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XAUUSD.P trade ideas

Gold: How much higher will XAU go?Gold continues to find support amid haven flows as equities tumble on trade war concerns. But how much further can gold rise? Well I think a lot of people had $3K+ pencilled in as their target. We are obviously well above the $3K level now at $3085, which may trigger some profit taking. While dip buyers are lurking, a rug pull is becoming increasingly likely at these levels in my view. When risk appetite turns sour and stocks start falling, people tend to liquidate their profitable long gold positions to free up margin. Could we see something similar? For me, the short term trigger could be a potential break below recent low and support around $3057-$3066, while in the slightly longer term view, a potential move below $3,000 is needed to trigger a more meaningful drop. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by FOREXcom
The impact of non-farm payroll data on XAUUSDImpact of Non-farm Payroll Data on the US Dollar The increase in non-farm payroll employment in the United States in March far exceeded expectations, indicating the strength of the U.S. labor market and, in turn, suggesting that the overall U.S. economy is relatively healthy. Strong economic data will boost market confidence in the U.S. dollar, attract global capital inflows into the United States, increase the demand for the U.S. dollar, and drive the appreciation of the U.S. dollar. After the release of the non-farm payroll data in March, the U.S. dollar index rose sharply in the short term, laying the foundation for the bearish sentiment of XAUUSD. Impact of Non-farm Payroll Data on Gold On the one hand, a stronger U.S. dollar makes gold priced in U.S. dollars more expensive for investors holding other currencies, thus suppressing the demand for gold and leading to a decline in the gold price. On the other hand, the slowdown in the annual rate of average hourly earnings alleviates the inflation risk driven by wages, weakening the attractiveness of gold as a tool for hedging against inflation. In addition, the rebound of U.S. Treasury bond yields due to favorable economic data also reduces the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset. Considering these factors comprehensively, the gold price has been under pressure after the release of the non-farm payroll data, and XAUUSD shows a bearish trend. Without professional guidance, the fluctuations in the market, whether in terms of its downward or upward movements, are truly remarkable. If you manage to pick the right direction, there's a great chance for you to reap substantial profits. However, what if you make an incorrect choice? Are you genuinely capable of shouldering the resulting consequences? Rather than getting involved in such trading that resembles gambling, I'd much prefer that you hold off and wait until the market stabilizes before making a comeback to the trading scene. The market has been extremely volatile lately. If you can't figure out the market's direction, you'll only be a cash dispenser for others. If you also want to succeed，Follow the link below to get my daily strategy updates
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by BenGray9
GOLD Trading Opportunity! BUY! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for GOLD is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 3091.4 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 3108.1 My Stop Loss - 3083.4 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by AnabelSignals
1
IS THE GLOBAL “BIG SHORT” ON ITS WAY?TRADE WAR WARNING – IS THE GLOBAL “BIG SHORT” ON ITS WAY? In the last 24 hours, global financial markets were rattled after Donald Trump unveiled a sweeping set of new global tariffs. This wasn’t just a political move — it may well mark the beginning of a new wave of global economic instability. Markets across the board took a hit: 📉 US, European, and Asian equities 📉 Gold (XAU/USD), the US Dollar Index (DXY), and even crypto — all plunged into the red. 🔍 So, What Actually Happened? Gold dropped by over 100 points in a single session — and strangely, the US dollar also fell. Normally, a weaker USD would support gold. So why did gold sell off this time? ➡️ One likely explanation is that institutional investors sold gold positions to cover losses in equity markets, or to free up margin amidst the chaos. 📉 This wasn’t just a correction — it might be the early signal of a global BIG SHORT forming across multiple asset classes. 