The Nifty-50 has a very nice wedge off the March lows complete with RSI divergence on three subsequent higher highs in price. That looks ready to fall. Long-term chart is difficult to discern (below). It might be a broadening formation, so look for the bottom channel to be retested.
This one is the weirdest thing I've seen. Decimation in the crash, followed by a NASDAQ-like rocket to new highs afterwards, then a total break with that structure. I'm frankly at a bit of a loss here. This feels like diving into Russian-language literature. The letters don't even look recognizable. So now we're in a new downward sloping channel that feels totally...
This has been fun going through the different markets because I see hybrids between various price actions. This market is a little difficult to settle on. I like this bear flag on the local scale. The last couple of days almost makes it look like it wants to go up again to retest that upper channel, but considering how bearish the other markets look, I doubt that...
The DAX, no surprises here, a big flag off the March lows. A couple of differences between this and S&P 500 and Dow: because its "flag" has parallel lines, and is not more like the "pennant" found on the S&P 500, the last week's price action has not caused it to "break" from this structure yet. That said, the recent price action looks similar to the price action...
The FTSE, as with so many others, has a nice wedge off the March lows. Like the S&P 500, the trend line from the February high to the June high remains intact. As a matter of fact, the FTSE rejected from it today. Hmm. Wow, the very long-term chart (below) looks depressing. It has gone virtually nowhere in 20 years. Over 30 years, it has taken the form of a...
A beautiful bear flag on the Brazil index. I haven't much to add about that, except that, like the Canadian TSX, the strong counter rally after the June high and subsequent drop has broken the channel from the February high to the June high. Also, very locally, the most recent price action has formed a wedge similar to the one on the S&P 500: The long-term...
Canada's TSX is an interesting index. The stocks listed in it represent roughly 70% of the market cap of all publicly traded Canadian companies. For perspective, the last data I could find puts the S&P 500 at around 83% in the US. As with many indices, it formed a nice wedge from the March lows, but there are some special differences here: the island top...
Toyota, much like many stocks and indices around the world, has an all too familiar flag formation off the March lows. Toyota's is very clean in structure, with two distinct "humps" inside of it. I very much expect this to break down. In the first crash, it broke a long-term trend line (red) that dates back about eight years. That will be easily broken again...
As I've mentioned before in my previous posts on Bitcoin, I do not trade it but watch it with great curiosity to see how it might behave if the markets totally fall apart again. I expect those forces to be a resumption of the deflationary forces that are trying to exert themselves. In that scenario, if that is what we are facing, I expect this asset to fall with...
I'm a little agnostic on the metals, because on the one hand, unprecedented central bank interventions should lead to inflation, and these are the two most accessible and obvious hedges against that. On the other hand, I believe that the deflationary forces trying to assert themselves in the world were abruptly arrested by those very interventions. So, do we go...
On the WTI Crude chart, I detect a head and shoulders topping pattern probably forming. Look for this to pullback from here.
On the long-term weekly chart, the dollar index looks to have formed a triangle. Since it is not symmetrical, and considering the fundamental landscape (I believe the markets will deteriorate quite dramatically soon), I believe this will turn out to be a continuation pattern, leading us to the upside. That said, the short-term chart looks bearish, so perhaps we...
On January 22nd, the 10-year US treasury yield fell out of a flag and we all know what happened then. Interestingly, it may be forming another flag now, and if we look closely, it may have actually broken and failed a backtest: Watch this carefully.
The top channel is so flat that it almost looks like a rectangle pattern, but today's actions brought the SPY 0.15 above the channel strike it made on the 16th of June. So, strictly speaking, this has taken on the look of a wedge continuation pattern. If this structure is valid, then that should be all she wrote. The puke into the close looked very promising....
Please see my previous post from earlier today regarding the three blowoff tops. Top of the market in February, top of the bear market rally in June, and very quite possibly today. I want to follow that post up with an observation about gaps. It's a tale of four gaps in particular, two on the SPY, two on the VIX. When the SPY first gapped down in February, the...
I guess it's letting us short it for a second time.
As the market continued its relentless push to the upside today, I noticed that channels I drew were not being retested with consolidation and that instead, price action only accelerated to the upside. This is a phenomenon called "accelerating fan lines" and they are a sign of a "blowoff top." When I saw that on the short duration scale, I laughed, because that's...
Tesla the rocket ship not only regained its wedge, but then stuck its finger in the eye of every Tesla bear by trying to revisit the top range of that wedge. That said, it had to pay a steep price for that. It now has one of the very sharpest bearish RSI divergences I have ever seen. On a swing trading time horizon, the path is down.