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USDJPY Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow !In this video I will be sharing my USDJPY analysis today, by providing my complete technical and order flow analysis, so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The video is structured in 3 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the COT data analysis, so how the big payers in market are moving their orders, and to do this I will be using my customized proprietary software and then I will be putting together these two different types of analysis.
by Transparent_Fx_Analysis
YEN/USD short, USD long and making milkshake.Japan is stuck in a debt trap. Shorting the YEN/USD: Milkshake and Carry Trade going hyperpolic The Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced the end of its interest rate hiking cycle on September 20, 2024. This decision was made to stabilize the economy and prevent further market disruptions. The BOJ had to stop increasing rates at 25 basis points, or 0.25%. They can’t go higher to "normalize" their interest rates. Japan is stuck as a carry trade slave. Foreign investors borrow in Yen at low rates, convert the money into USD, and buy US Treasuries or other riskier assets with higher returns. A weakening Yen increases the weight of their foreign debt. Japan has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio at 261%, higher even than Venezuela which is at 240%. This is why the BOJ was trying to "normalize" its central bank interest rate, increasing it from the decimal 0.05% level. However, the BOJ announced on September 20, 2024, that they can’t go higher than 0.25% as this is bringing in too much inflation. So, in a nutshell, the BOJ can’t use its central bank rate to control inflation. Japan is stuck in a major debt crisis, and by trying to increase its interest rate for the first time in 17 years, it has exposed its central weakness. This is why foreign predatory investors and traders are going to exploit it at hyperbolic levels. The Dollar Milkshake Theory is in full effect here. It is no longer a "theory. The Yen Carry Trade hyperbolic mode has started. The US Dollar Milkshake on behalf of the Yen is ramping up fast. Operation Milkshake is a go! 😂 The Japanese are stuck in a deadly debt cycle. The situation is dire! OMS P.S. On SOFR, its spread over the Funds Rate is spiking and the highest outliers of the SOFR average rate are suggesting increasing counterparty risk on top of the elevated overall risk. Watching this like a hawk.
Short
by Operation_Morning_Star
THREE AREAS TO POTENTIALLY BUY FROMUSD/JPY 4H - As you can see price has left without us, failing to trade down and into the two zones I had marked out below, instead price swept just above before taking its next hike. I dont want to miss the next bull-run and I believe price will have to come down and into the last sell to buy region we have here on the 4H timeframe, all I have done is gone ahead and refined the area slightly for us. I have marked out the hidden order block that lays in the same area as the last sell to buy region. I would like for price to clear this inefficient structure, pick up more demand and take off to the upside. We could look to short this market before we go long, but with it being a prevailing bullish trend as we know that is going to be somewhat risky, so its important that if we do go short we wait for confirmation first.
Long
by Lukegforex
USDJPY BUY | Idea Trading AnalysisUSDJPY is falling towards a support level which is a pullback support and could bounce from this level to our take profit. We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level which suggests that the price will continue to rise Hello Traders, here is the full analysis. I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity USDJPY I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. ------------------- Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝
Long
by TheGrove
7
USD/JPY : First Long, Then SHORT ! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the USD/JPY chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that after a sharp decline, the price created a large liquidity gap, which has just been filled at the moment. Currently, the price is trading around the 145.660 level, and after an initial bullish move, I’m expecting a further correction. So, first a LONG position, then a SHORT! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Short
by ArmanShabanTrading
10
Taking a look at Fibonacci in Technical AnalysisIn the world of technical analysis, traders are always searching for tools that provide an edge in the markets. One such tool, which has stood the test of time, is Fibonacci retracement. Derived from a series of numbers discovered by the Italian mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci in the 13th century, the Fibonacci sequence has been applied to various fields, from nature to finance, and plays a significant role in predicting market movements. This blog will explore how Fibonacci retracement works, why it’s relevant for traders, and how you can incorporate it into your trading strategy for better results. ________________________________________ What is Fibonacci? The Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones, starting with 0 and 1. So, the sequence looks like this: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, and so on. The magic of Fibonacci for traders lies in the ratios