ABRAK75

ABRAK75

Gold prices broke through a long-term bearish trendline on Friday, and we saw a positive reaction in the market when this new support was tested on Monday. With the break above $1220, we may see gold rally through its December highs ($1237), which would complete a head and shoulders pattern that took form between September and December. As it stands, gold reached...

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A long-term look at the AUDJPY cross allows us to see a clear trendline resistance at the 101.70 level. Now that the market has fallen 400 pips after coming close to its 2013 highs in November, a long term double top seems possible. In a similar idea, I suggested a USDJPY reversal for the beginning of 2015, which I also see with the AUDJPY cross now.

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The TLT/SPX ratio has been a useful tool to anticipate market crashes in the past, and I'm seeing several signs suggesting a renewed risk-off period. This ratio broke a 28-month-long trendline in October after having hit its 2007 lows back in January. The 200-DMA provided support in November, leading up to the most recent market correction two weeks ago. The...

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I've seen a lot of people looking at oil's long-term trendline for a speculative buy opportunity this past couple of weeks. While oil prices should remain relatively low as markets work to establish a demand-supply equilibrium in 2015, I agree with the hypothesis of at least a technical bounce once WTI and Brent prices test their trendlines (around $47 for WTI and...

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USDJPY tested a long term trendline at 121 earlier this month, and it seems likely that the pair will remain below this level up to the end of the year. Like in January 2014, I wouldn't be surprised to see stocks correct with a yen bounce to start 2015.

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The GBPCAD cross looks like it's been consolidating with a flag-like movement since the start of 2014, and this may lead to an eventual bullish leg to fresh multi-annual highs in 2015. Fundamentally, I like being short the Loonie dollar as crude oil's plunge this year should lead to disinflationary pressures in Canada with a possibility of seeing the Bank of...

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The MSCI All Country World Index completed a wedge formation in September, and this week's sell off comes in after a pullback towards the wedge support. It seems likely that the market will fall back to the October lows, in which case a break lower would become increasingly probable at the start of 2015.

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This is a similar chart to that published by Technician (see related idea below) that shows a clear divergence between stock markets and bond markets. I realize after making this chart that I had identified several bearish signals in bond markets at the start of the year, and I thought that we would thereby see a stock market correction in 2014. Stocks are the...

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The platinum/silver ratio indicates right now that silver will likely be the best precious metal to buy at the start of 2015 if all metals start rallying like in January 2014. Please see my previous ideas on silver and on the silver/gold ratio to see why this metal in particular has caught my eye lately. If you're bullish on precious metals right now, give...

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***Please note that this chart is of the Silver/Gold ratio, not the Gold/Silver ratio as is indicated on the chart. Apologies for any confusion. The Silver/Gold ratio hit a very familiar zone that is worth taking a note of before the start of 2015. While gold is still above this year's opening price (it did briefly fall below in November), silver has gotten...

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The SPX/Gold ratio is currently holding below the 23.6% Fibonacci level of the period during which gold outperformed US stock markets (July 1999-September 2011). While this ratio won't tell us the direction of one market by itself, it can help identify potential inflection points. One only has to look at what markets did in January 2014 to see the arbitrage...

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Given the dramatic short squeeze at the beginning of the month, price action suggests that silver might be set to rally further as 2014 comes to a close. Most silver traders have already taken note of the long term trend line that seems to have been hit on the 1st. I had initially identified this trend line as being around the $13.50 level (this week's low was at...

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The dramatic silver rally we saw at the start of the week was likely thanks to a short squeeze as there was really no reason to see such heavy selling pressures in Asia on Monday morning. The market set it's week's lows at a long term bullish trend line extending from 2003. I had initially thought that this trend line was somewhere around the $13.50 level. I'm...

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I've been watching platinum closely for the past month and a half as I discovered a mean-reversion pattern that has repeated itself several times since 2011. Using a 200-Day Disparity Index, which measures how far current price is from the 200-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA200), you can clearly see that platinum tends to set cyclical lows when it is around...

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EURUSD closed about 55 pips above its monthly MA200 this week, and I while I'm not really looking to buy the euro, it's worth noting the importance of the $1.2230 level in December. The June 2010 and July 2012 lows were both set when the market tested the monthly MA200, which is why I am particularly interested in the $1.2230 level right now. Needless to say, the...

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A long-term analysis of the DAX / Gold ratio shows a likely continuation of the rally in European stock markets and/or fall in gold prices in the coming months if this ratio breaks its multi-year trendline resistance (red line). Since the beginning of 2014, this ratio has been printing a series of lower highs ans lower lows, but we may see a new leg higher next...