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XAUUSD.P trade ideas

Gold Blows Past 50-Year Channel — New Supercycle Target $4200Original post + 75,000 pips see below Intra trade idea + 46,000 pips see below Gold has officially broken out of its long-term rising channel, confirming a macro expansion phase. With geopolitical tensions (Russia-Ukraine, Middle East, Taiwan), central bank buying at record levels, and Bitcoin showing signs of a breakdown, gold is being revalued as the ultimate safe-haven. Fibonacci extensions from past cycles point to a third major all-time high between $4,270 and $4,600. We remain long and expect continued institutional rotation from crypto to gold as macro risks intensify. This move appears to be part of a larger historical pattern where each major gold bull market has topped at the -1.414 Fibonacci extension — a level that aligns closely with $4,270. BTC, meanwhile, is showing early signs of correction due to extreme mining difficulty, potential miner capitulation post-halving, and rising macro uncertainty — suggesting capital is flowing back into more traditional hard assets. We’ll monitor how the April open plays out, but with the technicals, fundamentals, and macro narratives all aligning, gold’s breakout seems far from over. 📍Gold has printed one of its most aggressive quarterly candles in history, currently trading around $3,117 — a full breakout above the long-standing macro trend channel, confirming a decisive phase shift in the market. 📍This breakout is not a wick or deviation — Gold has broken clean through the upper boundary of its decades-long rising channel, invalidating the idea of a return to mean and instead pointing to an acceleration phase. 📍Previous all-time highs in Gold have aligned closely with the -1.414 Fibonacci extensions of major bull runs. The first major top (1980) and the second (2011) respected this exact Fib level. Projecting that logic forward, the current structure suggests a third ATH around $4,270 (-1.414), with further upside possible toward $4,608 (-1.618). 📍The March 2025 candle is extremely strong — nearly a vertical move — and while a small short-term pullback is possible depending on April’s open, the longer-term picture remains undeniably bullish. 📊 Technical Outlook: ✅ Breakout above long-term macro channel = structural shift. Re-entry into the channel is highly unlikely at this point. ✅ Major Fib levels ahead: $3,582 (-1.0), $4,270 (-1.414), $4,608 (-1.618). ✅ Gold is showing repeating expansion behavior from prior cycles, with historical confluence at Fibonacci projections. 📍Key Support Levels: ❗ $2,948 – Now flipped to support (-0.618 Fib) ❗ $2,609 – Deeper support (-0.414 Fib), unlikely to be retested unless macro conditions shift 📍Key Resistance Levels: 🎯 $3,582 – Next technical barrier (-1.0 Fib) 🎯 $4,270 – Targeted 3rd ATH (-1.414) 🎯 $4,608 – Macro extension (-1.618), likely terminal point of current cycle 🌍 Fundamental & Geopolitical Context (as of March 2025): 🛑 1. Rising Global Tensions Fueling Safe-Haven Demand The Russia-Ukraine war shows no sign of de-escalation, with new reports indicating increased mobilization on both sides. Simultaneously, conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has intensified, spilling over into broader regional instability in the Middle East. U.S.-China tensions have also resurfaced after Taiwan conducted military exercises and received advanced weaponry from Western allies, provoking responses from Beijing. Trump's renewed political presence and rhetoric on “America First” policies, combined with potential NATO withdrawal, have created uncertainty about future global order. All of this is driving institutions, central banks, and retail investors alike into hard assets like gold — the original safe haven. 📈 2. Central Banks Are Buying Gold at Record Levels 2024 saw the largest central bank gold purchases in history, led by China, Russia, and emerging markets seeking to de-dollarize. The trend has continued into Q1 2025, with multiple central banks publicly declaring increased gold reserves. This structural shift in reserves policy underpins gold demand even during minor pullbacks. 