USDJPY_LMAX trade ideas
USD/JPY – 4H Chart Analysis🟦 USD/JPY – 4H Chart Analysis (April 21, 2025)
📊 Technical Analysis
Current Price: ~140.72
Structure: Descending channel
Pattern: Bullish flag within a broader downtrend
Key Zones:
Support Zone: 139.70 – 140.00 (blue zone)
Demand Zone: 137.10 – 137.55 (strong support below)
Resistance Levels:
145.17 (intermediate resistance)
147.43 – 147.47 (major supply)
149.70 – 150.00 (psychological + previous swing high)
Setup:
Price is at the lower boundary of the descending channel, testing support.
Reversal zone aligns with a previous demand area + lower trendline support.
If bulls defend this zone, price may:
Rebound toward 145.17
Break short-term trendline resistance
Extend toward 147.43
Invalidation:
A clean break below 139.70 could send price toward 137.10
Risk-to-Reward: Favorable for long trades from current level with stops below the blue zone and TP near 147.4–150
🌐 Fundamental Outlook
🔸 USD Side (Bearish to Neutral):
Fed likely to pause or cut rates soon due to cooling inflation.
Weakness in U.S. CPI and softer economic indicators weighing on dollar strength.
Rising U.S. debt and global de-dollarization sentiment impacting USD outlook.
🔸 JPY Side (Weakening):
BOJ maintaining ultra-loose policy with no rate hike in sight.
Weak yen has sparked verbal intervention risk, but actual BOJ action remains unlikely near-term.
JPY typically strengthens during risk-off, but with markets stabilizing, appetite for carry trades could weaken JPY further.
🔸 Geopolitics:
Escalation in Middle East could lead to safe haven flows into JPY, but so far minimal impact.
If tensions rise, JPY may temporarily strengthen.
🧠 Conclusion:
Price at key support within a falling channel. A potential bullish reversal is forming with upside targets at 145.17 and 147.47, especially if fundamentals align with a weakening USD and no BOJ surprises.
USDJPY: This Pattern Shows Global Reversal USDJPY is on the brinks to trigger global reversal to the downside
as large Head & Shoulders reversal pattern has been built on the chart
Bearish Trigger is on the Neckline breakdown
Target is on 117 (height of the Head below Neckline)
Massive drop is expected
It matches the area (blue trendline) where the breakout to upside occured
Invalidation is above the Right Shoulder
USD gain back the strengthYesterday candle shows buyer is controlling the market.
I'm expecting market will do a healthy pullback before it goes up again.
where to buy?
I'm waiting at H1 doji area. that is the sweetest spot to go for long.
monitor the lower timeframe price action and wait for the reversal sign is the best IMO.
Good Luck
UJ shortgoing to see if any reaction here, then might take a short, unless if some positive news on USA. will look at 15m timechart, overall i say usa not looking too good over all on news. let see, then will watch the first 3 hour candles, if some strong sellers or not.
if this don't happen, then no trade.
USDJPY Holds Above 2024 LowsUSDJPY is currently retesting its 2024 lows and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the uptrend from January 2023 to July 2024, near the critical 139 zone.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now in oversold territory—levels that have previously marked key reversals for USDJPY in both 2023 and 2024. If a reversal takes hold, potential resistance targets include 142, 145, 147, and 151.
However, if the support around 139 fails to hold, the pair may extend losses toward 138 and potentially 134, which aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
DEFLATION CRASH IS NEARING HEAD N SHOULDER TOP The chart posted should be viewed with the other chart I just posted on twitter .DEFLATION CRASH IS NEARING .Can they reflate the system just enough to create a 5the wave super bubble ?? Not sure But the fact that the drop was perfect fib math and that the high was as well leads me to think I will wait just a little as I feel the world and the markets are at the crossroads of a final bubble or that the 2007 top is in place and we are bouncing back up in the ABC rally as we did in 2007 that rally was .618/66% and .786 in NYA See 2025 forecast so far it is 99% on target .Best of trades WAVETIMER
USD/JPY(20250424)Today's AnalysisMarket News:
The United States hit a 16-month low in April. The total number of new home sales in the United States in March was an annualized to a new high since September 2024.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
142.82
Support and resistance levels:
144.93
144.14
143.63
142.01
141.50
140.71
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 143.63, consider buying, the first target price is 144.14
If the price breaks through 142.82, consider selling, the first target price is 142.01
USD/JPY - What to expect as price consolidates above support?Introduction
The USD/JPY pair has been in a clear daily downtrend, marked by a bearish market structure and strong downside momentum. Sellers remain firmly in control, consistently driving prices lower as the pair respects the prevailing trend. Each failed recovery attempt only reinforces the bearish structure, suggesting that the path of least resistance continues to be to the downside.
