Auguraltrader

Auguraltrader

An interesting set of events just occurred in the NASDAQ futures. In early November, the NASDAQ (and most market indices) spiked in a bullish rally, only to find a resistance at about 12,000 in mid-November. It then retraced to test the support at 11,560. While it bounced off the support then, there was a momentary spike down to 11,528. This is the significant low...

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Noted that Coinbase COIN is in some sort of technical trouble. Based on downside projections, the downdraft is technically aligned and sound, with a target of 23.36, by mid-December. This is a 50% cut in stock price from last Friday's closing. An earlier breakdown of the triangle, and the more recent failure of the 2022 support last Friday suggest more downside...

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Crude weekly points to more downside. Breaking below 76, would be bad news and 67 would be the downside target at the end of the year. Technical indicator, MACD crossed down in bearish territory, and the VolDiv indicator turned red as it heads to the zeroline. Very dangerous when it does this... Expect more downside to the last low at 76. Critical support level there.

Auguraltrader

Previously posted about the BTCUSD long range screen. On Oct 30, posted: " At the the current time, the excitement of the BTCUSD (and other alt coins) surge in the recent week may or may not be the end of the bear market. But according to this technical model, it appears that it is not quite ready or ripe for the start of a bull run ; and by projection, and...

Auguraltrader

A lot is happening in all markets and this adds to volatility. Looking technically at ETH, it is obvious that there is more downside, having just clocked a low that broke down the LH/LL pattern (blue lines) support (yellow line). It had recently broke out of a range (grey box) and broke back in to fall out on the underside, happened to break down the second time...

Auguraltrader

Was in a number of private discussions over this week, and noted that there appears to be some dynamics in motion currently. Quick note that the Singapore 6th COVID wave is pretty turned over, according to the data provided publicly. It was a smaller wave compared to previously, as expected. However, the neighbouring Indonesia is currently in the midst of a wave...

Auguraltrader

As heads up yesterday, the TLT and VIX were telling… and the SPY buckled slightly (-2%) for the day. Over the next two days, breaking down below 370 (red support line) and in doing so trigger a TD Flip to start a new TD Sequential should see the SPY find its way close to 350 (or lower). MACD is supporting this and the VolDiv had already been warning a long time ago…

Auguraltrader

Previously, mentioned about how TLT, UST10Y and SPY have a special relationship where the former two leads the latter. And overlaying the SPY on the TLT daily chart, there is a warning given… That TLT is heading down given that it failed a resistance level at 98, and more recently at 95. Support is at 93, and failing this brings TLT near its recent low. The...

Auguraltrader

Despite the recent bear rally and the optimism that has built up, the VIX has been giving heads up that we broke seasonal cycle and is likely to be gearing up for another bout of volatility. Using the daily VIX chart and the TD Sequential Setups, it can be see that the major VIX trend is still Bullish. The recent drop in volatility appears to be a retracement,...

Auguraltrader

So, October ended with Halloween, and its time to update the outlook for the longer term on the SPY Monthly chart. October underwhelmed September, but it still closed on a bullish candle nontheless. So might we be expecting a follow through bounce? I think the jury is still out... and a lot pivots on what action is taken by the FOMC, as well as its...

Auguraltrader

Previous post was about BTCUSD being in a tight range, with very unusually low volatility. With comparison to previous low volume and low volatility periods, it typically spiked down, but this time BTCUSD spiked up instead. So, is this the end of the bear market and it is ready for rock and roll rally up to record six-figures? Taking the long term view, in...

Auguraltrader Updated 

Over the weekend, a lot of synchrony and less optimistic outlook was posted. So, here we take the opposing view and look for when the Hang Seng Index might bounce off what it finds as a bottom. From the weekly chart, it is very clear that the HSI has had two consecutive hard years, since 2021. An early January rally fizzled out and downdrafts take over for the...

Auguraltrader

Last week's SPY action was again interesting, in another new way. But before getting into the details, what is not shown here is the Monthly SPY chart, and in that chart, October is the Perfected TD Sequential 9th candle of the Buy Setup. This suggests that within the next three months, a TD Flip (in the form of a shorter term uptrend) and Sequential is an...

Auguraltrader

A quick look at the daily BTCUSD shows an interesting and ominous message… that BTCUSD its current low volatility state, is likely to break out or breakdown hard, probably the latter; as the technical indicators MACD & Volume Divergence suggests. BTCUSD finds itself in a triangle and had recently spent most of its time in the upper half of the triangle...

Auguraltrader

Yesterday’s SPY performance was significant, notably about closing and reopening the gaps in recent days. Here we take a look at the significance of these gap closures and an accompanying set of technical indicators which include MACD, Volume Divergence and TD Sequential. Using the 4H chart, the pink box shows the gap down and the gray and/or white box shows the...

Auguraltrader

Just a quick note that the recent NASDAQ (bear) rally appears to have run its course; on the 1H chart, it had a series of Lower Highs and Lower Lows (white lines), and appears to have completed the trend change pattern by breaching the support from the first Lower Low (red line). Given this pattern completion, a typical breakdown of the critical support would see...

Auguraltrader Updated 

The Singapore bourse STI ETF, EWS, has a very ominous outlook for the next couple of months into the end of 2022. Hyperinflation could be the current trending killer, but seems like more is likely to add on. Not sure what shoe will drop, but the charts tell it as it is... April and May ended badly entering into a range that saw May break down of that range...

Auguraltrader

The NASDAQ futures are ominous... for more downside movement, given that the first projected downside target has been hit, and exceeded. The NASDAQ weekly chart is bearish looking, with technical indicators supporting that view. Still aiming for <10K (9600). The daily chart has slightly better technicals on the MACD, but it is probably an artefact of the...