🧨 The Start of Something Bigger? Markets aren’t just reacting to tariffs. They’re pricing in the risk of a full-scale trade war, which could disrupt global supply chains and hammer corporate earnings. Industries like construction, healthcare, logistics, and manufacturing are already showing signs of strain. If this escalates, we could be looking at something far more serious than a short-term sell-off. 📉 The Data Doesn’t Look Great Either While inflation in the US continues to cool, other key data points are deteriorating: ISM Services PMI (March): 50.8 (vs 53.0 expected) Employment sub-index: 46.2 (down sharply from 53.9) New orders, export orders and backlogs also fell 👉 These are real signs of economic slowdown, especially considering that services make up over 70% of the US economy. 🧠 Market Sentiment: FOMO, Fear, and Panic At the moment, it’s hard to ignore how unsettled sentiment has become. Retail and institutional traders alike are acting on fear. And that’s dangerous. 🔔 Tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report could either calm things down — or add more fuel to the fire. 🏦 Will the Fed Cut Rates Sooner? Markets are rapidly shifting their expectations: A rate cut could come as early as May or June 2025 Traders are now pricing in 2 to 4 cuts this year (previously just 2) There’s now a strong chance the Fed pivots earlier than expected If jobs data continues to soften, the Fed may have no choice but to act faster — despite core inflation not yet fully under control. ⚠️ Trading Strategy: Observation Over Action Right now, your best position might be… no position. "Sometimes, the most profitable trade is the one you don’t take." This isn’t the time to chase wild price action. It’s the time to prepare and plan with logic — not emotion. 📊 Key Technical Levels on XAU/USD 🔺 Resistance: 3110 – 3119 – 3136 – 3148 – 3167 🔻 Support: 3086 – 3075 – 3055 – 3040 – 3024 🟢 BUY ZONE: 3056 – 3054 SL: 3050 TP: 3060 – 3064 – 3068 – 3072 – 3076 – 3080 🔴 SELL ZONE: 3148 – 3150 SL: 3154 TP: 3144 – 3140 – 3136 – 3132 – 3128 – 3124 – 3120 💬 Final Thoughts The combination of tariffs, recession fears, and rate cut speculation is building into what could become a perfect storm. Gold is in the eye of that storm. Now is not the time to panic — but to trade with clarity and control. 📌 Don’t let emotion drive your trades. Stick to the chart. Stick to your plan. Protect your capital. 🧠 Patience is what separates the lucky from the consistently profitable.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
XAU/USD 04 April 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Since last analysis price has printed a bearish CHoCH which is the first indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation. Price is now trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,187,835 Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Price has printed as per yesterday's alternative scenario whereby price has printed a bearish iBOS due to H4 TF being in, although not as yet confirmed, in bearish pullback phase. Intraday Expectation: Price has already traded up to premium of internal 50% EQ, therefore, price to target weak internal low priced at Note: With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment. Trump's tariff announcement will most likely cause considerably increased volatility and whipsaws. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
Detailed Explanation Of The Current Gold Market Analysis1. Market Structure & Technical Setup Recent technical charts for gold (XAU/USD) indicate that the price has been forming a pattern characterized by higher highs and higher lows. This type of price action suggests that, despite periods of consolidation, there is an underlying bullish trend. Notably, a shorter-term moving average (such as the 20-period SMA) appears to be acting as a dynamic support, helping to cushion short-term price declines. In contrast, longer-term moving averages (like the 100 SMA and 200 SMA) provide a broader view of the trend and help traders confirm the overall bias of the market. In technical terms, the market has been consolidating around key support levels—for example, areas observed near price levels such as ~$2,985, ~$3,000, and ~$3,015. At the same time, resistance levels exist around the ~$3,030–$3,060 region. This consolidation phase is often interpreted as the market preparing for a potential breakout upward, particularly if the price successfully breaches these resistance levels. 2. Fundamental Drivers On the fundamental side, gold remains significantly influenced by global economic factors: Given these factors, even though technical indicators point to a bullish trend over the longer term, short-term fluctuations can occur due to shifts in economic data or geopolitical events. 