FVG
Following the most recent drop, the pair is now consolidating just above a key support level. A short-term relief bounce toward the 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) wouldn't be unexpected. This particular FVG, formed during the last leg down, remains unfilled — and such gaps are often revisited before the trend resumes.
Confluences
Notably, this FVG aligns with the Golden Pocket Fibonacci retracement zone (0.618–0.65), adding further confluence and making it a potentially strong resistance area. If price does retrace into this zone, it could face significant selling pressure and resume its move back toward the daily support zone.
Conclusion
While a bounce from daily support is possible, I expect USD/JPY to encounter resistance at the 4H FVG level. This could cap any recovery attempts and signal a continuation of the broader bearish trend.
Thanks for your support.
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USDJPY 30M CHART PATTERNThis chart is a technical analysis of the USD/JPY currency pair on a 30-minute timeframe. Here's a breakdown of what it's showing:
Pattern: There's a visible double bottom or accumulation pattern around the 139.938 area, indicating potential support and a possible reversal zone.
Entry Point: The chart suggests a breakout trade above the neckline of
April 23, 2025 – USDJPY Long📈 Bias: Bullish | Risk: 1% | 🎯 RRR Target: 1:3
🧠 Reasoning:
Price rejected from HTF zone (previous lows that caused a strong bullish move).
Took a long during London session after a 15M BOS + entry from a 15M OB, confirmed by a 1M BOS ✅
🔍 Confluences:
HTF bullish structure
15M Order Block 📊
1M BOS confirmation ⏱️
Unfilled Asian range above 🌏
🛡️ SL: 20 pips, below recent lows – enough protection.
💬 Note: There was still a deeper 15M OB below, but this trade had strong confirmation. No regrets – solid execution & confident decision.
USDJPY: Bulls Eye Key Support as Trade Optimism Lifts DollarHey Traders, We are currently monitoring USDJPY for a potential buying opportunity as price approaches the 143.200 level, an important area that has acted as both support and resistance in recent sessions. Technically, the pair remains in a well-defined uptrend, and this pullback appears to be part of a healthy correction phase rather than a trend reversal. The 143.200 zone also aligns with a dynamic trendline support, increasing the likelihood of a bullish reaction if price holds above this level. From a fundamental perspective, recent developments have started to tilt in favor of the dollar. News of progress toward a trade agreement between the U.S. and India has sparked optimism, as it may lay the groundwork for similar deals with other key global partners. This has been compounded by unconfirmed reports out of China suggesting potential tariff exemptions in specific sectors, which has further boosted investor sentiment and triggered a broader “risk-on” shift in markets. As geopolitical tensions around trade show signs of easing, the U.S. dollar is regaining strength, fueling the case for further upside in USDJPY. Taken together, the convergence of technical support and improving macroeconomic signals presents a compelling opportunity for bulls, provided we see signs of price stability or a confirmed bounce near the 143.200 area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Daily Analysis – USD/JPY📉🔽 Daily Analysis – USD/JPY
Overall Trend:
The pair is currently in a downtrend, with continued selling pressure dominating the market.
Overbought Condition:
We’ve noticed signs of exhaustion in price movement, suggesting a potential temporary correction.
Next Strategy:
We’re waiting for a price pullback towards strong supply zones, where selling would be the most suitable option, with clear targets in place.
⚡️ Tip:
Closely monitor current price action and be ready to enter the market once the anticipated correction occurs.