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On the notion of correlation of BTC with the DXY and M1
BTCUSD
, 1W
BTCUSD: On the notion of correlation of BTC with the DXY and M1
Updated 

Fellow analyst on Trading View #TradingShot brought up an interesting analysis on the notion correlation of BTC with the DXY (U.S. Dollar) and M1 (Money Supply). His view from December 2019 to today seemed to give room for speculation on a possible correlation. Intrigued by this idea I compared the three in separate panes and on the weekly view starting July...

Correlation of BTC with the DXY, M1 and Gold
BTCUSD
, 1W
BTCUSD: Correlation of BTC with the DXY, M1 and Gold
Updated 

To add on to may prior idea comparison I have added Gold for comparison. See for yourself what you sense is correlated an what is not.

What if BTC reaches it's predicted $100k target, BUT
BTCUSD
, 1W
BTCUSD: What if BTC reaches it's predicted $100k target, BUT

What if? we experience a currency devaluation that will hyperdeflate the value of EUR and USD and in return hyperinflate the value of Bitcoin. That would be an easy way to reach BTC's $100.000 stock-to-flow target, but would lead to an immense loss of actual value!

BTC taking healthy but scary dip fighting for support at $10,400
BTCUSD
, 1W
Long
BTCUSD: BTC taking healthy but scary dip fighting for support at $10,400
Updated 

Bitcoin took a healthy but scary dip over the last two days and is now looking to find support at the former resistance level of $10,400. If it does my scenario A is likely to play out. Bitcoin did not cross completely through the Keltner channel yet and did a similar bounce-of about halfway into the channel end of June. However sell pressure may continue and my...

BTC weakness in not breaking the downward channel - Commentary
BTCUSD
, 1W
BTCUSD: BTC weakness in not breaking the downward channel - Commentary

It's now the 7th week Bitcoin fails to break the downward channel from it's last all-time high December 2017. Additionally it behaves similar to August 2018 (orange circle) when it was moving sideways while the expectation was that it would "finally" breakthrough . Instead it lost another 50% of it's value. Now it tripled from those lows around $3,000 so I am...

Bitcoin about to follow stock to flow model price predictions
BTCUSD
, 1W
Long
BTCUSD: Bitcoin about to follow stock to flow model price predictions

After a disappointing price non-action last week Bitcoin is showing strength at the beginning of this week. BTC is still trying to establish a close above the downtrend channel. Let's be honest BTC has been expected by everybody to follow the predictions on price of the stock to flow model . With that it seems inevitable that BTC will crack the resistance level...

BTC the Black Swan event cannot stop Bitcoin Phoenix
BTCUSD
, 1W
Long
BTCUSD: BTC the Black Swan event cannot stop Bitcoin Phoenix

I guess I was forcasting pretty well in my scenario 4 on March 12, 2020. Bitcoin was scared a lot of the black swan called Corona that day. Yesterday the Phoenix called Bitcoin as risen from the ashes again ready for the halving rally in the next weeks. However it is important for Bitcoin to break the $10,000 mark, better yet hit the $11,000 marker to turn on the...

DJI Bulls Fighting Downward Suction - Still I remain SHORT on DJ
DJI
, 1D
Short
DJI: DJI Bulls Fighting Downward Suction - Still I remain SHORT on DJ

Forgive the cramped analysis however I wanted to show with the Ichimoku Cloud, the Keltner Channel and the SAR indicator were the DJI came from, was heading and may be heading. As the trends are not that clear yet on the weekly I used the daily chart. The Keltner channel has been crossed downward first, followed by the Ichimoku base and conversion line exiting the...

DJI trying to hold 50% Fib. Retracement
DJI
, 1D
Short
DJI: DJI trying to hold 50% Fib. Retracement

The Dow Jones had recaptured the 50% Fib. retracement at $24,080. If it is able to hold on to this level during reporting season and can also recapture the $25,375 level 61,8% Fib. retracement I would starting to feel more neutral about this huge mess in front of us. For now the DJI appears to allow for a neutral investment strategy. My personal opinion is (this...

