Auguraltrader

Auguraltrader

while the NASDAQ leads and is super bullish, the S&P500 lags a little... So, took the combined chart and realized that previously had done some longer term analysis. You can see the marked target which was done the last time I looked at this in March 2023, before posting the related posts. Now, to play the sceptic... watch the fake out lines.

Auguraltrader

Ended the previous post on The Gold Odyssey (27 Dec 2022) with: So heads up, watch MAy 2023 for Gold prices to rally. Indeed the Down and then Uppish happened. Now, with the monthly chart, we find gold again at the border of the Constipation Box and people are getting all excited about it. I had questions about my views so I started to relook, a tad earlier...

Auguraltrader

Just an add on to the earlier analysis using the NASDAQ futures Daily chart. The weekly analysis says it all, and is in alignment. A truly bullish end to the Quarter, Month, Week and Day as described. Technical indicators are bullishly aligned. Weekly close and maintaining above 14,382 is a MUST for a longer term primary trend change to happen (above the green...

Auguraltrader Updated 

Previously posted about the candle that broke the market's back. It continued to test resistance for the next few days, and then broke down marginally, only to fake it and in one session reversed to close at a recent high. And this followed through to close the week in a massive three day streak of higher high closes ending with a bullish marubozu! The technical...

Auguraltrader

Previously, it was observed and expected that Crude was to bounce. Instead, Crude made a dive down and out of the boxed range. For a moment, took a second take on the analysis and decided that it might have been a bit before its time, since the longer term pointed to two trends; crude to go up and USD to go down. So, a chance came when USO triggered twice in the...

Auguraltrader

It appears to have been forever and finally XRP is showing some good sign of a real and proper breakout, targeting about 100% from current levels. This type of breakout is rare, and had been forming since July 2022. Technical indicators like the MACD and VolDiv are aligned for a break out above zero line. Trend line breakouts are observed, both long term and...

Auguraltrader

The NASDAQ (and other indices like the SPY/SPX) appears to have what I would call the decisive candlestick(s). For the NASDAQ, it appeared ready to break out and then it epic failed with a long tailed dark cloud cover type of candle. Speaks so much to say that it is heading down. IF it is as expected, then we should see a break down below the red box (outlined...

Auguraltrader Updated 

Been a while since crude futures were reviewed, and since the last post, crude categorically dropped... but it maintained a decent range between 70-80/82. The thing about crude now is that it appears to be coiling and is starting to show signs of a break out. Here is how I see it... the candlestick pattern (especially in the Daily chart, not shown here) is...

Auguraltrader

In a bearish (engulfing) week for the SPY, it appears that there is more downside to follow, which I would expect. Thing is, it appears that the SG 10Y G-Bonds broke down a supporting trendline, giving advance heads up that it would be a bullish rally in the weeks to come. Previous dotted arrow line is now sold red as the SPY (blue line) moved up for a last...

Auguraltrader Updated 

Quite clear... The EWS (tracking the STI, Straits Times Index of Singapore) pretty much topped as the MACD crossed down, with the VolDiv converging. Looking for a reversion to mean, 5-8% down. Watch the support level over the next week.

Auguraltrader Updated 

For most of 2022, the USD rallied bullishly and pulled back in the last quarter of 2022, falling as 2023 unfolded. Recent weeks saw some recovery in the USD but it failed the 23EMA. The devil in the details show that there is a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern , which bodes ominously for the USD in the following weeks. Noted that the close had to be below...

Auguraltrader Updated 

Someone gave me a heads up earlier this week that ChatGPT returned an answer to say that the market will tank on 15 March 2023. While I see it a little more different, I still keep an open mind as a lot can happen in a week (as we know in recent years). So first up, ChatGPT is an amazing quantum leap and it is one of those triggers that form a tangent in our...

Auguraltrader Updated 

Here is what I see and why I think the S&P500 is due for a good bounce... From the weekly chart, 1. The candlestick pattern is a rather bullish one. The candlestick itself from last week is beautifully bullish. 2. Last week's candle bounced off a very critical meeting point - 23EMA, trend line retest, a higher low, and a possible pivot of a triangle. 3. The...

Auguraltrader

Previously, posted about the head and shoulders (potential) breakdown of OXY, based on the technicals. Thereafter, there was a weak attempt to recover above the 23EMA, and it faked out. Yes, for a couple of weeks, it did look like a wrong analysis, wrong call, etc. BUT the point is not about being right nor wrong, but being able to read and read it well. For this...

Auguraltrader Updated 

As per heads up given earlier, the NASDAQ stalled and is pulling back. The weekly candle is similar to a bearish harami, but should wait to see if this week continues the down draft. Am expecting a bounce around the 23-week EMA. But if it slices through, then it would be a ominous turn of events. Technical indicators are somewhat bullish, hence expecting the bounce.

Auguraltrader Updated 

A rather uncanny comparison, but some correlation observed... the SG Government Bonds are the next level "risk-free" instrument (perhaps not to all, but it is clearly one of the more robust). Taking the SG10Y and overlay with SPY, some correlated trends are observed... The yellow lines are the trend lines for the SG10Y, and break outs or break downs are...

Auguraltrader

Remember this? Well broken out. MACD supported, and candlestick suggestive of continuation. Equity market pull back imminent. Those buying into SG bonds (a local hot topic these days), you know where this is going...

Auguraltrader

Not saying that the NASDAQ might not have a blow off top, but the lower high and the stalling and the candlestick patterns suggest that there is a break down incoming. MACD levelled off and is retracing already. Likely a reversion to mean retracement, and breaking down below 11,355 (the TDST) is bad news... Let's see