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USD/JPY: Can the 152.89 Support Level Sustain the Recovery?Despite a slight rebound following the BoJ's decision, the Japanese Yen (JPY) still faces multiple challenges. The USD/JPY pair temporarily dipped below 153, but technical indicators suggest that its long-term upward trend remains intact. The combination of the BoJ's loose monetary policy and the possibility that the Fed may soon pause rate hikes continues to support the USD. The technical chart shows strong support at 152.89, acting as a solid anchor to potentially halt further declines in the pair and pave the way for a short-term recovery. However, if resistance at 153.53 is encountered, prices may adjust back to the 153.07 support zone before resuming the upward trend. Traders should keep an eye on these support and resistance levels to identify short-term trading opportunities.
by Alisa_Rokosz
USDJPY_109 2024.10.30 17:50:03 Trading Signal BUYFrankPro Signal for USDJPY_109 Type: Screen Signal: BUY TP: 153.98 SL: 153.112 Entry Price: 153.236 Analysis for USDJPY Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Strong Down LT= Strong Up Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Down LT=Up ST=Down LT=Up ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the USD/JPY pair's expected price movement: **Short-term (next few days):** * The pair is expected to face selling pressure near 150.00, and a break below 150.05 could indicate a continued decline to below 147.25. * The mean reversion rebound may have reached an overstretched condition, suggesting a potential pause in the upside momentum. * The daily RSI has flashed a bearish condition, indicating a potential pause in the upside momentum. * FX option expiries at 151.00, 152.00, and 152.50 could influence price movements around these levels. **Expected short-term price movement:** Down **Long-term (next few weeks/months):** * The technical overview and forecast suggest that the pair is expected to test the support area near 151.65 before potentially rebounding and continuing its growth to the area above 159.05. * The Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the main scenario indicates a potential drop to levels between 138.08 and 131.25 if the price holds below 151.54, but an alternative scenario indicates a potential rise to levels between 153.88 and 156.74. * The moving averages suggest a short-term bullish trend, but a bearish correction is anticipated before further growth. **Expected long-term price movement:** Up, but with a potential bearish correction before further growth. Please note that these assessments are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new data and events emerge. Result: ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(1) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the expected price movement for the USD/JPY pair: **Short-term (next few days):** * The pair is facing selling pressure near the 150.00 level, and technical analysis suggests a potential drop to 138.08-131.25 if the price holds below 151.54. * However, the forecast for October 30, 2024, indicates an attempt to test the support area near 151.65, followed by an upward price rebound. * Given the conflicting signals, I would say that the short-term price movement is uncertain, but slightly leaning towards a **downward** movement, with a potential target of 147.25 if the pair breaks through 150.05. **Long-term (next few weeks/months):** * The US Dollar's outlook remains firm due to expectations of moderate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could support the USD/JPY pair. * Japan's National core CPI acceleration could lead to interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, which could weaken the JPY and support the USD/JPY pair. * Technical analysis suggests a potential rise to 153.88-156.74 if the price breaks above 151.54, and a clearance above 149.30 could extend the mean reversion rebound to 151.95. * Based on these factors, I would say that the long-term price movement is expected to be **upward**, with a potential target of 159.05 or higher. Please note that these assessments are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new information becomes available. Result: ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(2) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the expected price movement for the USD/JPY pair: **Short-term (next few days):** * The pair is expected to test the support area near 151.65, which suggests a potential short-term decline. * However, the forecast also mentions a potential rebound upwards to continue growth above 159.05, indicating a possible short-term bounce. * Overall, the short-term outlook is neutral to slightly bearish, with a possible range-bound movement between 151.65 and 159.05. **Long-term (next few weeks/months):** * The technical analysis suggests that the pair is moving within a bullish channel, indicating a long-term uptrend. * The forecast mentions a potential growth above 159.05, which supports the long-term bullish outlook. * The fundamental factors, such as the potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, also support the long-term strength of the US Dollar. * Overall, the long-term outlook is bullish, with a potential target above 159.05. In summary, the USD/JPY pair is expected to experience a short-term decline or range-bound movement, but the long-term outlook remains bullish, with a potential target above 159.05. Result: ST=Down LT=Up
Long
by orbborisson
3
USDJPY with two probabilities for 10/31/2024This is my idea Nbr 19 after 17 ✅️ USDJPY with a high probability to make the decision for 10/31/2024 ✅️ : 🔸️If the price exceeds the green bar 🟩, with the bar closing in the hour above: there will be a high chance of entering a purchase as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news and the stop loss. 🔸️If the price exceeds the red bar 🟥, with the bar closing in the hour below: there will be a high chance of entering a sale as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news, and the stop loss.