Dow Jones continued recovery scenario
DJI
, 1W
Long
DJI: Dow Jones continued recovery scenario

Looking at the Dow Jones in the hope of the starting release of closedowns would mean 2 weeks of a technical correction 5% downturn during the reporting season, followed by a 15% uptick for two month.

DJI about to retreat from interim high and deep dive!
DJI
, 1D
Short
DJI: DJI about to retreat from interim high and deep dive!

As in recent financial crisis we saw a rebound from the initial drop. Expect the DJI and overall the markets to now take a (deep) dive again. How far down? I would forecast total decline to 50% or even up to 80%. The measurements taken to supposedly prevent a catastrophy caused by SARS-CoV-2 will now bring an ensured financial crisis. The All-In Bubble is now...

DJI unlikely to keep its upward momentum...expect new low at 17k
DJI
, 1D
Short
DJI: DJI unlikely to keep its upward momentum...expect new low at 17k

Credit Suisse says the US economy will shrink 33.5% next quarter, the biggest drop in history. The US economy shed 701,000 jobs in March, sending the unemployment rate to its sharpest one-month rise since 1975. The worst is yet to come after the initial shock triggered by COVID-19. I expect a lower low at 17.000 for the DJI and that is if we are lucky and somehow...

Dot.com - Real Estate - 2020 Zero Interest Rate Bubble Burst
DJI
, 1W
Short
DJI: Dot.com - Real Estate - 2020 Zero Interest Rate Bubble Burst

Fibonacci retracements from the Dot.com Bubble, to the Real Estate Bubble and to todays Zero Interest Rate Bubble. Pick your landing zone or where do you think we need to land to heal the system and return to commercial caution behaviour in companies and in particular in government?

Black Swan and the end of the myth - Bitcoin clearly trapped
BTCUSD
, 1W
Short
BTCUSD: Black Swan and the end of the myth - Bitcoin clearly trapped

Bitcoin (BTC) just lost a lot of reputation by giving in to the scare of the Black Swan called Corona. If Bitcoin was ever to be a safe haven in crisis this would have been the moment to proof it. That and all well wishers and fortune teller analyst can pack their bags. This story is no longer believeable. The only thing that would bring that narrative back is if...

Bitcoin (BTC) testing logarithmic support level
BTCUSD
, 1W
Long
BTCUSD: Bitcoin (BTC) testing logarithmic support level

Many voices, much fear. I my view Bitcoin is testing the logarithmic support level at ~$7.850. If it holds this week I will continue in my scenario 3 and we shall see the upward trend picking up and the bulls keeping their control. If it fails then we will likely see the retest of the $6.000 level for support and stay in the overall current downward trend channel...

Bitcoin steady upward - 10k and 11k target in sights
BTCUSD
, 1W
Long
BTCUSD: Bitcoin steady upward - 10k and 11k target in sights

As predicted in my scenario 3 Bitcoin (BTC) is on a steady upward motion and testing the $10,000 mark. It will tackle this hurdle this week and take aim at $11,000. If and when it breaks that barrier we are likely to see a continued parabolic move towards its all-time highs at $20,000. Bitcoin has broken out of the Keltner Channels upwards, so the momentum is in...

Bitcoin starting its rocket boosters as predicted
BTCUSD
, 1W
Long
BTCUSD: Bitcoin starting its rocket boosters as predicted

As predicted Bitcoin has turned on it's rocket boosters in my scenario 3. We will see soon if this will lead to Bitcoin breaking out of the overall downward trend channel. Overall the crypto market is on fire. It sure feels like we are at the gate of an altcoin cycle and potentially new BTC highs. This week will tell if the direction holds.

Bitcoin Bulls Battling for Rocket Booster level of 8,400 USD
BTCUSD
, 1W
Long
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Bulls Battling for Rocket Booster level of 8,400 USD

As forecasted in my scenario 3 recently the Bitcoin bulls managed to break out of the first downward channel trend. This week close will show if Bitcoin can maintain the level at and above 8,400 USD for launching the rockets and take aim for 11,000 USD the second downward trend channel to break or bounce off from.

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