USDMYR : Double TopAfter a quarter of a century , we may see the strengthening of the Malaysian Ringgit. The completion of a 5 wave pattern implies potential weakness in Dollar against the Ringgit augmented with the possible double top formation.
Again, 3rd quarter 2023 to 1st quarter 2024 displayed a triple top with persistent resistance just under 4.8000 also suggest a major top is in place. The subsequent downward thrust fortifies that implication.
USDMYX trade ideas
USDMYR Prediction for 2025Resistance Zone at 4.75 - 4.80:
The highlighted red zone represents a strong resistance area, where the price has struggled to break through in the past.
The chart indicates a potential test of this resistance.
Potential Price Reversal:
After reaching the resistance zone, the blue arrow suggests an anticipated reversal, where the price could decline significantly. This is consistent with the technical analysis principle of resistance acting as a ceiling for prices.
Bearish Target:
The second part of the blue arrow points toward a significant decline, possibly below 4.00, indicating a bearish outlook for USD/MYR after the potential rejection at the resistance level.
Awesome Oscillator (AO):
The histogram at the bottom shows the Awesome Oscillator, which is slightly negative but appears to be recovering.
If the momentum shifts, it could align with the upward move toward resistance before reversing.
Key Levels to Watch:
4.75 - 4.80: Resistance zone where the price could face selling pressure.
4.00 - 4.20: A potential support zone if the price declines.
U.S. DOLLAR / MALAYSIAN RINGGIT
Price Action: The price appears to be attempting a consolidation near the lower band, which could suggest that the sharp bearish trend may be slowing down or preparing for a reversal.
Recent price action is forming what looks like a potential base around the 4.25 - 4.30 range, though it is too early to confirm a reversal or bottom formation.
Support: The current support zone lies near the 4.30 level, where the price has stalled.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is near the 4.45 to 4.50 range, aligned with the moving average and the upper Bollinger Band. A break above this could suggest a potential shift in the trend or at least a relief rally.
However, strong bearish pressure persists as shown by the successive red candles, suggesting continued selling pressure.
Bearish: The current momentum suggests further downside could occur unless we see a reversal pattern or a break above the moving average.
Title: Ringgit Rally Fuels Foreign Bond Inflows: A Deep DiveThe Malaysian ringgit has experienced a substantial appreciation, driven by robust foreign investment in the domestic bond market. A surge in capital inflows, totaling RM5.5 billion in July alone, has propelled the ringgit's performance. This analysis delves into the underlying economic factors driving this trend, examining key indicators and assessing the outlook for sustained growth. While the current trajectory is promising, investors must remain cognizant of potential global economic headwinds.
Key Points:
Strong foreign inflows into Malaysian bonds
Ringgit's appreciation driven by multiple factors
Deep dive into economic indicators shaping USD/MYR
Assessment of Malaysia's economic fundamentals
Cautious outlook amid potential global challenges
Key Drivers of the Ringgit Rally:
Currency Appreciation: Investors are buying bonds unhedged, betting on further ringgit gains.
Strong Domestic Economy: Malaysia's economic robustness and expected interest rate stability bolster investor confidence.
Global Factors: Anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts weakening the USD benefit the ringgit.
Economic Indicators Influencing USD/MYR:
Interest Rate Differentials: Higher local rates attract foreign capital, strengthening the ringgit.
Inflation Rates: Low inflation supports currency value.
T rade Balance: Surpluses strengthen the ringgit, reflecting Malaysia's export strength.
Economic Growth: Domestic consumption and government spending drive economic growth, enhancing the ringgit's appeal.
Political Stability: A stable political climate attracts investment, supporting the currency.
Global Economic Conditions: Global trends and geopolitical events affect investor risk appetite and currency flows.
Outlook:
Malaysia's diversified economy, fiscal prudence, and growing middle class underpin the ringgit's strength. Efforts to boost foreign direct investment and exports further support currency appreciation. However, global uncertainties, US monetary policy shifts, and geopolitical tensions could introduce volatility.
near-term target of 4.70RHB Research has not ruled out that the Ringgit may hit RM5.00 against the US dollar in the medium-term.
The forecast from the research house comes as the initial short-term target of 4.60 was surpassed today, leading to a revised near-term target of 4.70, with a potential print at RM4.75.
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complete pullback to the trendline with 1% profit Potential
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usdmyr going above 5.0USDMYR successfully retraced and rebounded at weekly 200 moving average.
USDMYR is very bullish uptrend when still above 200 ma weekly.
It will over the previous high 4.8 (might reach 5.2 or more higher), all is depended on the strength of USD index (DXY).
Disclaimer: Own study research, not trading advice.
Does MYR make corrections before continuing to surge?We use Elliott Wave Theory to forecast future prices. as simple as the rules. i.e., if wave 4 exceeds wave 1, the counting is wrong, etc., it shall be recounted and changed. The main point is to get the forecast and project the main direction in which we may find opportunities for entries. It is impossible to predict perfect patterns or price points.
USD/Malaysian Ringgit : Major Top ???Prices resisted 2008 high 4.7750 providing a potential double top scenario if further slide in coming days. This week's close was on top of the triangle and at 0.618 retracement value may say otherwise.
Projected values appear at around 5.17-5.22 zone. Are we going to see the recovery of Ringgit against USD with the new Government in place??
USDMYR Simple Chart AnalysisUSDMYR - This chart can use to monitor our country economy too, hopefully the double top here can indicate that our MYR can continue to be strengthen under the unity government.
How to view the guidance via chart ( Refer back to pin message guidance if to trade )
Red Line = Support
Blue Line = Resistance
Light Blue = bullish/bearish pattern
Arrow = Double/Trip top/bottom
Red Chip = $$
Green Chip = XX
USD/MYR: A sustained move above 4.7500 looks unlikelyUSD/MYR faces prospects for extra gains, although a convincing breakout of 4.7500 appears not favoured for the time being, notes Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group’s Global Economics & Markets Research.
“We expected USD/MYR to strengthen last week but we were of the view that ‘4.7500 is unlikely to come into view’.” Our view was wrong as USD/MYR rose to a high of 4.7370 before closing at 4.7360. Not surprisingly, conditions are overbought.”
“However, as long as 4.7000 is not breached (minor support is at 4.7150), USD/MYR could rise above 4.7500 this week. In view of the overbought conditions, USD/MYR is unlikely to be able to maintain a foothold above this level. Looking ahead, the next resistance above 4.7500 is at 4.7650”.