Short
by Abderrahmane_24
USD/JPY eyes Bank of Japan meetingThe Japanese yen continues to have a quiet week. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 153.25, at the time of writing, down 0.07% on the day. The Bank of Japan concludes its two-day meeting on Thursday and is widely expected to maintain policy settings, including its benchmark rate at 0.25%. The shock result from Sunday’s general election, which saw the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lose its majority, will means weeks of political uncertainty. The yen weakened to a three-month low after the election but that won’t be enough to prod the BoJ to raise interest rates on Thursday. The BoJ has said in the past that it would not make any rate moves during times of uncertainty, and between the political crisis in Japan and the tight election campaign in the US, it’s a sure bet that policymakers will wait before adjusting rates. The markets will be keeping a close eye on the BoJ’s quarterly inflation and growth reports, which will be released at the meeting. The BoJ has said that it will hike rates if the economy and prices move in line with these projections, so these projections could provide clues about the BoJ’s future rate path. Governor Ueda holds a press conference after the meeting, and a reference to the falling yen could signal plans for a rate hike or intervention in the currency markets in the near term. In the US, first-estimate GDP in the third quarter rose 2.8% y/y, down from 3.0% in Q2 and below the estimate of 3.0%. This points to a strong economy which has been boosted by robust consumer spending. The Federal Reserve meets on Nov. 7 and the markets have widely priced in a 25-basis point cut. USD/JPY is testing support at 153.33. The next support line is 152.80 153.92 and 154.45 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
USDJPY Long Term Analysis (4H Chart)Technical Analysis Summary USD/USD TREND ANALYSIS We have 2 Upward trends in Green color (Long Term and Short Term) Be careful trends need to be modified when broken to the new peaks(Downtrend) and lows (Uptrend). FUTURE PREDICTIONS We have 1 resistance and 1 support levels that I have mentioned above in the long term. I use thickness as an indicator of strength of levels (ONLY FOR VISUALS). White Levels are stop losses or levels and trends that were respected from the past. Yellow Levels are tighter stop losses and generally will be used after trade is in small profit to start lowering the loss in case trade goes against us. Good luck everyone, stay safe! If you need help ​don't hesitate to send me a message or comment If you find this content beneficial, please don't forget to LIKE and FOLLOW Trading Involves High Risk Not Financial Advice
Long
by husseindergham
2
Can USD/JPY rebound from this key support? the USD/JPY has been consolidating its recent gains in the last couple of days, with price testing the upper band of the 152.85 - 151.95 support area after retreating from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level circa 153.40. This week's mixed US data has taken some shine off the US dollar, but with the election uncertainty hanging over the markets, the dollar is unlikely to sell off significantly until at least the election is out of the way. With that in mind, the USD/JPY could easily rebound from the 152.85 - 151.95 support area and break through the 61.8% Fib resistance. If it gets above it, then the next upside target would be 155.00, a psychologically important level. The line in the sand for me is at 151.45, where the 200-day average and the most recent low come into play. For as long as this area holds, the short-term path of least resistance remains to the upside. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Long
by FOREXcom
USD/JPY Slips as Verbal Intervention Boosts Yen, US Data LoomsThe Japanese Yen (JPY) found some support on Thursday following verbal intervention from officials, which helped reverse part of the previous session’s steep losses against the US Dollar (USD). This recovery dragged the USD/JPY pair down below the 152.00 region during the early European session, after hitting its lowest level since July 31 overnight. However, doubts about the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) ability to raise interest rates further—exacerbated by Japan’s upcoming election-related uncertainties—could limit the Yen’s rebound. Key US Economic Data on the Horizon Traders are now focusing on the upcoming US economic data, which could significantly impact the USD/JPY pair. The release of the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the S&P Global PMI figures is expected to drive market sentiment in the second half of the day. Forecasts suggest that new applications for unemployment benefits could climb towards the 250,000 mark, indicating potential weakness in the US labor market. If confirmed, this data could trigger a bearish reaction in the USD, putting additional pressure on the USD/JPY. Volatility Ahead for USD/JPY With these critical data points set to shape market dynamics, traders should brace for potential volatility in the USD/JPY pair. A higher-than-expected rise in jobless claims could challenge the recent bullish trend of the US Dollar, offering further support to the JPY. Technical Outlook From a technical perspective, the price has shown some reaction to the overhead supply zone. However, traders will likely wait for the outcome of the US economic releases before committing to a bearish setup. If the data comes in softer than expected, it could trigger a stronger JPY rebound, potentially setting up for a bearish move in USD/JPY. Conversely, if the data surprises to the upside, the pair might regain some bullish momentum. Patience is key as traders await clearer signals post-data release to determine the next directional move for USD/JPY. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
