Adam-Cox

Adam-Cox

I though I would write a simple Guidance Not on shorting etc., - In general, sell rallies (refer below for guidance) - use candle wicks at rejection points. - wicks + inside bar - a good limit grid point to sell. - trade limit order book exhaustion - not mid range unless news etc., determines otherwise. - be careful of short covering forces and bargain...

Adam-Cox

Let's review BTC after all the hype of the current pullback. Discussion It's been amusing reading analysis from so-called experts on Reuters and Yahoo finance. The Youtube videos by 'gurus' are not funny, they are just plain sad! So let's look at some of the arguments from the VSPs (very serious people): 1) the so-called 'crash' was caused by Hash Rate ...

Adam-Cox

BTC grinding towards the previously noted price target of $53-$54 mark. That coincides with closing price levels and swing traders' cost basis. SOPR is net positive with no material profit taking indicated by Realised Profit & Loss Indicator. BTC price risk in-part based on future spreads indicates a possible pullback - but that would be anticipated as price...

Adam-Cox

LTC break above cost basis - most traders still HODL'ing with no material realised gains (profit taking) to note to date. SOPR indicates a few pundits chucked in the towel early (refer : arrow) , but LTC is now a net long market. My strategy Currently, trading long the SOPR breaks and pull backs above the Cost Basis line (market net profit line). Conditions...

Adam-Cox

I have set-out my logic in prior posts of how I am exiting the SP500 market from prior longs bought more than 18 months ago - by selling into rallies. If an infrastructure deal goes ahead and debt ceiling issues are dealt to successfully, I will reconsider my current stance. However, I am happy to scalp particularly from needless / senseless market...

Adam-Cox

Quick note - mostly motivated by 'dream' sellers on Reddit. I see posts mentioning $50 and then $65 price targets. Well, to get to $50 from the current price is simply a matter of 'noise'. If the crypto is moving around 1-5% daily on average, you going to hit a round number of $50 from this level with daily volatility alone. Personally, I think we have a more...

Adam-Cox

LTCUSD has ground-up to cost basis seeing the market on average now breaking-even. The cost basis line being a natural price target for those buying at the lows i.e. naïve structure trades. Minor profit taking has now taken place = with realised PnL (refer to Histogram). Herein lies the issue - the market on average is at breakeven, but no new capital has...

Adam-Cox

LTCUSD bounces-off Cost Basis as I write this update from my mobile phone. The market on average is going into break-even I don't see unusual breakeven trading, so Hodl'ing has paid-off for many.But keep an eye on tbe extent of pullbacks. Like my other posts on BTC and Doge...the same logic applies - so refer to those articles. #Adam-Cox

Adam-Cox

BTC bounced off the Cost Basis Lines and now the market on average is in profit or nearing so. I don't see unusual profit taking activity from the market (Realised Profit Indicator) nor do I see specific anti-long market risk signals (BTC Price Risk Indicator). I do expect to see a pullback, and a bit of re-test - working on the premise that most of the market...

Adam-Cox

Whilst one of my trading systems (as displayed) doesn't yet display Exit-Long signals, I have been pre-empting some expected volatility which I perceive can arise due to what can be an lengthy infrastructure Bill process along with the Debt Ceiling fiasco. I detailed this in an earlier post. Up to this point I have been happy to ignore exit signals based on...

Adam-Cox

If you you refer back to my posts on crypto you know I have set-out a consistent approach to trading these markets - LTC is no exception. LTC is still a unique case however, with a majority of the market being under water on their equity, Hodl'ing has dominated this market. Hence, I refer back to the percentage of Realised Gains / Losses (the lower indicator) to...

Adam-Cox

A very similar picture to what I said about BTC previously - price came back, re-tested the lower cost basis line and rallied both on new capital drawn back into the market and due to the effects the effects of 'Hold'ing'. Of course with DOGE there is the dilution factor which, a bit like trying to overcome the effects of gravity, the high level of constant...

Adam-Cox

My prior posts on BTC presented the concept that if BTC bounced-off the lower cost basis line (illustrated was the swing trader and short term traders costs basis), we would want to be long and take advantage of the accumulation driven by 1) Hodlers not selling and 2) new capital coming into the market (with lower break even points.) The middle cost basis line...

Adam-Cox

LTC is still an unique case. Overall the market as a whole is on average underwater. Whilst a small fraction of this market has taken losses, many are still Hod'lers. I am keeping an eye on this as I would consider long trades if support is found after a rally above the current cost basis. This is a conservative approach but does mean the market would be behind...

Adam-Cox

As in the case of BTC we see an initial bounce-off the lower cost basis line and no unusal breakeven trading...It appears to me that the 'active' part of this market are very much 'hodlers' and to me this bodes well for a potential rally to the upper cost basis line. If on the hand, I saw a lot of breakeven trading and new shorts enter the market then I would be...

Adam-Cox

BTC found support on the lower cost basis level, and thenrallied to the upper line. It appears to me that substantial profit taking has not taken place (yet) nor has breakeven trading. In other words the market has seen some real "Hodl'ing", which bodes well either to stymie any downside panic attacks and also to aid the prospencity of further rallies. So I...

Adam-Cox

Taper tantrum..market like zombies sells-off..trade a short "spec'y"...write some premium or buy on a pull back...just looking at potential levels on this post. Nothing complicated :) #taper

Adam-Cox

Lower cost basis line being tested and at the moment respected! No great churn or capital replacement evidenced (refer to the lower oscillator) This means a couple of things: - the 'crowd' is not yet chucked-in the towel and given up on Doge - cost basis for these traders is at or around breakeven / underwater (about of Doge's 10% capitalisation) - there...