Breakout run from EUR open, followed by stop run through 1.1442. On the 5m chart, 3 pushes shows slowing momentum. On the 15m chart, doji reversal followed by bearish price action (solid red down). Perfect opportunity to enter when it pulled back to 1.1472. On the 1h chart, reversal swung to fib618, where another 5m and 15m reversal appeared. Another reversal...
Started using the 20 day range expectation box. Went long 1/3 1.13428 after seeing the slide down from 1.14 with no fib50 pullback. TP at 1.142 and 1.1440 at the middle of the channel. TP mid channel should be met in 2 days, like in the past. If it does, expecting to go further to upper bound of channel. If doesn't, expect breakdown of channel.
Got out of shorts last tranche 1.298. Net long 1/3 starting 1.2947. Expecting to retest high. If yesterday's low breaks, will get out.
If the past 3 events since 2017 are any indication, this should reverse right around here on the weekly. Watch the Fib.618 and confirmation for a possible reversal.
Chance upon this trade when I opened the chart. Vertical line is where I saw the price. Triangle target this week met. Put in a limit order 2712, SL at 2717 at IB IB500US. Will take half at retest of support and see where the other half will end up. Note CFD price varies from ES by a few.
Added to shorts at 1.3133 because of toppish fractal.
Important daily resistance happening around 2700. Larger fib is from 2016 low.
If ever ES breaks to the downside after this earnings week, target is around fib.50
Short at upper bound of consolidation and tight stop.
Almost hit the higher timeframe fib.50, will wait for it to reach before shorting. Take at the lower timeframe fib.50
Expecting H&S formation downside target to almost same as area as fib.50. GBPAUD has also been notably weaker than GBPUSD the past 48 hours.
Waiting to go long on fib.50 to prepare for another leg up.
Expecting to revisit 1.2980 to 1.3024 level. Pullback to the downward daily trendline.
Resistance around the fib.50 since April 2018
Nearing the fib.50 from April 2018. That fib.50 area is also where we reach 700 pips from the 12 week MA.
Going back into the channel, TP1 1.8220, TP2 1.8084
Resistance expected around 2707, confluence of trendline, 2 fibs.
Conflicting views on the weekly, I decide not to have a weekly bias. Stats say higher chance of 1.26 than 1.34, but ECB is coming up this week and all of the past week's runup have already retraced. Made my quota today 2 trades from last night and this morning, both on the shorts. Waiting to fade at 1.2964.