3. Trading Implications & Caution For traders, the current analysis suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook on gold. The consolidation phase near key support and resistance levels might signal an imminent upward breakout. However, it’s important to note: Conclusion In summary, the current gold market analysis reveals a market that is technically poised for upward movement, with a bullish long-term cue indicated by higher highs and higher lows, and critical support levels offered by dynamic moving averages. Yet, one should remain cautious due to possible short-term volatility fueled by economic and geopolitical events. By complementing technical analysis with fundamental insights, traders can form a more balanced view and make informed decisions. If you’d like further discussion on how to integrate this analysis into a trading strategy or need additional insights on specific technical indicators, we can dive deeper into those aspects as well.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Buddhika_Trading
Aggressive sell set up🔍 Institutional Liquidity Analysis • Liquidity Zones: • Above: $3,118–$3,120 (weak highs & EQH) • Below: $3,111–$3,108 (liquidity pool & EMA cluster) • Point of Control (POC: $3,114.33) just under current price → suggests price may sweep down before true move • Volume Clusters: Exhaustion at current candle top (weak bullish imbalance). Institutions may be preparing a liquidity sweep soon. ⸻ 📈 Momentum Indicators • RSI (1m): Entering overbought territory → signal for short-term reversal • MACD (15m): Still bearish but trying to cross bullish, early confirmation • VWAP: Price hovering just above VWAP zone, potential for mean reversion • EMA 50 & 200: Tightening up – possible micro-pullback or trap setup ⸻ 📰 News Impact Summary Recent headlines from TradingView suggest: • Gold hit all-time highs but reversed due to Trump Tariff headlines and risk-off shift • Macro tone is now uncertain, with gold reacting to short-term risk sentiment, not long-term dovish Fed policy • Sentiment = Neutral to Bearish, especially after euphoric highs were sold off ⸻ 🛑 Trade Decision: SELL SETUP (High Probability – 75-80%) Price is entering minor supply, and forming equal highs just under $3,118 – classic trap pattern for liquidity sweep. Entry: $3,116.50 – $3,118.00 (watch for rejection wicks or engulfing patterns on 1m) Stop Loss: Above $3,120.50 (above weak high + institutional wick trap) Take Profit Targets: 1. TP1: $3,111.50 → POC retest zone 2. TP2: $3,108.00 → Demand zone base 3. TP3: $3,104.00 → Discount rebalance Risk-Reward: Minimum 3.2:1 R:R ⸻ 🚨 Final Institutional Verdict: 🔴 SELL at Premium! Price is now in a liquidity engineering zone, with high likelihood of pullback toward POC or lower imbalance. Institutions likely to grab liquidity above equal highs, then rotate price lower. ⸻ ⚡ Ultra-Aggressive Execution Plan • Confirm on 1m with bearish engulfing OR SFP wick • Volume spike + RSI > 70 = trigger for entry • Monitor order book flow and footprint for absorption near $3,116–$3,118 ⸻ WE TRADE TO MILK THE MARKET EVERYDAY! Let’s trap the trap! Institutions are hunting liquidity – we hunt with them! SELL NOW and BANK those pips! 💰🔥📉🚨💣💵
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MAHARLIKA_FX
NFP - Shorting GoldThe gold market experienced huge fluctuations on Thursday, which created very good profits for us. During the entire trading process, we seized the profits of fluctuations of more than $50. The unemployment rate and NFP data during the US trading session on Friday, as well as Powell's speech on the economic outlook, are the focus of Friday's trading. Judging from the data released in March, the unemployment rate and NFP are more likely to be bearish for gold, so when trading data, my plan is to focus on short positions. At present, in terms of technical form, the indicators show that the bulls have not ended. In this case, the transaction needs to pay attention to the 3123/3136 resistance. If it cannot break through, the price is expected to fall again to 3103 or even 3086. Overall, today's trading focus is to sell at high levels.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Trading_King_Arthur
