USD/JPY Trade Breakdown | Price Action + SMA StrategyUSD/JPY Trade Breakdown | Price Action + SMA Strategy
In this video, I break down my latest USD/JPY trade setup using clean price action combined with key moving average levels. You'll see how I used market structure, momentum shifts, and simple confirmations to identify a high-probability entry.
✅ Timeframe:
✅ Strategy: Trend-following with 20/200 SMA + price action
✅ Direction:
✅ Entry, Stop Loss, and Take Profit levels included
✅ Ideal for scalpers and intraday traders
If you found value in this breakdown, don’t forget to leave a comment or follow for more trade insights. Stay sharp and patient in the markets!
USDJPY_LMAX trade ideas
USDJPY Potential Pennant Triple ThreatFirst,
In the Higher Timeframes (4Hr - Weekly), we can see that USDJPY is traveling down a Descending Channel since Jan 10th. Price tried pushing higher in March but ultimately fell back within the Channel beginning of this month (April) resulting only in a False Breakout but also creating a Fair Value Gap from 148.698 - 147.429.
Now down on the Lower Timeframes (15min - 1Hr) we can see that Price has created a Fair Value Gap from 146.546 - 146.226 with current Price Action forming a Pennant Pattern just above this FVG which lines up with Previous Highs (Past Resistance Level) and with Volume Decreasing, suggests we could see a Breakout soon! Now Based on the Pennant Pattern being Neutral meaning can break either way, creates the first 2 Bullish Scenarios being either a Breakout and Retest of the Pennant pattern going Bullish OR Bearish.
*Breakout will be Validated if followed by an Increase in Volume!
Scenario 1 -If BULLISH BREAKOUT - The Retest will come at the Falling Resistance of the Pattern.
Scenario 2 -If BEARISH BREAKOUT - This could suggest Price is looking to "Fill The Gap" being the FVG
** If Scenario 2 happens, this Price Movement could be looking to fulfill a Fibonacci Retracement of the Swing Low @ 145.041 to the Swing High @ 146.904, where the 38.2% Level lays at the Upper Limit of the FVG and the 50% Level lays at the Lower Limit of the FVG with the Consequent Encroachment right in the middle @ 146.385.
—Both of this ideas suggest USD will need to gain strength which could mean fundamentally:
FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday, April 9th & CPI (Consumer Price Index), the instrument used to measure Inflation, on Thursday, April 10th released results will be heavily relied on to see if there's anymore input on potential effects of Tariffs.
Scenario 3 - Fair Value Gap Inversion could suggest bad news fundamentally is released for USD and gives JPY Bears (Sellers) the ability to pull price down, keeping Price Consolidated further within the HTF Descending Channel.
USD/JPY 4H Chart Analysis:Trend Break & Support-Based Long Setup1. Previous Uptrend Channel
📈
Price moved in a rising channel
Lower trendline acted as support ✅
Then came the trend line break ⚠️ — signal of trend reversal
2. Major Drop
🔻💥
After breaking support, the price fell sharply
Strong bearish momentum took over
Sellers dominated the market
3. Support Zone Identified
🟦 Support Box (146.110 - 145.156)
Buyers stepped in at this level
Possible bounce or consolidation
Price currently at 147.014 — just above support
4. Trade Setup Idea
🛒 Buy Opportunity (if price holds support)
📌 Entry Zone: Around 146.110
🎯 Target: 150.260
🛑 Stop Loss: 145.156
📊 Risk:Reward = ~1:2 — solid R:R setup!
5. Indicators & Confirmations
🟠 DEMA (9): Sitting at 146.110 — aligns with support!
✅ Extra confluence for the bounce!
Summary
If price holds above support:
Buyers might push toward 150.260
If it breaks below 145.156:
Sellers may regain control
USDJPY: Bullish Continuation & Long Trade
USDJPY
- Classic bullish formation
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long USDJPY
Entry - 146.99
Sl - 146.07
Tp - 149.09
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
USDJPY - 4H more fall expectedFX:USDJPY - 4H Update 🔻
If you've traded USDJPY in recent years, you're no stranger to the significance of the 150.00 zone. This level has historically acted as a critical resistance and psychological barrier.
Now, the pair is trading below this key level and has also broken the ascending channel support on the daily timeframe, signaling that bulls are likely out of the game. The recent drop to 147.00 and bounce toward 151.00 could be setting up the next short opportunity.
