CRInvestor

CRInvestor

In very typical fashion, a blow off top signals the end to a very long bull run and the beginning of a consolidation phase for this once market leader. For future reference, if you ever see an asset double in price in about six months (in this case it was about 8 months) you should tell yourself 'that's a trap!'. Indeed, price collapsed coming out of that top and...

CRInvestor

The top registered through the fall & winter of 2012/13 is currently being challenged as economic data of late points to a slowing of the broader US economy not the much anticipated acceleration.Additionally, stock price appreciation has cooled of late and a lot of that hot money is finding its way into treasuries.

CRInvestor

Short the Japanese Yen has been by far 'The trade' of 2013. Now entering its 22nd week of a downward correction CRI's weekly commodity trend survey (www.therationalinvestor.ca) suggests the short came in at 123.99. Initial targets were hit and far exceeded and any remaining shorts from this trade (if you were able to trade multiple lots) ought to be considered...

CRInvestor

Another currency at a cross roads. Should this market break higher then a test of the OTE Short SS (70.5% retrace) ought to be expected and a fill of the rather noticeable gap. A bearish resolution and we not only test the key pivot low from the fall of 2010 (.8573) but we may have to go much much further...

CRInvestor

Amid the mass depreciation of various global currencies, the Loonie has stayed relatively stable over the past few years. As a commodity proxy it should have the wind at its back through this current 17.5 year 'fear' cycle and that ought to continue until this cycle comes to an end. At present, austerity from Europe, fiscal cliff's in North America and now an...

CRInvestor

As long as 'austerity' is the buzz word out of Europe I see little to no growth and a long slow decline in the Euro - FX. One by one the 'PIGS' will slowly exit the trading zone amid a very sanguine economic backdrop. Should Federalization ever gain traction (exchange of country debt for some sort of Euro debt instrument) this market will take off. Ironically,...

CRInvestor

The US dollar index has enjoyed a nice rally through the better part of the Obama administration and that should be expected during any Democrat US Executive branch's term. An extension of the 1st administration's (US dollar bullish/commodity bearish) policies should be expected over the coming few years. It is no surprise then to see the US dollar index has...

CRInvestor

Copper is such a key component in manufacturing (from housing to airplanes to automobiles) that its direction is often a great proxy for global economic output. Rising copper prices equates to booming economies; falling prices equates to contraction. Talk of austerity is contractionary not expansionary and so it should not surprise us to see Copper prices falling....

CRInvestor

While the exact bottom isn't clearly in yet, some metal companies are trading at incredible discounts to their fundamental valuations. Moly companies have been 'on the outs' since China stopped building. Now that Japan has made it known it is about to go on a massive spending spree could some of that money flow into badly needed infrastructure (ie steel)? And...

CRInvestor

Energy prices are at a cross roads. Very much like the US Dollar index, there can be cases made for both bullish and bearish resolutions. At the moment however, seasonal forces may weigh as momentum and price have failed at a very bad time of year.

CRInvestor

CRI's weekly commodity trend survey (www.therationalinvestor.ca) has had gold trending lower now for 16 weeks. Today's big break does suggest we are nearing some sort of short term capitulation as initial targets approach. While it is far too late to sell now, there are still no signs of a bottom to justify buying this asset either.