Gold fluctuates sharply, with bears dominatingYesterday, the gold market experienced violent fluctuations again. After hitting a high of 3055 during the session, the gold price quickly pulled back to a low of 2956, showing extremely high volatility. Recently, the fluctuation range of gold has been large, with fluctuations of about $100 for three consecutive trading days. Although this volatility is not common, it has become the norm in the current market environment.
Analysis of the causes of fluctuations:
The current violent fluctuations in the gold market are mainly affected by the global economic situation, especially the uncertainty of the international trade situation. In particular, the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions and the extreme volatility of market sentiment have provided strong momentum for gold prices. After China introduced countermeasures to increase tariffs by 34%, the market's expectations of whether the US will further increase tariffs by 50% before the 8th have made market sentiment more tense. Due to the instability of the global economy, the trend of gold will continue to be dominated by market sentiment, and volatility will be difficult to calm down in the short term.
Technical analysis of the gold market:
Daily trend analysis:
Yesterday, gold once again showed a "roller coaster" market, opening low and moving high in the morning, but fell sharply again during the European session and finally closed negative. The 100-point fluctuation range for three consecutive days indicates that market sentiment is highly tense and gold prices are under great pressure.
On the daily chart, after three consecutive negative declines, gold prices formed a large negative line with an upper shadow longer than the lower shadow, which means that they may still face adjustment pressure in the short term. Nevertheless, the market is in an oversold state and there is a need for rebound correction. Therefore, the current lower support of gold prices is around 2955, which constitutes a short-term top and bottom conversion position.
Short-term price range:
As the market still has a need for rebound correction, gold is expected to enter a range oscillation phase. In the short term, the support level of gold prices is in the 2956-2960 range, while the upper resistance is concentrated in the 3025-3030 area. In the context of range oscillation, it will be more effective to maintain a high-altitude and low-multiple operation strategy.
Operation strategy suggestions:
Short layout:
When it rebounds to 3030-3035, you can consider shorting, with a stop loss set above 3040, and a target of 3000-2995.
Long layout:
If the gold price falls back to 2970-2975, it is recommended to consider going long, with a stop loss below 2965 and a target of 2995-3000.
Since the current market sentiment is driven by external economic events and the market has not fully digested the relevant risks in the short term, it is recommended to remain flexible in operation and pay attention to changes in market sentiment and trends driven by news at any time.
Risk warning:
Volatility: The current gold market is extremely volatile. Investors need to pay attention to the impact of breaking news and remain cautious.
Time factor: Even if the gold price fluctuates sharply under the impetus of news, as mentioned earlier, a wave of topping and falling is usually not completed in just three days. Market sentiment may continue to ferment, so the short trend may still need to continue for some time.
Conclusion:
In the current market volatility, it is recommended to adopt a range oscillation strategy and operate flexibly. In the short term, the gold price may fluctuate and consolidate in the range of 2956-3030. In terms of operation, the high-altitude and low-multiple strategy can be appropriately used to arrange near the technical support and resistance levels. At the same time, keep a close eye on external news to avoid being affected by emergencies.