derived from this sequence, which are commonly referred to as the "Golden Ratios." The most important Fibonacci ratios used in technical analysis are: • 61.8% (also known as the Golden Ratio) • 38.2% • 23.6% These ratios are used to identify potential levels of support and resistance in the price of a financial asset. Fibonacci Retracement in Trading Fibonacci retracement is a popular technical analysis tool used to find potential levels where price pullbacks or reversals might occur. The idea is simple: when a market moves sharply in one direction, it’s likely to retrace part of that move before continuing in the same direction. Key Levels in Fibonacci Retracement: • 61.8%: Often regarded as the "golden retracement level," this ratio is believed to be the strongest predictor of price reversal points. • 50%: Although not an official Fibonacci ratio, traders frequently use this level to gauge whether the trend will resume or reverse. • 38.2% and 23.6%: These levels represent smaller pullbacks and often signal short-term corrections. By plotting these levels on a price chart, traders can get a better sense of where the price might pause, reverse, or find support/resistance. How to Use Fibonacci Retracement in Your Trading Strategy Let’s break down how Fibonacci retracement works in practice. Step 1: Identifying a Trend The first step in using Fibonacci retracement is identifying a strong upward or downward trend. This could be a swing high to swing low (in an uptrend) or a swing low to swing high (in a downtrend). The trend is essential because Fibonacci retracement levels are applied to find where pullbacks might occur during this trend. Step 2: Plotting Fibonacci Levels Once you’ve identified the trend, plot the Fibonacci retracement levels using the highest and lowest points of the move. Most charting platforms, have built-in Fibonacci tools to help with this. For example, in an uptrend, select the lowest point (swing low) and drag the tool to the highest point (swing high). The software will automatically calculate and plot the key Fibonacci levels: 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 100%. Step 3: Analysing the Price Action Now that the Fibonacci levels are in place, watch how the price interacts with these levels. If the price retraces to 38.2% or 61.8%, it might find support and continue moving in the direction of the trend. Traders often look for other confirmation signals (such as candlestick patterns, volume spikes, or moving averages) at these levels before making a trade. Using Fibonacci in Conjunction with Other Indicators While Fibonacci retracement is a powerful tool on its own, its effectiveness increases when combined with other technical analysis tools. Here are some common pairings: • Moving Averages: A bounce off a Fibonacci level that coincides with a key moving average (like the 50-day or 200-day MA) is often seen as a strong buy or sell signal. • Trendlines: If a Fibonacci retracement level aligns with a major trendline, this increases the likelihood of the level acting as strong support or resistance. • Candlestick Patterns: Reversal patterns like Doji, Hammer, or Engulfing candles at a Fibonacci retracement level can provide additional confirmation for your trade setup. • RSI/Other Oscillators: Overbought or oversold conditions shown by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around a Fibonacci level can signal potential price reversals. On the USD/JPY weekly chart we have an engulfing pattern and a diverging RSI at the 61.8% which adds weight to the idea that the market was likely to hold in this vicinity and recover. Conclusion: Fibonacci as a Core Tool in Your Trading Arsenal Fibonacci retracement is a versatile and widely trusted tool that can help traders identify potential price reversal levels. By understanding how to apply Fibonacci ratios and combining them with other technical indicators, you can improve your chances of success in the markets. Remember, no tool is perfect, and using Fibonacci retracement effectively requires practice and confirmation. Incorporate it into a broader trading strategy, and you’ll be able to make more informed and profitable trading decisions. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Education
by The_STA
USDJPY / UNDER BULLISH PRESSUE / 4HUSDJPY / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS after breakout from a channel, leading to a price increase of 1.82%. The breakout signals potential for further upward movement. The price is expected to retest a Fair Value Gap (FVG), which is a technical term in trading that represents an area on the chart where price moved quickly, leaving little to no volume. The specified FVG zone is between 145.303 and 144.367. A retest of this area could indicate the market finding support here. If the price remains above this FVG area and stabilizes, there is an expectation of further increases, potentially reaching the supply zone between 147.602 and 149.360. This suggests that the supply zone is where there could be selling pressure. A break above the supply zone would indicate even more upside potential for prices. On the downside, if the price closes a 4-hour candle below the FVG area, the expectation is for prices to decline. This could lead the price to a demand zone between 142.672 and 141.736, suggesting buying interest might come in at this level. Supply Zone : 147.602 and 149.360. Demand Zone : 142.672 and 141.736. FVG : 145.303 and 144.367.
