Roughly 30 days ago, a move to 195 seemed in order, followed by a significant drop. SPY hit roughly 194.50, but unfortunately I wasn't nimble enough or savvy enough to short on that day and eventually watched it drop quickly with my hands in my pockets. Action on 2/11 made me wary that a fresh lows were not probable, so I nibbled on some long calls, which...
The SPY is poised to resume its minor lift up to the 195 range, and then within two to three months should firmly rest below the long-held 180 support, with capitulation down to 170 and even 160 by the middle of 2016.