AspenTrading

AspenTrading

1.0384 (GREEN) is proving tough for EUR/USD to clear but also providing traders an opportunity for shorts. Remember, 'resistance is resistance' until proven otherwise. If prices get downside momentum, 1.0266 (RED) is the target.

AspenTrading Updated 

Opinions aside about ARKK, despite being a toxic mess (sorry, I could not avoid an opinion), the only thing that matters is 39.79 (RED) . Prices have failed to get back above it convincingly, and unless they do, gravity will take hold. Neutral for now, awaiting what the market decides to do, but our edge is knowing the price level from which to decide.

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$MSTR Price action tells the story with no room for bias or subjectivity. And yes, the levels on the chart have been there for weeks; no real mystery. The #FTX debacle was merely the catalyst. The fact that prices went from the upper RED level at ~287 and cut right through the lower RED level at 186 tells you a lot. There is likely a lot more damage to come.

AspenTrading

The implosion of crypto markets impacts all other non-sensical trading and investment ideas. Not to say that some business models are faulty, but many are, shall we say, trading at rather inflated levels. RIVN is a case in point. It found a lifeline in early October when 30.72 (RED) provided a nice bounce, but after today, we see that it is now a distant memory....

AspenTrading Updated 

GAME PLAN FOR NOVEMBER 8, 2022: GENERAL NOTES: No change from yesterday in terms of how to approach his market: In Sunday’s brief look ahead for the week, I noticed that the intra-day volatility in the S&P’s is making it challenging for swing trading. Unless of course, you have very wide stops. But that misses the point. In a rangebound market that began in...

AspenTrading

One of the challenges many traders face is buying into the idea that something has moved too far for them to get on board. Often viewed as 'overbought' or 'oversold.' I don't buy that idea. Oscillators are nothing more than a derivative of price and offer no insight. Rather, when a market moves out of an area of congestion and takes out key levels, it provides...

AspenTrading

The folks at the TD Ameritrade Network asked me to review a few stocks popular with their viewers. Here is one that looks great: NCLH A move and hold above 17.24 (ORANGE) points to a run higher to 23.32 (PURPLE).

AspenTrading

It's pretty basic: 3791 (ORANGE) and 3744 (RED) will be the two levels providing the catalyst to a sustained move up or down, respectively. In between these levels, there are, and have been solid intra-day trades, but it has been volatile.

AspenTrading Updated 

Big miss on earnings...but that's all open to interpretation and factors beyond most people's insight and workflows. What is clear is that key price levels gave way and now point to 106.26 (RED)

AspenTrading

When two S/R's, each of higher magnitude, get taken out in one day, it makes a statement. Assuming we close above 32.83 (ORANGE), the bulls are set on 38.45 (RED). S/R's in action.

AspenTrading Updated 

I'm not advocating shorting in front of the weak yen freight train. But if you happen to be long, you might consider lightening up if prices continue to stall at 108.60 (ORANGE). Aggressive types can entertain shorts with tight ~25-30 pip stops. If we see a break lower, the obvious attraction lower is 107.87 (GREEN) and 107.65 (PURPLE). Aspen S/R's in action.

AspenTrading Updated 

It's not been a year to bottom pick TLT. In fact, it's rarely a good idea to bottom pick. However, when a durable S/R Level holds and ideally is re-tested, it creates a situation where buying a low makes sense. And with ones stops very clear, i.e. below 92.30 (GREEN), it's an asymmetric pay-off. A similar level is seen in 10-Year Notes.

AspenTrading

A big break above 90.07 today (RED) is a significant level in the S/R playbook. A close above 90.07 sets in motion a sustained move higher.

AspenTrading Updated 

Pretty simple, a break and hold below ~202.59 (GREEN) points right to 186 (PURPLE).

AspenTrading

While prices have failed to gain momentum higher in recent attempts to stay above $12 (ORANGE), this time appears to be different. I'd be looking for prices to track higher towards 14.50 (RED). Aspen S/R's in action.

AspenTrading

The key levels intra-day and from a swing trading basis are clear: 3758 (GREEN) & 3730 (ORANGE). Until proven otherwise, I'm leaning towards re-establishing longs. The failure at 3800 early in the session was a good heads up to stand aside. right now, neither bulls or bears can offer a catalyst. Until I see internals and options volume leans bullish, I'm on the sidelines.

AspenTrading Updated 

The break below key support (ORANGE) 76.29 points to lower levels in the days ahead. This was a textbook example of a stock in a downtrend failing at resistance. It was a solid level to initiate shorts or even Short Call Spreads.

AspenTrading

If they can, the downside will get much more slippery. A cluster like that (GREEN, ORANGE & RED) is not common.