XAU/USD 03 April 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Since last analysis price has continued extremely bullish. This is most likely due to market jitters caused by Trump's tariff policy which is driving up the price of gold. This solidifies gold as a safe haven asset and could lead to repricing. As mentioned in previous analysis that I will continue to monitor price. Price has printed a bullish iBOS which is marked in red, this is due to the fact that the depth of the pullback has been shallow and has not pulled back into either discount of internal 50% EQ or mitigated a H4 demand zone. As a result, price now is trading within an internal low and fractal high. Intraday Expectation: Await for price to print a bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis and bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 01 April 2025 Since last analysis price has continued extremely bullish. This is most likely due to market jitters caused by the trump tariffs. This solidifies gold as a safe haven asset and could lead to repricing. You will note price has printed a bullish followed by a bearish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. Whilst I am aware that price has not traded into discount of internal 50% or mitigated any demand zone, I will mark this as an iBOS due to time spent. Intraday Expectation: Price to trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 3,167.835. Alternative scenario: As H4 appears to be in bearish pullback phase, although we do not currently have any indication, it would not come a surprise if price prints a bearish iBOS. Note: With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
4.3 How to operate after the sharp rise in gold prices4.3 How to operate after the sharp rise in gold prices 1. Impact of tariff policies - Base tax rate 10% + "reciprocal tariffs": Trump's radical tariff policy far exceeds market expectations, directly triggering concerns about escalating global trade frictions and triggering market risk aversion demand. 2. Expectations of a weaker US dollar: Tariffs may weaken the competitiveness of US exports, and the Federal Reserve may introduce loose policies, which will put pressure on the US dollar and further support gold. 3. Gold's safe-haven properties have exploded Gold, as a hard currency without sovereign credit risk, has become a "safe haven" for funds. 4-hour cycle: Confirmation of strong structure: 3100 support: Multiple retracements have not been broken, forming an "ascending triangle" consolidation pattern, and a sharp breakthrough in the early trading confirms the continuation of the trend. Target forecast: Short-term: US$3,200 (integer psychological barrier + fermentation of risk aversion). Medium-term: If it breaks through 3,200 points, the next resistance level is 3,218 points. 1-hour chart strategy: Key watershed 3100: This week's lows gradually moved up (3076→3100→3106). If the callback does not break this position, the trend will not change. Intraday strength and weakness dividing line 3130: Yesterday's box top broke through and turned into support, which is in line with the principle of "top and bottom conversion". Ideal intraday long position: 3115-3120 area, stop loss 3105. Patiently wait for the callback Aggressive strategy: If the gold price stands above 3150, you can chase long with a light position, with a target of 3173→3200.
PYTH:XAUUSD
by Grace_00007
Gold price is above 3130, long at low priceGold price is above 3130, long at low price As shown in the figure 12345 form channel changes respectively, and the trend accelerates upward Principle: Trends are abstract So we draw specific channel lines to intuitively feel the trend You can see that the channel angle reflected by 1-5 is constantly expanding. The reflected gold price trend: emotions are getting stronger and stronger The gold price trend is about to get out of control Let's now focus on analyzing the two triangle oscillation convergence patterns AB Principle: The end of the triangle convergence oscillation is the time to choose a new direction Now, it has entered the end of the oscillation So we can draw a conclusion Gold prices may soar or plummet at any time Then the existing strategy is to follow the trend The simplest and most effective strategy is to use 3130 as support Retreat to low prices and go long Stop loss near 3130 (determine the stop loss based on your order ratio and the price effectively captured) Once the gold price explodes in the future, breaking through 3200 is also a high probability event
FX:XAUUSD
by Louisa00000