📉 3. Bitcoin Facing Pressure – Gold Poised to Outperform? Bitcoin mining difficulty is at an all-time high as we approach the April 2025 halving. Margins for miners are shrinking rapidly. Many publicly listed mining firms are capitulating or reducing operations — hash rate divergence suggests instability. With interest rates still elevated and risk assets under pressure, Bitcoin is struggling to maintain its highs. Technicals on BTC suggest a correction from current ~$70K levels down to $50K, potentially driven by miner distribution, ETF rotation, and lack of momentum. This has caused a relative rotation from crypto risk assets back into traditional inflation hedges like gold. 🛢 4. Inflation, Oil, and Economic Instability Oil has broken above $100 again amid Middle East instability, feeding back into global inflation concerns. The U.S. economy is showing signs of stagflation: stubborn inflation with weakening job growth. The Fed remains hawkish due to CPI persistence, making liquidity tighter — typically gold-positive. 📉 Bearish Scenario: ❌ Only a breakdown below $2,948 would indicate failed structure. This would put gold back inside the channel, negating the breakout — but with current macro tailwinds, this appears extremely unlikely. ⚡ Summary & Alignment: 🔹 Technicals: Massive breakout above channel + historical Fib extensions imply $4,270–$4,600 targets. 🔹 Fundamentals: War, inflation, de-dollarization, and central bank demand all reinforce gold’s bullish case. 🔹 Bitcoin Weakness: Mining costs + halving + macro pressures = BTC to $50K risk, leading capital rotation into gold. 🔹 Geopolitics: Global uncertainty at multi-decade highs — gold thrives on instability. 📈 Outlook: Extremely Bullish for Gold As fiat volatility, geopolitical instability, and crypto fragility intensify, gold continues to assert its role as the ultimate store of value. Technically and fundamentally, it is aligned for a macro push toward $4,270–$4,600 over the coming quarters. Original idea: Intra idea: Tags: gold, XAUUSD, commodities, forex, technicalanalysis, fibonacci, breakout, macro, geopolitics, safehaven, bitcoin, goldpriceforecast
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Who-Is-Caerus
Short-term analysis for Gold (XAU/USD) 🧠 Technical Summary (As of Chart Date - April 1, 2025) Chart Type: 45-minute timeframe Indicators Used: AO (Awesome Oscillator) Volume Histogram Fibonacci Retracement Price Action Trendlines 📉 Bearish Signals Observed 1. AO (Awesome Oscillator) Negative Divergence Price has made a higher high, but AO is showing a lower high. This classic bearish divergence suggests momentum is weakening despite price rising. A possible trend reversal or pullback is likely. 2. Volume Divergence Similar pattern: price moved higher, but volume declined. Indicates that buying interest is not strong on the recent push up. This reinforces the weakening bullish momentum seen in AO. 🔑 Key Levels (from Chart & Fibonacci) Level Type Value (approx.) Description Immediate Support 3120 Crucial level; breakdown confirms weakness 1st Target 3065 61.8% Fibonacci level, strong support zone Fib Levels 3096, 3065, 3041 Key retracement zones Invalidation Above 3175 Would invalidate short-term bearish setup 🔎 Scenario-Based View 📉 Bearish Scenario (High Probability due to Divergences) If price breaks below 3120, it activates the short setup. Target: First leg down toward 3065, aligning with Fib 0.618 retracement. Momentum and volume weakening support this direction. Expectation: fast move possible due to thin volume above 3120. 📈 Bullish Invalidation If Gold holds above 3120 and makes a strong bullish candle with volume, the divergence may fail. Sustained breakout above 3175 can bring in fresh highs. 📌 Conclusion Gold (XAU/USD) shows strong short-term bearish divergence on both AO and Volume. A break below 3120 could accelerate selling toward 3065, as per Fibonacci and volume structure. Use caution for longs unless 3175 is breached with strength. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Trading and investing involve risk; please do your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by shiva560060
GOLD-SELL strategy 3 hourly chart regression channelGOLD remains moving higher, and as mentioned a few times, its all about trade wars tug-and-war activities. However, this is initial fear, and this will become lesser and lesser overtime. It is extremely overbought currently and RSI is at level that are not falling under normal categories. There correction is needed to release the pressures. SZtrategy SELL or ADD SELL @ $ 3,130-3,160 and take profit in steps (since we are short already) @ $ 3,057 and $ 2,978 for now.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by peterbokma
