AynCzubas

AynCzubas

Since 2007, when the Shanghai "A" Shares Index hit its all-time high of 6391.98, a triangle correction developed until March 2014. At that point, the index rocketed upward to its second-highest level of 5423.248 in June of this year. It then rapidly crashed, correcting almost 78.6% of that rally so far. Last I checked, which was near the time of the recent peak...

AynCzubas

Based on the theory that the drop to 1833 was a 1st wave: 1. An ABC correction (apparently a running flat) then rose up to 1995.4, making a 50% retracement of the drop to 1833 from 2137. I label that as a 2nd wave. 2. Then from 1995.4 to 1901.6, there was a downward impulsive wave which appears to be an initial minor wave of a 3rd wave. 3. That was followed...

AynCzubas

These figures are taken from the chart. I have seen slightly different numbers elsewhere, but not significantly different. 1576.1 was the 2007 peak high. From 2137.1 (the 2015 all-time high) a .382 retracement of the rise from 672.9 (2009 low) to 2137.1 would be 1577.8 . .618 of the price distance from 1576.1 (2007 high) to 672.9 (2009 low) was 558.1776...

AynCzubas

The rally since the low of 1833, which I had originally counted as a 4th wave, has now risen high enough that it prompts me to consider that it might be a 2nd wave. A 4th wave typically only retraces .382-.5 of the preceding 3rd wave, but here this 3-wave corrective structure has retraced more than 50% of the entire decline from the origin of wave 1 and is...

AynCzubas

At the point of the two horizontal white lines, wave C equals wave A and wave 4 is a 50% retracement of wave 3. This may signify that wave 4 is complete. Trading is opened and gapping is already occurring in what looks like a very small impulsive sequence from 1972.9. My minimum estimated downside target for the 5th wave is 1760-1780.

AynCzubas

According to my count, S&P 500 is now within the 3rd wave of the initial impulse wave of the bear market which began on May 19th. The low point of 1833 reached on 8/24 seems to have been the 3rd of this 3rd wave. From that point until now, this consolidation is the 4th of the 3rd wave and is developing as a triangle. The triangle suggests a minimum downward thrust...

AynCzubas

The thrust measurement from the triangle which started November 2014 as well as what appears to be the final triangle within its own post-triangle thrust wave both point down to similar levels: 12.06-12.10. My sense was that the low for silver would be 13.75, but time will tell. The last push down appears ready to begin.

AynCzubas

A small triangle has been developing for the past 7 hours which appears to be targeting 1.107. If it hits that level, it may be game over for this rally for the next couple of days. I now suspect this rally has been a "d" wave up of a larger contracting bullish wave 4 triangle, which will be followed by an "e" wave down until a final apex is reached where an...

AynCzubas

All bets are off on this one, unless price comes back up above 1.0923 pretty quickly. Otherwise this may end up being a retrace down to 0.786 of the entire impulse thus far . Wave 4 Triangle, I believe it is, implies a thrust to 1.1108, just to above the larger triangle's upper trendline (see my recent postings on EUR/USD). Launch sequence is nearly complete ;-)

AynCzubas

Technically speaking, the triangle (as I had labeled it) has been invalidated by the drop to 1.0807 today. That was a breach of the 1.0818 low, which was the low of wave "a": waves "c" and "e" should not fall below wave "a". However, following the drop to 1.0807, it looks like a converging triangular pattern is still in place. Sometimes, what happens is that what...

AynCzubas

Price has dropped below the key level of $1142.59 today since I wrote this, so I have posted some updates below My sense about gold vs. the U.S. Dollar at this time is: The bearish triangle that developed between 2013-2014 implied that there would be a downward post-triangle impulsive thrust to the area of $1003. It has not yet reached that low, though the...

AynCzubas

It appears that this rally, which I believe is a wave "C" of a correction, is well into its 5th wave and therefore nearing an end. It has gone higher than I expected, but the key question is whether it will reach higher than 2137.13. If it turns down before that point and falls below its origin , I will maintain the view that the S&P has already begun a downward...

AynCzubas

Since the peak on May 19/20th, I can count what appears to be the beginning of a small-degree downward impulse wave, which seems to be within its 3rd wave now. This could be the start of the larger correction.

AynCzubas

The bearish triangle formation has repeatedly faked us out as to the top of the final "E" wave, by developing each "E" wave into a triangle itself. It looks like the pattern is running out of room to continue and will perhaps do so today. The final "E" should result in a mind-blowing downward cascade in the Euro/USD, hitting all of the post-triangle thrust points...

AynCzubas

At least that's what the triangles indicate... Shown below are weekly, 4-hour, and 15-minute charts of EURUSD illustrating triangles at various degrees. The steep decline of the EUR vs. USD (and inverse action in the DXY) since May 2014 has been the post-triangle thrust from the triangle which originated in October 2000. The post-triangle thrust is always an...

AynCzubas

Following my count of the S&P 500 since the minor "scare" decline in October 2014 as being an ending diagonal pattern, it looks to me as though the diagonal is now within the 5th and final wave. This final wave appears to be "extending", if you will, whereby the internal count of it can be labeled as 4 complete waves thus far (while still maintaining the overall...

AynCzubas

The present 4th wave rally should seek out the $70 level as that is both the .382 retracement of the 3rd wave as well as the origin of the 2nd wave of the extended 5th wave of the 3rd wave, and if it moves any higher will then encounter insurmountable resistance at $74.95 which is the extreme of wave 1 of the same degree. Between these two levels ($70-74.95) a...

AynCzubas

Since February, the Shanghai "A" Shares could be viewed as having developed an extended 5th wave which could complete the present rally soon. (The "B" Shares index, by comparison, appears to be in the final stage of an upward post-triangle thrust rally with still a bit further to go. ) Once the extended 5th wave is complete, it would be reasonable to expect the...