📌 What to watch for:
A liquidity grab above the 151.50–152.00 zone could occur before the next fall.
This aligns with institutional behavior, hunting stops before continuing the trend.
We're now in a sell-the-rally phase, watching for confirmations around the red zone.
Remember, I previously signaled a short from the 157 zone, which played out beautifully. We’re now gearing up for the next big short, and this setup might just be it.
📉 Stay cautious, wait for price action signals, and trust the structure.
💸 If you’ve missed previous entries, don’t miss what’s coming next!
🔔 Follow for real-time updates and live trade ideas!
USD/JPY Bullish Reversal Setup with 2.30% Upside PotentialThis is a USD/JPY 1-hour chart analysis, and it looks like a bullish setup is being anticipated. Here's a breakdown:
Key Observations:
1. Support Zone (Purple Box - Around 146.411 - 146.429):
Multiple bullish rejections (green arrows) indicate a strong support level.
Price bounced off this support recently, forming a potential double bottom.
2. EMA Levels:
50 EMA (Red Line) is currently at 146.411.
200 EMA (Blue Line) is at 148.499, acting as dynamic resistance.
Price has crossed above the 50 EMA, a bullish sign, and might aim for the 200 EMA next.
3. Projected Bullish Path:
The path drawn suggests a pullback to the support zone around 146.429, followed by a bullish continuation.
Target zone is marked around 150.032, showing a projected gain of 2.30% (337.2 pips).
4. Resistance Levels:
Minor resistance at the 200 EMA (~148.5).
JPY/USD Daily Chart – Falling Wedge Breakout & Bullish Target🔍 Full Technical Analysis of JPY/USD (Daily Timeframe)
🧭 Overview
The chart shows a sophisticated price structure unfolding over several months. A falling wedge reversal pattern formed during a sustained downtrend, which later transitioned into a bullish breakout and continuation. This analysis provides insights into market behavior, price psychology, and a high-probability trading opportunity supported by classical technical analysis principles.
🔶 1. Market Context & Structure
Before diving into the pattern, it’s essential to understand the macro structure of the chart:
The pair experienced a strong bearish move from around August to December 2024, marked by lower highs and lower lows.
During this decline, volatility gradually decreased, which often indicates seller exhaustion.
A reversal zone emerged near a major support region — historically significant and previously tested.
🔷 2. The Falling Wedge Pattern (Reversal Signal)
A falling wedge is a bullish reversal pattern that forms when price is in a downtrend but begins to consolidate within converging trendlines. This pattern typically signals that the downtrend is losing momentum and a breakout to the upside is imminent.
📌 Characteristics of This Wedge:
Downward Convergence: The highs and lows begin to narrow over time, indicating reduced selling pressure.
Volume Decline (Implied): Though not displayed, falling wedges usually see volume dry up before breakout.
Duration: This wedge developed over several months (October 2024 – January 2025), lending strength to the pattern.
False Break Attempts: Several lower spikes failed to break the support, showing buying interest building.
✅ Bullish Breakout:
The breakout occurred decisively in late January 2025, with a large bullish candlestick closing above the upper wedge boundary — a confirmed breakout.
Post-breakout, the price rallied strongly, indicating that buyers were firmly in control.
🔷 3. Support & Resistance Zones
🔽 Support Zone (Demand Area):
Range: 0.006300 – 0.006400
Historical pivot zone where price previously reversed, now serving as a demand base.
The lower wick rejections near this zone reinforce it as a high liquidity zone for buyers.
🔼 Resistance Zone (Supply Area):
Range: 0.006850 – 0.006950
This area capped price during several prior rally attempts, making it a key breakout point.
Once price broke above this zone, it became a support flip zone, indicating trend reversal confirmation.
🎯 Target Level:
Marked at 0.007126, derived from a measured move:
Measure the height of the wedge at its widest point.
Project this vertically from the breakout level.
This target aligns with psychological round numbers and prior resistance, adding confluence.
🔶 4. Post-Breakout Price Action: Bullish Retest
A breakout is only the first part of a trade; the retest phase confirms the move and offers an optimal entry.
🔁 Retest Details:
After reaching the resistance zone, price pulled back, testing both:
The broken wedge trendline (now acting as dynamic support).
The horizontal structure support zone near 0.006650–0.006700.
A bullish engulfing candle or similar reversal pattern formed at this level — a classic retest entry.