Long
by ArinaKarayi
USDJPY Analysis for 03/10/2024: Anticipating a Slightly Bullish.As of October 3, 2024, the USDJPY currency pair is exhibiting signs of a slightly bullish bias. Several fundamental factors and market conditions are aligning to support this outlook. Traders focusing on USDJPY today should be aware of key drivers influencing this potential movement. Key Drivers for USDJPY Bullish Bias 1. US Dollar Strength - The U.S. dollar is maintaining its strength amid ongoing Federal Reserve hawkishness. Recent speeches from Fed officials have reinforced the possibility of additional interest rate hikes, which supports the USD. Higher U.S. interest rates typically attract foreign investment, leading to increased demand for the dollar. - Today, expectations of economic resilience in the U.S. are high, with upcoming non-farm payrolls and inflation data later in the week likely to cement this bullish outlook. 2. Divergence in Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve’s stance is increasingly at odds with the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which remains committed to ultra-loose monetary policies. The BoJ continues to support its yield curve control program, making the yen less attractive for investors. As the U.S. tightens, the BoJ’s dovish position could lead to further depreciation of the yen, supporting a bullish USDJPY trend. - Today’s market sentiment reflects this divergence, as traders expect the BoJ to stay accommodative while the U.S. dollar benefits from higher yields. 3. Treasury Yields on the Rise - U.S. Treasury yields, especially the 10-year note, have been climbing. Higher yields are a crucial indicator of rising demand for the dollar. As bond yields rise, so does the attractiveness of U.S. assets, drawing capital away from yen-denominated assets. - With Treasury yields set to increase, USDJPY is likely to follow a bullish trajectory today, as investors seek better returns from U.S. bonds. 4. Risk-On Sentiment - Today’s global risk sentiment is relatively optimistic, which traditionally favors higher-yielding currencies like the USD over the safe-haven yen. Equity markets have seen gains, and positive sentiment around U.S. economic data could continue to support risk-on trades, driving USDJPY higher. Technical Factors Supporting Bullish Bias - Support and Resistance Levels: Currently, USDJPY is trading near key support levels around 149.00. A successful hold above this zone could encourage a bullish push towards the 150.00 psychological level. Breaking through this level could lead to further upward momentum, strengthening the pair's bullish bias. - Moving Averages: On the daily chart, USDJPY remains above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a well-established uptrend. Conclusion: USDJPY Slightly Bullish Bias for 03/10/2024 In conclusion, the USDJPY pair is expected to maintain a slightly bullish bias today, supported by strong U.S. dollar fundamentals, central bank divergence, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and favorable market sentiment. Traders should watch for key levels of resistance and monitor U.S. data releases later this week, which could provide additional bullish momentum for the pair. This analysis reflects the latest fundamental factors and market conditions for USDJPY on October 3, 2024, offering insights for traders seeking to capitalize on today's potential bullish movement. Keywords for SEO: USDJPY analysis, USDJPY forecast, USDJPY trading, USDJPY bullish bias, U.S. dollar strength, Bank of Japan monetary policy, Federal Reserve interest rates, U.S. Treasury yields, Forex market analysis, USDJPY 03/10/2024, TradingView analysis.
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
USD/JPY Recovers from Below 140.00 Area During BoJThe USD/JPY pair has staged an impressive recovery, pushing toward the 143.00 level in the European morning session, following an initial dip below 140.00. This move comes in response to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy stance, as widely expected. Governor Kazuo Ueda's press conference reiterated the central bank's cautious approach toward tightening monetary conditions, which triggered a temporary pullback in the currency pair. From a technical standpoint, this recovery aligns with our prior analysis that pointed to a potential reversal within a demand zone near the 140.00 level. This area has acted as a key support, fueling buying momentum and setting the stage for a continuation of the long position. The price action suggests that buyers are still keen to capitalize on dips in the pair, particularly as USD strength remains broadly supported by the Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook. Further supporting the bullish outlook is the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which shows that retail traders remain bearish on the USD/JPY pair. Typically, a contrarian view of retail positioning can indicate further upside potential, as institutional investors tend to take the opposite side of the trade. With retail sentiment still leaning toward the short side, it opens the door for continued upward movement in the pair, especially if market sentiment shifts further in favor of the U.S. dollar. As we look ahead, the USD/JPY appears poised to target higher levels, with 143.00 acting as an immediate resistance. Should the bullish momentum persist, traders may set their sights on a potential breakout, paving the way for a sustained move higher. All eyes will remain on global central banks and key economic data releases in the coming weeks, as these will likely play a crucial role in shaping the next leg of the USD/JPY’s trajectory. Previous Analysis ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
3