CMT_Association

CMT_Association

I begin each year reviewing the long term technical positions of the "Big Four." 10 Year rates, SPX, Commodities, and the US Dollar. This is the fourth of the series. The fifth and final will attempt to tie the first four together into a organized macro view. Granted, macro doesn’t typically impact shorter term (swing, daily and weekly) trading, but developing a...

CMT_Association

I begin each year reviewing the long term technical positions of the "Big Four." 10 Year rates, SPX, Commodities, and the US Dollar. This is the third of the series. Granted, macro doesn’t typically impact shorter term (swing, daily and weekly) trading, but developing a broad framework to build understanding of market context and to help recognize change in the...

CMT_Association

A reminder that falling bond yields are synonymous with higher bond prices while rising bond yields are synonymous with lower bond prices. In other words, a yield downtrend is the same thing as a bull market in bonds. Last week we published macro overviews of rates and equities that should be referred to for context. 1) A weekly close above the 1.77% would...

CMT_Association

I begin each year reviewing the long term technical positions of the "Big Four." 10 Year rates, SPX, Commodities, and the US Dollar. This is the second of the series. Granted, macro doesn’t typically impact shorter term (swing, daily and weekly) trading but developing a framework for markets and for recognizing the potential for change is important. Next week I...

CMT_Association

Big Four Overview: Part 1: Bonds I begin each year reviewing the long term technical positions of the "Big Four." 10 Year rates, SPX, Commodities, and the US Dollar. Since by profession I am a rates/credit portfolio manager and trader, I always start there. Granted, macro doesn’t typically impact shorter term (swing, daily and weekly) trading, having a framework...

CMT_Association

This monthly perspective chart of Shopify (Shop) illustrates a stock in which supply is gradually overpowering demand. • Three drives to a high (X1-X3) is a common pattern (and one of my favorites). It often marks the end of a trend. ○ Each successive thrust in the pattern covers less ground. This occurs as sellers (supply) become more willing than buyers...