📌 Trendline Respect:
A rising dotted trendline was drawn from the breakout low through higher lows.
This line acted as price memory and was respected multiple times, reinforcing the uptrend.
🔷 5. Trade Setup Breakdown
This is a swing trade setup based on pattern breakout, structural confluence, and trend continuation. Here's how it’s structured:
Component Details
Pattern Falling Wedge (Reversal)
Trade Bias Long (Buy)
Entry Price ~0.006700
Stop Loss 0.006614 (below trendline)
Target Price 0.007126 (measured wedge move)
R/R Ratio Approx. 3:1
Timeframe Daily (Medium-term swing)
🧠 6. Market Psychology & Behavior
Understanding the sentiment behind the candles is critical:
❗ Before the Breakout:
Sellers dominated but with weakening momentum.
Each push down was met with buying strength, seen in long wicks and smaller-bodied candles.
✅ At the Breakout:
Buyers overwhelmed sellers, often with a volume spike and wide-bodied green candle.
This is usually driven by institutional positioning and stop-loss triggering from short-sellers.
🔁 During the Retest:
Some retail traders exited prematurely, fearing a fakeout.
Smart money used the dip to accumulate positions, confirmed by the bounce from trendline.
🔼 Continuation Rally:
Strong continuation candle signals momentum traders entering.
Break above resistance signals a shift in sentiment and structure.
🛠️ 7. Strategy Notes & Professional Tips
📌 Risk Management:
Never risk more than 1–2% of capital.
Use dynamic trailing stop if price breaks above target zone.
📌 Trade Confirmation Ideas:
Look for volume spikes on breakout candles.
Use RSI or MACD divergence to confirm reversal (optional).
Look for candlestick patterns (engulfing, pin bar) on retests.
📌 Exit Plan:
Partial exit at key resistance.
Full exit at projected target or if price forms reversal signs (e.g., doji at resistance).
✅ Final Summary
This JPY/USD chart demonstrates an exemplary price action-based trading setup rooted in:
A well-formed falling wedge (bullish reversal).
Clean breakout + retest + continuation structure.
Multiple confluence factors: trendline, horizontal S/R, pattern projection.
Professional-grade risk/reward profile with a logical entry, stop, and target.
This kind of setup is highly favored among swing traders, price action purists, and institutional-level strategists due to its clarity and predictability.
USD/JPY "The Ninja" Forex Bank Heist Plan (Swing/Scalping Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the USD/JPY "The Ninja" Forex Bank. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. It's Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout then make your move - Bullish profits await!"
however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average 151.500 (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level.
📌I strongly advise you to set an "alert (Alarm)" on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs.
Stop Loss 🛑:
Thief SL placed at the nearest / swing low level Using the 5H timeframe (149.500) Day / swing trade basis.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
🏴☠️Target 🎯: 155.000 (or) Escape Before the Target
🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
💵💰USD/JPY "The Ninja" Forex Bank Heist Plan (Swing/Scalping Trade) is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors.
📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Quantitative Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Future trend targets.... go ahead to check 👉👉👉🔗
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱👤🤗🤩
USDJPY Approaches Triangle Apex – Bounce from 145.250 SupportUSDJPY has bounced off the 145.250 support zone, respecting the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle on the H4 timeframe. Price is now pushing upward, potentially aiming for the upper boundary near 148.500.
📌 Technical Outlook:
Structure: Triangle formation
Support tested: 145.250 – clean bounce observed
Bias: Bullish within the triangle toward resistance at 148.500
📍 Trade Idea:
Long Entry: 145.90–146.10
Stop Loss: Below 145.00 (under support + triangle base)
Take Profit: 148.50
Risk/Reward: ~1:2.5
⚠️ Wait for confirmation such as a bullish engulfing candle, breakout retest, or further oscillator confirmation before entry.
#USDJPY #forextrading #priceaction #trianglepattern #forexsetup #H4chart #forexideas #technicalanalysis #swingtrading #rsi #cci #jpy #yen #forexsignals #supportresistance
Tariffs, Stagflation, and Yen Strength Set the Stage for a CleanAlright degenerates, here’s your clean macro breakdown.
Pair with strongest directional bias right now: USD/JPY
Bias: SHORT USD/JPY (Bearish USD / Bullish JPY)
WHY? Because the U.S. just tripped over its own tariffs and dragged the dollar with it.
