Auguraltrader

Auguraltrader

Bitcoin is doing some strange things of late. Many have spoken about it, and here is my technical take... The last couple of weeks saw BTCUSD taper off volatility significantly. the the last three weeks, an indication from the price action is that the weekly charts contain a lot of upper tails on low volatility candles. So, simply, taking the suggestion that...

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The gold miners ETF, GDX, just points to a very very rough time. With the interest rates escalating rapidly, the USD rising swiftly, the equity markets weakening, and gold prices crumbling... it is a perfect storm for GDX thrashing. The weekly chart had a tombstone doji the previous week as it failed the Hull EHMA, and the past week confirmed the trend reversal...

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After two sets of recent failures (Gold daily chart, right panel), and a lower high to boot... We are looking for a lower low, currently projected to be about 1550. Gold is not going to regain its shine for a while. At the earliest, if possible, end of 2022. Short, Sharp, Simple... as clear as the lustre is lost, Gold down.

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Months ago, SOXL came into the radar, and as it broke out, it also failed along with the rest of the markets. There were many clear opportunities on both sides. SOXL has more than halved its value since its last high. Is it over extended to the downside - yet? Short of the lack of a higher low, and being way ahead of the curve, SOXL appears to be having a bullish...

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A few simple observations that tell of Crude falling over, despite a previous week of strong bullish price movement from OPEC cuts announcements. Weekly chart had crude price break above the 55EMA strongly the previous week with a marubozu like candlestick. However, not only did it failed resistance at 94 (dark green line); it broke back down in failure of the...

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UP... within the next three weeks. First, it has completed the Cup & Handle pattern, a very reliable pattern. Now on the breakout and the projection is mapped (dotted aroow line). Second, technical indicators of the MACD are bullish, and continue to support an uptrend. There is no bearish divergence observed. Third, the other set of technical indicators for...

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Another exciting week on the SPY! These type of weeks, is where and how people get burnt, especially IF they are not trading on lower time frames. The range of the higher time frames are in excess of 2.5% per day, and 3 out of 5 days in the week had such volatility in different directions! By the way, these volatility periods tend to happen when the VIX is above...

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The week has been nothing short of exciting and boring at the same time. See below... On the left panel, the SPY weekly chart shows a likely continuation of the downtrend. Outstanding is the week's candle wick, not the candle body itself. As highlighted by the red ellipse, the week's candle closed slightly positive, but left a really long upper tail to indicate...

Auguraltrader Updated 

Similar to the SPY analysis, the NASDAQ is actually slightly more bearish looking... The daily NQ1! chart has bearish indicators all around, and already is in the immediate downside target range, albeit earlier than projected. The recently broken supports now become resistances. The weekly chart appears even more bearish with the June lows appearing to be easily...

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I read somewhere recently about two co-relationships between bond prices/yields and the SPY. First was about TLT - where TLT goes, the market (SPY) follows it was said. Second, was about the UST10Y (US Treasury 10 Year Yields) having to abate its bull run before the SPY cools its bearish rout. So, I took the opportunity to put these thoughts together visually...

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I do not know the robustness of the data collected, as it differs greatly in different places. But with just a quick comparison: Singapore relaxed mask measures on 29 August, and from early September, there was already an uptick and the MACD histograms pointed out to late September crossover. Indeed, on 30 September, CNA reported a 40% week on week increase in...

Auguraltrader Updated 

I must attribute this post to my brother who texted me earlier this week asking for my opinion of where Gold is going. I did respond with a "Down" but I felt that I should also validate it properly. And lo and behold, I noticed a major pattern formation, that would break the previous trend/pattern. Gold appears to be on a VERY CRITICAL LAST DAY of the month. It...

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Further yesterday's pre--market post, The SPY closed the week and month in a rather decisive fashion - at the low. The weekly chart (left panel) shows the SPY follow through the downward momentum, after breaking down the HULL EHMA and failing the 55EMA. The close at the week's low, pretty much, also set a new lower low close, having gone through the June low...

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Just a quick pre-weekend analysis and update about the SPY. Previously, it looked like the SPY was about to do a technial bounce, but the week panned out to be more fear overwhelming than anything else. The MACD is not divergent, so any bounce can be expected to be shallow; just like Wednesday's bounce, and not following through the next day. It appears a little...

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No good news at all as the HSI drove off the cliff... The weekly chart shows that two weeks ago, the support was broken, and all technical indicators are bearish. The Fibonacci projections put the downside target at 14,600. A very substantial downside burn. Only green shoot observed is a possible bullish divergence forming... The daily chart shows the...

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Crude oil is breaking down, and is doign that really fast as well. Unfortunately, this is not expected to abate inflation, negligibly if at all. Part of this slide down comes from a surging USD, and the other half is the anticipation of a recession due to the spiking interest rates. The Crude futures weekly chart is all bearish, candlesticks, indicators, etc. The...

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Just to recap that after flipping into a (bear) rally, a back flip pushed the SPY further down from 13 September. The past week was absolutely stunning... from the SPY daily chart, the week started with a nice rebound, post-gap-down from the previous Friday. Then once the FOMC made their announcement, the SPY just gave way to lower lows (as earlier expected from...

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The Bear case scenario described previous just got another validation. Post rate hike reaction tells of a higher probability to revisiting the last low. A strongly bearish candlestick accentuates the bear case. The thing here is that reaching the downside target of 325 is clearly within reach. Whichever way it takes: either closing the week on a technical...