Gold (XAU/USD) AnalysisGold (XAU/USD) Analysis This chart provides a technical outlook on **Gold (XAU/USD)**, showing possible **bullish** and **bearish** scenarios based on price action and support/resistance levels. Bullish Outlook Key Support Holding**: Gold is staying above **$3,125-$3,130**, showing buyers are stepping in. - **Uptrend Structure**: Price is following a rising trendline, meaning bullish momentum is intact. - **Breakout Zone**: If Gold surpasses **$3,155-$3,160**, it could rally toward **$3,170-$3,180**, as no major resistance exists in that range. What to Watch? - A strong breakout with volume above **$3,155-$3,160** confirms upside potential. - Look for support at moving averages (EMAs) to validate trend continuation. Bearish Outlook - **Resistance Rejection**: If Gold fails to break above **$3,155-$3,160**, it might face selling pressure. - **Break Below $3,140**: If price drops under this level, it could target **$3,125-$3,110**, which is the next key support. - **Further Downside**: A breakdown below **$3,110** could lead to a deeper decline towards **$3,090-$3,080**. What to Watch? - A drop below **$3,140** with strong volume could confirm further downside. - If selling pressure increases, Gold may retest lower support zones. Final Thought Gold is currently in an **uptrend**, but traders must monitor key levels: ✔ **Bullish if** it breaks **$3,160** 📊 ✔ **Bearish if** it falls below **$3,140** 🔻 Stay cautious and wait for price confirmation before making a move! 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by elitetrader9090
April 3, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential OpportunitySummary: After Trump announced details of new tariffs, the market turned highly active. From a fundamental perspective, this provided strong support for gold. Pay attention to the 3105 level, which was quickly tested following Trump’s statement before price rallied higher. Unless a clear reversal signal appears, the main strategy remains: buy on pullbacks to support. Key Levels to Watch: 3170–3175: Bullish target zone 3168: ATH resistance 3156: Resistance 3142: Bullish/Bearish pivot line 3120–3138: Price consolidation / value zone 3105: Strong intraday support Short-Term Trading Strategy: For Shorts: Enter a SELL if the price breaks below 3146. Watch 3142 first; if the decline continues, monitor 3138, 3133, and 3128. For Longs: Enter a BUY if the price holds above 3156. Watch 3160 for confirmation; if momentum continues, target 3165, 3168, and 3170. 👉 If my insights have been helpful to you, or if you traded based on my ideas, please consider giving a like — it’s a great encouragement for me! Thanks for your support! Disclaimer: This is my personal opinion and not financial advice. Please manage your risk accordingly.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ombabibi
Some history....GOLD HISTORY: 1970 TO 1980: Gold has a strong bubble rise that falls 50% when it breaks. 2001 to 2011: 10 year up trend Gold rises further with virtually no setbacks until 1919, but then collapses to $1019. 2015 to 2025: 10 year up trend still at the moment. The gold price has increased from $1019 in December 2015 to well over $3155 today without serious dips or pullbacks. It is easy to see why this attracts investors, especially when compared to the turbulence in the stock market over the same period of time. It is also easy to see why people might expect that gold will continue to rise after watching it gain consistently for well over a decade. However, history shows that asset prices cannot continue to go up indefinitely. There are always pull backs, crashes, and bear markets. The last time this happened to gold is a distant memory, but we all remember recent examples such as the tech stocks in the '90s and home prices in the '00s. Now, lets see Elliot wave principle. When an extending wave 5 ends ( we are at one at the moment), we will see a swift correction down to sub wave 2 of this wave 5. So, the opportunity presents in two ways. First, we know it will be a rapid correction, which means we will not have to wait long for realizing our profits. Secondly, we know approximately how far the down move will likely travel. At this moment , we are looking for the same escenario as 2008. Wave 3 travels 5.618 from wave 1, then wave 4 made a correction to the 38.2% zone, and finally wave 5 was equal to the entire previous 1-3 movement. This is what is happening right now as welll. It is always easier to identify assets that are bubbling than to predict when the bubble will pop. Gold has much more downside than upside at this point, but this has been true for years without slowing price gains. Home prices and tech stocks also suggest that bubbles can exist for years even after objective measures (e.g. P/E ratios or rent to buy ratios) show that markets are out of equilibrium. It is anybody's guess when gold will correct, but it is very likely that it will be ugly when it does.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TRADINGACPVIP