current pressures, with traders pricing out larger-than-usual interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. * The potential for a bullish reclaim of the 151.00-152.00 region could lead to targets of 155.60 and even 160.00 if the US Dollar strengthens across the board. * The Bank of Japan's potential ending of its negative interest rate policy could support the Yen, but this is not expected to have a significant impact in the long-term. * Given these factors, I expect the price to **go up** in the long-term, potentially breaking above 154.45 and reaching targets of 155.60 and 160.00. Please note that these predictions are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new information becomes available. Result: ST=Down LT=Up
Short
by frankiepro
Bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance level which acts as an overlap resistance. Pivot: 150.91 1st Support: 149.02 1st Resistance: 152.91 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
Market Analysis 11/1/24Hello everyone, welcome back to our daily market analysis. Today, we examined our fundamental data from yesterday and today. While reviewing, please bear in mind that today marks the commencement of the month. Consequently, we anticipate the emergence of concerning news for several currencies. However, we will primarily focus on the United States Dollar (USD). The USD’s NFP data warrants our attention due to its potential to induce volatility. As traders, it is imperative to consider these factors: the month’s inception and the possibility of a drop in NFP information, which could further amplify volatility. Today’s fundamental data indicates a favorable position for CHF, EUR, and JPY, while AUD, CAD, GBP, NZD, and USD exhibit a weaker trend.
by milesjohnson778