XAUUSD XAU/USD represents the price of gold in relation to the US dollar and is one of the most traded commodities in global financial markets. It is influenced by factors such as inflation, interest rates, geopolitical events, and central bank policies, making it a key asset for investors seeking stability during economic uncertainty. Gold often acts as a safe-haven asset, with demand increasing in times of market volatility or currency devaluation. The relationship between gold and the dollar tends to be inverse, meaning when the dollar strengthens, gold prices typically decline, and vice versa. Traders and investors closely monitor economic data, Federal Reserve decisions, and global financial trends to predict movements in the XAU/USD pair.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by HavalMamar
XAUUSD next week analysis strategyFrom the current market perspective, positive market news, a series of favorable economic data, and rising safe-haven sentiment have driven gold prices higher for four consecutive weeks, surging from $2,858 to $3,086 per ounce. After these four rounds of sharp rallies, gold is now approaching the critical $3,100 threshold. When gold fails to break through the 3,100 resistance level, we may consider the following strategies: initiate short positions at high levels, buy on pullbacks, in the middle price range, we should observe more and trade less. Be cautious when chasing orders and patiently wait to enter the market at key price levels. XAUUSD trading strategy sell @ 3085-3090 buy @ 3055-3060 If you have any investment-related questions, you can join my VIP membership, and I will provide dedicated answers to your queries.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by George_Lester
3.28 Gold breaks new high again, holding on is the keyGold price hits a new record high of 3086, and today's low is the key Gold price hits a new record high of 3086, which is in line with our bullish thinking of restarting strength since Tuesday Now the price has also broken through the upper track of the green channel line. The next focus is on keeping low. Keeping low and breaking high will accelerate. Breaking the low point will easily return to sweeping Today's low point defense position has two, the first is the early trading low of 3054, because it is a direct rise in the early trading to break the new high, and the afternoon continues to break the new high. In this case, it is particularly important to hold the early trading low ; The second is the position along the green channel line, 3063-3061, which is also the position of the acceleration starting point Then, next, hold the position along the green channel line, and switch upwards for at least 50-70 US dollars, corresponding to the resistance of the 3100-3115 area The key point is to hold low, hold low and break high to see acceleration, and break the low point to turn to sweep As shown in the figure, this wave of confirmed support began to rise, starting from breaking through the green dotted line suppression. After the breakthrough, repeatedly stepping back to confirm the 3015 upper and lower areas Support, then stand up and stabilize in the 3033-3030 area, and start an upward breakthrough In the process, it is accompanied by a deep squat of 18-20 US dollars. After the leverage is completed, it will rise by more than 40 US dollars to break the new high For the market that directly rose in the morning, there was a second sprint to break the high in the afternoon, so refer to 3068-3066 as support to continue to layout the bullish sprint to the 3080-3082 area The price also accelerated the sprint and rose, and slightly exceeded the range of 3086 : Suppression line Under pressure, enter adjustment, squat 18-20 US dollars, confirm the support and continue to pull up more than 40 US dollars (what needs to be considered and verified at this moment) For this pressure position, the focus is on the 3082-3085 area (now the excess range has reached 3086), using this as a suppression to find a space range of 18-20 US dollars, corresponding to the 3062-3060 range The short position in the 3082 area fell to 3072-3070 as expected Verify the conjecture step by step, time is the best verification tool! Today is Friday, still the old rules, only provide information reminders for cooperative friends, if you need, you can find us, looking forward to the good news you have received!
