ABRAK75

ABRAK75

The Norweigan Krona and Canadian dollar haven't benefited a whole lot from the sharp rise in oil prices over the past couple of days. I suspect that this is due to traders' prudent stance ahead of important macro data later this week. Given that USDNOK prices are currently hanging below their annual highs, there is clearly room for a NOK rally over the short term....

ABRAK75

I didn't really expect the euro to rise so sharply this week, but the unexpected events that caused a significant risk aversion move in markets starting with Tsipras's resignation Thursday led to an unwinding of carry trade positions, which I believe explains the single currency's rally (note that the dollar didn't really fall so much against other currencies...

ABRAK75

There's currently a potential negative divergence that is appearing on the 30 minute chart, and this seems like the correct timing for an attempt at that short position I talked about yesterday. The stop-loss should be placed just above $1160. If in the next 3 hours prices rally sharply, this will invalidate the divergence and will merit cutting losses without too...

ABRAK75

Following last month's sharp fall in gold prices, the market has entered a bullish corrective phase and is rising back up to a previous support level at $1,147 that was tested on 8 July. There is currently a trend line resistance at around $1,151-53 which could provide for a decent short opportunity pretty soon. A stop above $1,165 (to be determined according to...

ABRAK75

The German DAX index is hitting fresh 6-month lows this morning, but we may see prices start to rebound if 11,400 holds in the next couple of days. There is a channel support at around 11,420 plus the January 27th low at 10,550 to be watched closely today and tomorrow. Given the longer-term uptrend and significant rally at the start of the year, I'm inclined to...

ABRAK75

The dollar is holding well so far this week thanks to the solid US employment data published Friday on top of the Chinese yuan devaluation today. While we see the greenback rallying against Asian FX and commodity currencies right now, the euro is holding. I still anticipate renewed buying pressure on the dollar over the medium term and am interested in a short...

ABRAK75

The dollar is holding well so far this week thanks to the solid US employment data published Friday on top of the Chinese yuan devaluation today. While we see the greenback rallying against Asian FX and commodity currencies right now, the euro is holding. I still anticipate renewed buying pressure on the dollar over the medium term and am interested in a short...

ABRAK75

There's currently a clear negative divergence on USD/CAD, which gives me the impression that the CAD will start rebounding (already has against the GBP). EUR/CAD might be a good short candidate below 1.43 while USD/CAD could very well fall back below 1.29 with this divergence. Please see my related idea on EUR/CAD for a possible CAD long strategy.

ABRAK75

This is something that I just spotted that merits a bit of attention today. The CAD has of course been weak given the recent rate cut by the Bank of Canada on top of the fall in oil prices. Meanwhile the euro is holding well with renewed capital inflows into Eurozone equities markets plus the Greek vote that just went through. Technicals don't necessarily point to...

ABRAK75

Yesterday I published a bullish trading idea on the Dow Jones-FXCM US Dollar Index given that it was testing an uptrend support. After bouncing a bit in the afternoon (around 30 points), prices are now breaking the trend line. This is an indication that it's best to cut dollar longs just to be safe. EUR/USD might move back up above $1.10 at this point.

ABRAK75

Two weeks ago, I suggested that the kiwi dollar could stop falling (after 12 consecutive weeks of declines against the US dollar) as a long term support at $0.65 was being tested. Prices are back up to $0.6515 just before the RBNZ rate statement later today. The consensus expects another 25 bp cut in the main refinancing rate to 3.00%. The latest cut took the...

ABRAK75

Last week, I wrote that I expected the Dow Jones-FXCM US Dollar Index to break a resistance level at 12,040 points. The failed break at the beginning of the week was followed by a 1% drop yesterday, that cannot be explained by hard fundamentals. I think it had to do more with repositioning by traders who had bought the greenback too late on Friday/Monday (i.e....

ABRAK75

I find it quite risky to buy precious metals right now, but silver is currently testing a support that gave way to a technical bounce at the beginning of the year (see related idea below). All I can say at this point is that silver may hold better than gold, which suggests that buying it may provide a hedge for anyone who is already short on in the gold market. At...

ABRAK75

I remain firmly bearish on the euro as I anticipate continued buying on the US dollar despite Yellen's hinting toward a hold in raising rates in September this week (please read : ). If consumer price data supports the dollar this afternoon, I think the euro may break the $1.08 level at the beginning of next week. Officially, I see the technical support at...

ABRAK75

The dollar has gradually been rising over the past 4 weeks, but there hasn't yet been any major headlines on the strength of the buck. Despite Yellen's hinting toward a hold on raising rates in September, the dollar is still gaining ground, which makes me think that the Dow Jones-FXCM US Dollar index may break above its June highs pretty soon. There's a clear...

ABRAK75

One more hour to go before the day's close on FXCM's FX server. The euro is just below $1.10 right now, which means that we're breaking Friday's lows. I identified a resistance level at $1.12 this morning (we were at $1.1150 at the time of publishing the idea), and seeing the daily candlestick now, I have a tendency of thinking that we won't be seeing $1.12...

ABRAK75

Interesting chart, please see the related idea below.

ABRAK75

I'm skeptical of the reasoning that a Greek agreement will pave the way for a euro rally this morning. $1.12 might be a resistance below which the general downtrend resumes.