Adam-Cox

Adam-Cox

On average, the Cost Basis for DOGE Coin is less than $0.02. Because, no more than around 10% of DOGE capitalisation has been actively traded, downside can be as low as $0.02 - with very little resistance straight down to the 'floor' The tell-tale sign of a break is when existing long traders (at their current break-even point or currently experiencing losses...

Adam-Cox

Update My last update on DOGE Coin was that I could long so long as support came into the market - and the demarcation point for this support would the lower cost basis line as indicated on the chart. I also suggested that Doge's price would 'float' down to this lower level as I did not see spikes in realised losses. This price decline would be primarily...

Adam-Cox

I am looking at potential short positions on OIL related stocks as indicated by this example. Observation Phillips 66 has gone into a bearish mode with swing traders (around 30% of the market) losing on net longs positions with the wider market on average now being at break even. Break-even price levels can mean either 1) important support areas, 2) break...

Adam-Cox

Commitment of Traders (COT) shows growing signs of commercial being less short than the last 3 months which marks a possible bullish sentiment potentially coming into this market. Discussion There are three core issues when looking at gold, in my opinion: 1) Basel III, has implications for trading paper gold - the majority of traded gold to date and its effects...

Adam-Cox

BTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report stills shows signs of dealer negativity and declining retail sentiment. Obviously, this can all change on a dime. I don't plan trades on COT alone. However, what COT is good for is understand where market participants stand and what 'knock-on' effects may eventuate when market's reverse or when trend continuation occurs....

Adam-Cox

SP500 COT analysis illustrates the current negativity towards the current SP500 level. Understanding the indicator The Histogram illustrates the Net Dealer Position. Dealers have inventory replenishment requirements. If other market makers are sellers - they are buyers and visa versa. The Line shows small speculators. Their goal is 'time' the market to make...

Adam-Cox

TSLA is quite a different story to the US Broad market and in fact many US blue chip equities. The average cost basis indicates how many investors have in fact have bought late in the market - with average entry price not too different than that of the current price levels. Lots of fresh capital and expectation - but this also means a lot of potentially...

Adam-Cox

I have discussed a number of times of current position of continuing being long in the US SP500 index. One aspect of my analysis is fundamental; another aspect is reviewing the market's on-average cost basis and realized PnL. What is evident from this picture is the 'buffer' or open unrealised gains currently sitting in the market. (Contrast this with TSLA -...

Adam-Cox

LTCUSD still grinding up, albeit slowly - but it is one of the only main cryptos which is in net overall loss on average. This analysis illustrates how investors have been holding positions which on average have been under water. Whilst this is a positive sign because it infers that investors have higher price expectations in the future i.e. they haven't...

Adam-Cox

Basel III has not lead to substantial vol in gold. Will the paper market dry-up? In fact, given the current bull run I would either be short for a spec trade down to the kneck line (drawn on closing prices) , check-out the 1,700 level on the futures for a possible trend continuation. What we might find is that with paper gold drying-up market liquidity dries...

Adam-Cox

Looks like Doge is coming back down to retest lows. Now that may be obvious..but meandering down on a lack of buying pressure is quite different than being sold down on increased volumes. The former appears more evident with no acceleration of realised gains or losses. As I said previously, if support is found or the fabulous "tweet machine" kicks-in, I will be long.

Adam-Cox

LTCUSD currently sitting under average cost basis for this market. Contrast this BTC and Doge where substantial volumes have been mined/transacted at much lower prices and earlier on in the history of the coin. If a coin like Doge or BTC is substantially over the market's cost basis it means that volatility in many cases only affects a small portion of the...

Adam-Cox

Retail sector driven by GDP (fiscally supported) and consumer spending support = a "short" on the inverse situations. So when the fat lady stops singing...you know what buttons to push 😂😂

Adam-Cox

Answer is simple: 1) re-action trade. Vix backwardates...its cover and net short. Low risk anyway you cut it. If i am wrong, buy at lower prices..if I am right then its another fabulous opportunity 🤣🤣 ->break trade. 2) strategic fundamental trade. No infrastructure spend, fiscal stimulus gets cut further...then economy sutters and GDP implodes...its a no brainer...

Adam-Cox

I am looking at potential longs as I see support come in on this slow grind up. Short term traders have taken profits whereas abput 1% of market cap is in draw down. A great deal of traders are still in profit. My hypoythesis is support may remain intact..which can be contrasted to LTC.

Adam-Cox

I am looking support, that is, new money at the current cost point to flow back into Doge. I am going start looking at that 0.38 level (top line) if I see market realising gains at the top line (short term trader's cost basis)

Adam-Cox

I am waiting for peak market realised loss to 'churn out' around breakeven cost basis before going back long into LTC.

Adam-Cox

Like Doge, I am wanting BTC to successfully retest swing trader's cost basis before being Long this market.