TVC:GOLD
by AIan_Gold
XAUUSD Today's analysis 3100On Thursday (April 3rd), Asian markets opened to Trump’s surprise tariff announcement. Surging risk - aversion pushed spot gold to a record $3,167.60 per ounce. But profit - taking by jittery investors soon reversed the rally, sending prices down to $3,054.19. Later, as economic uncertainty grew, bargain - hunters drove the price back up to $3,125. Macroeconomic and geopolitical factors will keep swaying the gold market. Upcoming US labor data may influence Fed policy, in turn affecting gold. Global trade tensions remain high, and more capital may flow into gold as a safe - haven. Technically, $3,100 per ounce is a key support and resistance level. A sustained price above it could draw more bulls, while a break below may unleash bears. Gold mining stocks, tied to company operations and geopolitics, also merit attention as they mirror gold’s short - term swings. The market has been extremely volatile lately. If you can't figure out the market's direction, you'll only be a cash dispenser for others. If you also want to succeed，Follow the link below to get my daily strategy updates
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by BenGray9
XAUUSD retracement for the long to another ATH📝 Key Observations: Break of Structure (BoS) - Price recently broke previous support levels, indicating a shift in market direction. Strong Bullish Momentum - The aggressive move up suggests that buyers are stepping in at the demand zone. H1 Supply Zone - Price is currently reacting to an H1 supply zone, which may cause a pullback. M15 Demand Zone - A key support area around $3,055 has been marked, where price may revisit before continuing upward. Bullish Projection - The red arrow suggests a potential retracement into the demand zone before continuing higher. 📌 Trade Consideration: ✅ Entry Opportunity: If price retraces into the M15 demand zone and shows bullish confirmation (e.g., engulfing candles, wicks rejecting lower prices). ✅ Target: The next significant resistance level around $3,147. ✅ Stop-Loss: Below the M15 demand zone ($3,055) for a good risk-to-reward ratio. ⚠️ Risk Factors: If price fails to hold at the demand zone, further downside movement is possible. Supply zone rejection could trigger a deeper correction before continuing up.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Marshall-FX
4-hr Gold: Targeting $130 Upward Momentum Gold is undergoing a correction, as investors take profits to offset losses from falling stock prices, impacting their margins. However, we anticipate a renewed wave of buyers entering soon, given Gold's strong safe-haven appeal in times of market uncertainty. From a technical perspective, Gold is approaching a key support level, and we see an opportunity to capitalize on the upcoming rebound. Our buy order is set at $3,070, positioned slightly above the 38% Fibonacci retracement level, which often acts as strong support in an uptrend. For risk management, our take-profit (TP) is set at $3,200, aligning with the next resistance zone, while our stop-loss (SL) is 3% below the entry price, ensuring a balanced risk-reward ratio. Considering current market dynamics, we expect bullish momentum to resume soon, as investors seek stability and protection against ongoing economic uncertainty.
SKILLING:XAUUSDLong
by Trendsharks
XAUUSD (Gold) is bearish scenario on Daily until 2,940.00 quote Hello guys and welcome one more time to my detailed yet simple strategies to make profit out of any situation in forex, So, another month, another strategy, in fact, a modified strategy which I hope works better than my other previous 2 trades with simplified strategy. Maybe, it was too simple. Let's go to the chart though. Daily chart is bearish, as I can see so we go to 15 min chart and seek for opportunity to sell. So, from now on the next level to touch is a resistence point from March 25, 2025 which became a sort of support which is 3,070.00 and the next one stronger is 3,058.00. So, let's see what happenes next. You, what do you think?
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by 10yearsfxexpert
Gold H1 | Approaching multi-swing-low supportGold (XAU/USD) is falling towards a multi-swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 3,106.58 which is a multi-swing-low support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 3,071.00 which is a level that lies underneath a multi-swing-low support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 3,162.54 which is a swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by FXCM
The long-short game of gold at high levels is intensifyingAfter continuing to rise, gold fell from its highs during yesterday's US trading session to test the 3100 integer support, and then stabilized and rebounded. After today's shock repair, the gold price finally stood above 3100, showing an overall strong trend. However, from the technical structure, the upward trend line at the hourly level has been broken, and the price has turned to horizontal horizontal operation, entering a high-level wide-range shock adjustment stage. At present, gold is in a typical long-short stalemate, and the key resistance above is in the 3134-3127 area, which is both the previous high and an important top-bottom conversion pressure zone. If this resistance area can be effectively broken, the gold price is expected to further test the 3150 mark. The primary support below is the 3105-3113 range. The gains and losses in this area will determine the short-term long-short trend. If this support is lost, it may trigger a deeper correction, testing key support levels such as 3085 and 3070-3065 in turn. Although gold has shown initial signs of stagflation, it is recommended to still take the low-long strategy as the main idea and the high-short strategy as the auxiliary before the short trend is clearly formed. In terms of specific operations, short orders can be arranged in the 3134-3140 area, with the stop loss set above 3150, the target is 3115, and further down to the 3100 mark; at the same time, long orders can be tried in the 3100-3105 area, with the stop loss set below 3090, and the targets are 3130 and 3150 respectively. The current market is at a critical turning point. Investors need to pay close attention to the breakthrough direction of the wide range of 3100-3150, and pay attention to controlling positions, strictly stop losses, and guard against sudden volatility risks. Before the trend becomes clear, it is recommended to maintain flexible operations and avoid excessive pursuit of gains and losses.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Wealth-Helmsman