Auguraltrader

Auguraltrader

Just over 6 months ago, OXY was flagged to technically not do the expected rally as it broke down of the H&S shoulder. Many had bought in following the reported Berkshire's purchases of OXY , BUT technicals was telling of another type of scenario. Watching the breakdown was rather painful as it stretched over the last 6 months, with a recovery attempt that failed...

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As marked, it has 4 candles after closing above the resistance and is on a very bullish breakout. Thing is, the indexes just moved into a resistance zone. And there is a potential confluent resistance point just above. Overall, bullish until meeting resistance, then we should have a pull back of some sort...

Auguraltrader

USDJPY is continuing to be bullish, at least in the weekly chart, with MACD and VolDiv supporting in bullish alignment. 141.6 is the expected resistance, thereafter, 134 a good support.

Auguraltrader

Just a quick note that as Biden signed the raise of the US debt ceiling, the USD is going to be bullish for a bit, and then meet the upper range resistance, and then lose it to get back to range support. Projection Targets marked.

Auguraltrader

As expected previously, the Singapore STI (EWS) hit the first target range. It appears to have bounced off a bit in the short week (Friday is a Public Holiday, being Vesak Day). However, the technical indicators accentuate that there is more downside to come... Breaking down below the support to form a lower low is confirmation for the lower target to be the next...

Auguraltrader

Observable for weeks now, and recently, the divergence is much more pronounced. What I am referring to are that the equity markets appear to be more and more bullish, breaking out of trendlines; while the leading indicators (TIP, TLT, JNK and inversely VXX) show an imminent deterioration, about to breakdown of trendlines. The combined US equity markets and...

Auguraltrader

As mentioned in previous heads up over the last weeks, it had finally happened (as expected) that the SG10Y GB yield rates break out of trend line resistance. And from previous occurrences, this is a very reliable inverse leading indicator of the SPY (and other related equity indexes); meaning that the SPY should be tanking downwards within the next week or...

Auguraltrader

Just want to show an anomaly observed here... sort of a tip off on what is most likely to happen. You see, I read Russell Napier's Anatomy of the Bear back in 2009 (not easy to get it as it is out of print!), and he describes TIP as one of the/a leading indicator ahead of the equity market. Superimposed on the TIP daily chart is the SPY (blue line), NASDAQ (cyan...

Auguraltrader

Multiple signals all aligned to much more downside in the Singapore STI... 1. A lower high. Watch for the lower low incoming! 2. Break out and then break back into the consolidation range. This is the second time, and expect an extrusion through the bottom of the range. 3. MACD lower high, and crossed down. Bearish oops, look from crossing down into bear...

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Conditions appear to be shifting really quickly... just a few days ago, it appeared that the SG10Y Govt Bond was going to break a low and go further down, sending the correlated S&P500 (and other indexes rallying up. BUT, it brooke down and recovered very quickly. NOW, it appears to be ready to break UP and out of the downtrend line. This has happened before,...

Auguraltrader

IF you are getting a little frustrated, I am too... something is building up and meanwhile there is a lot of conflicting signals. The week passed, and it appears to suggest the opposite now... a breakdown is more likely... 60/40 in favour of a breakdown, if I may quantify. Set up the Breakout and Breakdown levels, and waiting for some real...

Auguraltrader

Oh oh... the optimism, much as we want it given, does not appear to be. Having bounced off the middle of the consolidation zone, a surge to the upper range resulted in a weak follow through with a lower high, and a following bearish (patterned) candlestick. The technical indicatiors are trickling downwards, and one wonders if it is going to uptick... A bearish...

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Overlayed the TIP a chart with SPY (blue line). Quite clear that TIP (amongst JNK/HYG and even copper) precedes the index. Given all previous analyses and outlook, what we would like to see is that TIP break out and above its trend line resistance, as does its VolDiv. When this happens, can expect a bullish advancement. MACD has not yet turned to crossover, but...

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Nice long tail on the weekly chart, after a lower low. Technical indicators MACD and VolDiv appear bearish but this is suspiciously like a hidden dragon. Taken altogether, the first resistance is 76, and once close above 80 is firmed bullish. The lower low suggests more downside, but the length of that tail is telling a very bullish story for the next couple of...

Auguraltrader

Time to review this weekly chart which appears to gain even more importance in giving the insights... Noted that the SG10Y Govt Bond Yields continued to drop, and broke down a support to close at a 9 month low. Also note that since tracking and projecting (the previous dotted green arrow), the path of the SPY (blue line) was on point and closed higher to the...

Auguraltrader

The Combined US indexes chart ended the week with a bearish candlestick that had a little bullish indication with a longer tail and closing above the support line (aka Fake Out Line #2). This is slightly bullish and represents a chance for the earlier projected target of 668 to be achieved in the coming week or two. Yes, technical indicators appear to suggest...

Auguraltrader

The week ended a little confused, post NFP and other announcements. The only slight clarity here is that over the next week (or few weeks), we should see the USD dropping a bit more, breaking down both support lines, for a few days. IF "lucky", the USD futures should reach target at 99, even for a day or two. Now, this comes with a bit of a stretch with...

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The USD Futures Daily chart is already pointing that way... Once it breaks the yellow support line, it will look for 99. MACD slowing its ascent, while VolDiv is crossing down itself and below zero line. TD Setup is bearish for the USD. Bearish outlook overall.