1BigPapi

1BigPapi

I did some quick back of napkin math. I logged the average duration of DXY overbought conditions before it properly rejected below the 70 RSI . This is all approximated based on the 4d DXY chart. If you discount the two outliers (the 16d and 231d events) your average duration is 49 days overbought before seeing a proper rejection. If we included those outliers...

1BigPapi

Watching some of these local support levels (in green on the right price column). The best outcome is that we continue to respect the $38.7k as support going into Monday which barely gives us a higher low. If we drop further, an optimistic target is around $38.1k on the downtrend channel support. Below there is $37k, $35k.At $35k the macro uptrend is...

1BigPapi

Do with this what you will. Bitcoin spent 209 days since 06 January 2021 trading in this range. Thats approaching almost half of the past 16 months with at least intraday between $35k and $45k.

1BigPapi

Looking at the nail biter from yesterday - Bitcoin is riding this lower support... whales really wants to sweat us. Half of trading is psychological. Trade safely and by managing your risk, you also manage your stress- and thats how you become a winner in crypto. Once you master emotions and risk, you can master the technical side of trading.. and thats how you...

1BigPapi

50 years of $DXY. Inflation peaks historically correlated to local DXY lows. Now we have DXY in 2022 at a 30 year resistance, presenting bearish divergence on momentum, semantics are questionable on a good day.. Things could get very spicy soon. Of course I watch this because of it's inverse correlation to Bitcoin.. and this is a big part of why I believe we...

1BigPapi

Currently dropped to a confluence of the 78% fib and key support levels. We closed out a long running series of whale bids from $44l to $40k, and I think the last piece of the puzzle is the CPI report Tuesday. General market sentiment is likely a combination of factors- the US Government making public statements every couple days (for two weeks) about inflation...

1BigPapi

As noted yesterday, if we drop below $41.3k I was looking at supports around mid $39.5k. We did log a bounce there and with the trading day coming to a close I hope we'll see less volatility going into tomorrow.. more downside can't be ruled out but like I said - $40k range has a lot of support too. But honestly the next step largely depends on the government...

1BigPapi

Going into this week, we have a lot of earning reports and more importantly - Tuesday the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released, reporting on the state of inflation. It might be accompanied by language from the US Government that either spooks investors or lifts the markets.. but like any big news event, there is increased volatility and potential selloffs...

1BigPapi

Looking for a high timeframe dose of bullish optimism? Below is one of Papi's theories: Knowing how US Dollar Index (DXY) and the Bitcoin and crypto markets have an inverse correlation (meaning when DXY is dropping, Bitcoin often responds by rising). So knowing that the narrative around the USD/petrol dollar is weakening, after the Russia sanctions leave some...

1BigPapi

Knowing how DXY and Bitcoin/Crypto have an inverse correlation. Also knowing that arguably the narrative around the USD/petrol dollar is weakening, especially after the Russia sanctions. And this as we approach a multi-decade resistance level for DXY. The last two taps on this level triggered a steep correction and two bull markets for crypto. And since the...

1BigPapi

That 12h 20 EMA rejection occurred on top of the bullish cross/intersection of the 20/21w MA band. Then the 20w SMA knocked it down again. Interesting double rejection. I'm always inclined to attribute reactions to the 12h 20 EMA as the result of algo/bot trading. Price often responds to it. Rumors are that whales wanted to finish accumulation in this range...

1BigPapi

We had a nice rally through the last half of March, and now confronted with a bit of correction/consolidation in the mid $40s. Today saw a selloff in many markets after a comment from the US Government about raising rates in May at the next FOMC meeting. For Bitcoin that resulted in around a 6% selloff at peak, which is respectable but not extreme. I marked with...

1BigPapi Updated 

If you look at the current pattern, we have what appears to be a bearish pennant. If you do a "by the books" target for breakout, that would land it firmly at a double bottom around $30k. That said I don't expect we have the liquidity for such a dump at the moment, unless whales spend a great deal of their holdings to do so. We still see macro net accumulation of...

1BigPapi

As noted in earlier posts, I watch the 20w SMA and 21w EMA with great interest as a marker of local cycles. We are approaching a point of validating bullish sentiment in the market if these cross bullish and the chart continues up. Now does that mean to expect $100k? No. In fact given the macroeconomics atm, despite a very bullish and supportive narrative...

1BigPapi

Something in the back of my mind through the past few months was how other markets performed compared to Bitcoin and Crypto. It appears to me (admittedly not an economist) that crypto was quick to begin correcting after the November statements by the FOMC that tapering would begin in Q1 2022. Not all markets priced the news in at the same pace and despite the...

1BigPapi

This isn't an overlay in-depth analysis. I just wanted to show that we have some key levels currently being respected. Losing one or both will have increasing levels of bearish implications for the market. We are setting higher lows, but we aren't reaching higher highs yet. If this continues, it does reflect a growing bullish sentiment, but I think the FOMC this...

1BigPapi

Three things to watch this week - ❧❧❧ Federal Open Market Committee - FOMC (15-16 March) is when the US Government will announce it's strategy (or lack thereof) for addressing inflation (for example- raise interest rates), which can directly impact markets like crypto or stocks. Before the Russian/Ukraine conflict it appeared the Fed planned to come out more...

1BigPapi

Stone Cold Steve Austin coming out of retirement after nearly 20 years. Excuse Papi while he buys Wrestlemania tickets. Speaking of 20 years - the Dollar Index is in a range it rejected from repeatedly in the past 20 years. Could history repeat? $DXY down = $BTC up. Bear in mind this is a 3 month chart, so the rejection isn't necessarily a fast event, if it...