1. U.S. melting down:
• Trump went full trade-war goblin: 10% base tariffs on everything, up to 100% on certain countries.
• Fed now cornered — inflation UP, growth DOWN = stagflation vibes.
• Powell already out here looking like he wants to cut rates yesterday.
• S&P nuked -4.9%, $2.5 trillion gone in a day. This is not a drill.
2. Japan not looking great, but better than the U.S.:
• BOJ possibly delaying hikes, but inflation’s been above 2% for 3 years.
• Tokyo CPI still hot.
• Plus: classic safe-haven flow kicking in thanks to all the macro chaos.
• Yen doing what yen does—acting like gold in a suit.
3. Geopolitical backdrop:
• EU & Japan both throwing shade at U.S. tariffs.
• Retaliation incoming? Risk-off vibes continue.
• Markets shifting to JPY like it’s 2020 all over again.
4. Central Bank energy:
• Fed: Shaky, reactive, duck-and-cover mode.
• BOJ: Holding back, but not out. Inflation gives them ammo.
⸻
TL;DR:
• USD is getting wrecked by its own government.
• JPY benefiting from safe-haven flows + stable inflation.
• Every major factor (macro, policy, geopolitics, sentiment) leans one way.
• USD/JPY short looks clean AF from a fundamental standpoint.
Not financial advice. I don’t care what you do. Just don’t long this trash.
Now go slap some fibs and RSI on this thing and pretend you knew it all along.
USD/JPY "The Ninja" Forex Bank Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the USD/JPY "The Ninja" Forex Bank. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bullish loot at any price - the heist is on!
however I advise to Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level. I Highly recommended you to put alert in your chart.
Stop Loss 🛑:
Thief SL placed at the recent / nearest low level Using the 1H timeframe (148.250) swing trade basis.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
🏴☠️Target 🎯: 152.300 (or) Escape Before the Target
🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
USD/JPY "The Ninja" Forex Bank Heist Plan (Day Trade) is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors.
📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental analysis, Macro Economics, COT Report, Quantitative Analysis, Intermarket Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Positioning and future trend...
Before start the heist plan read it.👉👉👉
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱👤🤗🤩
daily reject daily, sweep + breakerwe framed our bias from the monthly timeframe on the daily timeframe the daily rejects the daily bb and we have a sweep and a break of the market structure on the 4hr timeframe, hence on the 1hr we have our entry on the breaker close to the nearest liquidity.
overall trend is bullish.
USDJPY - LongThe tariffs (if they are maintained) are going to destroy Japans economy, which is heavily reliant on car exports to the US. As their trade balance goes red, and their domestic economy goes into recession, the yen will crater as the underlying debt crisis percolating in the background exasperates the issue.
ONENTRY
USD/JPY ONENTRY '1TWO 1 Strategy'
Timeframe: 30 Minutes
Key Session: Asian Market Hours (00:00 - 05:30 +2GMT)
Strategy Rules
1. Identify the Asian Range
Mark the high and low of USD/JPY between 00:00 - 05:30 ( +2GMT )
Only trade if the range is >25pips (avoids noise).
2. Wait for Breakout + Pullback
Breakout: Price must close outside the range (candle body, not wick).
Pullback: Enter on a 50% retracement of the Asian range.
Longs: Breakout above range → buy at 50% pullback.
Shorts: Breakout below range → sell at 50% pullback.
3. Trade Execution
Entry: 50% retracement level of the Asian range.
Stop Loss:
Longs: Below the range low (for breakouts above).
Shorts: Above the range high (for breakouts below).
Take Profit : 1:1 Risk-Reward (RR).
USD/JPY Ready for Liftoff? Catch This Potential Rebound! Hi traders! , Analyzing USD/JPY on the 1H timeframe, spotting a potential long entry:
🔹 Entry: 145.44
🔹 TP: 146.78
🔹 SL: 144.115
USD/JPY has formed a consolidation zone after a sharp downtrend, indicating a potential bullish reversal. If buyers step in, we could see a move towards 146.78. RSI is recovering from oversold levels, supporting the upside scenario.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice. Every trader makes their own decision.
USDJPY MONTHLY IS TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS Price once more fall into the weak trendline formed by a struggling bullish move that started since 2022. We may likely see a possible break below the trendline which may insight a possible sell opportunity . We also see a Head and shoulder like pattern. A break below the Trendline will further confirm the head & shoulder reversal pattern formation.