A trend line had formed over the last several trading days. Yesterday's weak close ended just above, so that trend line served as resistance. However, we have now broken it, so we can expect either an acceleration to the downside or a retest of it, likely then followed by further downside movement.
Once again, I'm not a Bitcoin guy per se. But I am interested in it in a sort of academic way, as a spectator really. I have a super-bearish bias on the markets as a whole right now and I expect a deflationary depression (possibly followed later by an inflationary period). I watch Bitcoin simply so see how it will behave during the ongoing market crash that I...
The dollar index has nosed its way out of a bull flag after it has been coiling up in there for the last few weeks. If it spikes from here, having now freed itself from the flag, stocks will get crushed. We just need a catalyst and this thing is wound up so tight that it won't take much of one.
Lots to briefly discuss. Since the ES Futures are up, I'm assuming we'll have at least a small gap up tomorrow. This rally is very much living on borrowed time, so it could capitulate at literally any moment. Have your wiles about you. Be prepared for a selloff at any moment. The market is a tinder box right now. Several technicals are at play right now. If we...
For the bears, the VIX is cramming itself into the bottom of a bullish falling wedge which is part of a larger bear flag pattern. Strictly-speaking it has only been backtesting the perimeter of that flag, testing it for support, so it could pop at any moment. If anyone asks you, why, dare say, are you not bullish given the enthusiasm the markets are...
If you're a bear and are feeling mighty pain right now, that's actually a very good sign. Once the bears feel max pain, that's precisely when the market finally rolls over. But don't give in to the pain, my fellow bears, this rally is totally fake and don't let anyone make you believe otherwise. What I'm seeing is a very clear 3-wave structure beginning on the...
If the "top" of the head and shoulders pattern on the 30th was the end of the bear market rally, we can expect an impulse wave down from there. The first wave of that should be 5 waves down with a 3 wave correction to follow. From the 30th to the 4th, we did, in fact, see a 5 wave structure down and the ridiculous rallies since look like they might be forming a...
I am not an expert Elliottician, but this is my count: that, from the "head" as discussed in previous posts, which was the end of wave 2 of the bear market, we are beginning wave 3 down. It should be tremendous. Wave 3 will be composed of 5 large waves. We have begun wave 1 of 1 of that 3. From the head, I believe wave 1 is done, and a corrective 3 wave a-b-c...
I know that last puch up was so painful for the bears, but there are two silver linings for the bears: 1) it closed a very narrow gap from a couple of days ago and 2) it produced a bearish rising wedge (even more clear on a 5 min chart Hang in there bears!
There was a weird and wild rally in the S&P futures overnight. I see 3 structures forming: 1) a strict bullish channel (yellow), 2) a bull flag (blue) and 3) a megaphone (red), all of which revolve around the right shoulder of a potential head and shoulders pattern that I have been discussing the last few days. What's weird about the bullish channel that formed...
I am not particularly interested in Bitcoin, and I personally wouldn't ever own it myself, but I am interested in it because of how it liquidated during the market crash when there was a big panic and rush to cash in February and March. As a result, I started watching it to look for anything interesting because I have a general thesis about the marketplace right...
Sorry about this, I'm really not a Bitcoin guy, but something interesting is afoot. See my previous post on Bitcoin for a much longer discussion. But, having read that first, note the following in this chart: the pink line is the Greater Bull Flag, the blue line is the lesser bear flag within that bull flag, and I've added a bearish rising wedge (orange) that has...
Just a quick overview: the other day I had suggested that a head and shoulders pattern was developing on SPY and the ES Futures. And I pointed to the possibility that the right shoulder was, in fact, forming as we speak. If that is the case, it should indicate this tremendous bear market rally from the March lows is coming to a conclusion, or already did at the...
The SPY has entered a triangle pattern. This sideways move with tightening ranges often resolves itself with a large move to either side. One can think of it as a spring coiling, or as energy building up. Of course, being very bearish on the markets as I am, I expect the move to be to the downside. It looks like it should resolve itself sometime this afternoon.
The only structure I see forming today so far on the SPY is a downward sloping channel. So, you can keep an eye on that. Hopefully the damn thing finally takes a dump.
Related to my last post, keep an eye on this bearish rising wedge pattern forming (sigh, yet another rising wedge pattern). If it breaks with force, then we are still on track to see the head and shoulders pattern deteriorate. If the futures climb up out of it, also with some force, then a continuation of the "Z," or final zag of the double zig zag grows in probability.
My previous posts assumed that a double zigzag Elliott Wave structure for Wave 2 had come to a conclusion because of how nicely a head and shoulders pattern had appeared. My expectation was that the market would then begin to roll over and things looked promising into yesterday's close. However, we are now looking to gap up, yet again, and so if it charges even...