RSI making higher high. Breaking the MA 20.
RSI showing higher high. USDJPY breaks the MA 20 for the first time since the past 10 days.
Starting with a key level of 1.62531, this line was the previous resistance (Oct.2013) and later turn as a support (Dec. 2013~Feb.2014) of GBP/USD. Next, it started treading water around the psychologically important level of 50% Fibonacci retracement. This pair turns very bearish, once it fell through the 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement with lower highs and lower lows.
Short positions below 1.26271 with targets @ 1.24492. Alternative scenario: Above 1.26271 look for further upside with 1.26599 as a target. Comment: 1.) RSI is trending down. 2.) 20 days MA cross down over 50 days MA. 3.) Looking to sell off on the bounce down from Fib. 23.6%.
6 Year Timeframe: Jan.2009~Nov. 2014 67% of the time, prices are within Fib.23%~50%. 33% is out of the range of Fib.23%~50%; and in those times, 70% of the price is above Fib. 23.6%. and in the past two years, price has been bounded within the inner green channel of the pitchfork. So, I am taking a wild guess that this trend will keep going on, despite recent...
2002 to 2011: 2 yrs Bull --> 3 yrs Bear --> 2 yrs Bull -->4 yrs Bear -->3 yrs Bull --> ?starting by a 4 yrs Bear? as long as the price does not break above the market psychological level of 110 for too long. The gravity of this pair will be pulling downward
Bearish: as long as this pair is trading below 50% Fib.138.420, then EURJPY is bearish 1. MA200 Trend DOWN, MA100 cross down below MA200 2. RSI is below 60 level.
Since MACD has signal the cross down, and the RSI is still on the bull ride, I have decided to buy on the pullback.
Testing the lower bound of the trend line (2006~present)
Short term bounce back to test 50% Fib level
a short term bounce upward. RSI is making higher high
MACD is about to make the turn and RSI is above 55. It should have a good dive down testing new lows.
expecting to retrace back to the 61.8% Fib. level
LONG to test 23.6% Fib. for the 5 years, very few times has the EURUSD pair been trading below 1.26s level. for that, I believe that EURUSD will re bounce upward to test the 23.6% Fib. level.