12
USDJPY Will Fall! Short! Please, check our technical outlook for USDJPY. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 153.142. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 147.275 level soon. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
USDJPY Analysis: Potential Bearish Bias for October 30, 2024Find out what’s driving a potential bearish trend for USDJPY today. Explore the latest analysis of USDJPY with insights on central bank policies, risk sentiment, and technical trends that could impact this popular currency pair. --- Introduction Today, October 30, 2024, USDJPY may lean slightly bearish as a confluence of economic and fundamental factors unfolds in favor of the Japanese yen (JPY) over the U.S. dollar (USD). This article analyzes the forces potentially influencing a decline in USDJPY, including central bank actions, the latest market sentiment, and key technical indicators. This analysis is essential for traders seeking insights into the short-term trajectory of USDJPY. Current Market Sentiment and Risk Aversion USDJPY typically reflects shifts in global risk sentiment, with the Japanese yen often viewed as a safe-haven currency. Recent signs of global economic caution have led to a “risk-off” sentiment, benefiting the JPY as investors look to reduce exposure to riskier assets. Additionally, concerns over U.S. economic stability have cast a shadow over the dollar, potentially encouraging a mild bearish tilt in USDJPY. Key Drivers Influencing USDJPY 1. Bank of Japan’s Policy and Yield Curve Control The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has remained consistent with its ultra-loose monetary policy, particularly its yield curve control (YCC) measures. However, with recent statements indicating potential tweaks to long-term interest rates, there is speculation that the BoJ may be open to slight policy adjustments to control inflation. A BoJ with even minor adjustments on the table could create downward pressure on USDJPY as expectations build for a stronger yen. 2. U.S. Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Outlook The U.S. Federal Reserve’s approach remains a major influence on USDJPY. As markets anticipate that the Fed might pause or slow down its rate hike trajectory due to signs of slowing growth, this uncertainty around rate increases could dampen USD demand, thereby adding to USDJPY’s potential bearish bias. Any U.S. economic data releases today, such as inflation or consumer confidence indicators, could further impact USDJPY if they reflect economic cooling. 3. Risk Aversion and Safe-Haven Flows Growing risk aversion in the global markets favors the Japanese yen, as it traditionally acts as a safe-haven currency during uncertain times. With geopolitical tensions and financial market uncertainty persisting, demand for the yen could increase, putting downward pressure on USDJPY. Investors often turn to the yen in times of volatility, and today’s market conditions support that trend. 4. Economic Data from Japan and U.S. Economic data out of Japan has shown moderate improvement, suggesting the potential for a slightly stronger yen. Japan’s latest industrial output and consumer spending figures indicate resilience, adding support to the yen. Conversely, any soft U.S. economic data today could reduce USD appeal, enhancing a bearish bias for USDJPY. Technical Overview On the technical side, USDJPY is trading near key resistance levels, and a downward break could signal further declines. With momentum indicators such as the RSI showing overbought conditions, traders might see bearish opportunities if USDJPY breaks below the 20-day moving average. A drop below key support levels could further confirm a short-term bearish outlook for the pair. Conclusion The USDJPY outlook for today points to a slight bearish bias, fueled by risk aversion, potential policy tweaks from the BoJ, and moderate U.S. dollar weakness in the face of Fed uncertainty. While there are several factors at play, traders should monitor any significant data releases that could shift sentiment and impact the USDJPY trend. This analysis is essential for traders focused on USDJPY’s short-term fluctuations amid shifting economic indicators and market sentiment. --- SEO Keywords: USDJPY analysis, USDJPY today, Japanese yen forecast, USDJPY bearish bias, Bank of Japan policy, Federal Reserve outlook, USDJPY risk sentiment, forex trading USDJPY, USDJPY technical analysis, USDJPY trend.
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
USDJPY Buy Summary USD/JPY chart appears to show a channel pattern with both upper and lower trend lines, suggesting the pair is trading within a defined range. The price currently sits near the midline of this channel, indicating a potential opportunity for continuation or reversal. The channel’s upper and lower trend lines provide key resistance and support levels. The price action within this range indicates that traders might expect it to stay within these boundaries unless there’s a significant breakout. There’s a clear resistance level around 153.912, with support at 152.405 and 151.492. These levels might act as decision points, where price could either continue or reverse its direction. Overall, if the price respects the channel’s lower trend line, a bullish entry aiming for the upper trend line could be reasonable. However, keep an eye on the key support and resistance levels, as well as any external events, as they may influence the price movement significantly.
Long
by Botla