Cherry94

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals SPX - China stimulus news - Risk: Seasonality USD - Strong dovish remarks from Golsbee Technical & Other Setup: TC(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Up Long-term: Range Min target: 3R, Fib ext. level Risk: 0.5% Risk (R): 0.5R

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment USD: - Undervalued according to many market internals CHF: - Generally, the franc is too expensive for SNB's liking Technical & Other - Expecting USD shorts from this week to unwind before the big US data releases next week Setup: S(RTF) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Range Long-term: Down Min target:...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment CAD: Bullish oil inventory data yesterday. Generally ok US data (GDP, Claims, etc) today. Risk-on sentiment continuation from China stimulus. JPY: Bearish Internals, CFTC. Technical & Other Setup: TC(RTF) Setup timeframe: 1h Trigger: 15m Medium term: Up Long-term: Down Min target: 3R Risk: 0.27% Risk R: 0.5R Main risk: buying into...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment EUR: - Recent bearish economic data CHF: - Consensus is 0.25 cut, but the market is currently pricing in -37 b.pts. cut. Betting on pricing out towards the consensus. Technical & Other Setup: S(RTF) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium term: Up Long-term: Down Min target: DMA(10) Risk: 0.50% Risk R: 0.5R

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals AUD - Rate Hold expectations - Hawkish RBA, the most positive exp. rate differential USD - Strong dovish remarks from Golsbee Technical & Other Setup: TC(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Sideways Long-term: Sideways Min target: ~0.69 Risk: 0.28%

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals Hang Seng - Broad economic data remains bleak - HK market isn't so strictly regulated like the mainland one, so it can more likely be let falling - Risks: Loosening the real estate regulations in big cities, Alibaba case resolve. USD - Risks: Fed's 0.5 cut prompts risk assets higher Technical & Other Setup: TR(RTF) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger:...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals AUD - Hawkish rethoric - Market Internals (Yield diff., Infl.Exp.diff, Impl.Vol) NZD - Market Internals Technical & Other - Entered with buy limit; 1/2R should be closed according to the price action halfway to the initial SL. The total assumed risk is 1R. Setup: S(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Sideways Long-term: Down Min...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals USD - CFTC oversold - Possible safe-haven reaction if the 0.5 is perceived as a recessionary cut. - Latest economic releases are ok CAD - CPI Down Technical & Other - Buy limit - CAD hasn't grown in the general sentiment of the dollar sell-off Setup: S(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Up Long-term: Sideways Min target: ~1.37 Risk: 0.22%

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals EUR - Correlated to the dollar (Oversold USD due to exaggerated cut expectations) - Risk Reversals, Infl.Exp.Diff. NZD - Bearish recent economic data - Market Internals - Dovish rhetoric from RBNZ Technical & Other - Entered partially and didn't get to enter with the second part Setup: TC(RTF) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term:...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals USD - Oversold dollar due to exaggerated cut expectations - CFTC CHF - SNB doesn't like franc high Technical & Other - Entered shortly after the release Setup: S(B) Setup timeframe: 1h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Down Long-term: Down Min target: Local high Risk: 0.21%

Cherry94 Updated 

GBP - Good Service PMI data - Strong carry USD - ADP Employment Miss - Fed: dovish talk: "going towards cuts", "labor should stay the same" Technical & Other - entered quite late after the ADP release Setup: S(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 15m Medium-term: Up Long-term: Up Min target: Local highs Risk: 0.18%; 0.5R

Cherry94 Updated 

NZD - Dovish rhetoric - Market Internals USD - Mixed PCE & Income data - Oversold dollar due to exaggerated cut expectations Technical & Other - Entered shortly after the release Setup: TR(B) Setup timeframe: 1h Trigger: 5m Medium-term: Up Long-term: Up Min target: Mirror level, DMA(10) Risk: 0.38%

Cherry94 Updated 

CHF - Market Internals - SNB doesn't like it high USD - Strong GDP data. Claims were released slightly below the cons.; ISM PMI positive expectations - Oversold dollar due to exaggerated cut expectations - Bullish CFTC Technical & Other Setup: TR(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Down Long-term: Down Min target: Local mirror level, 3R Risk:...

Cherry94 Updated 

EUR - Weak CPI data - Market internals divergences USD - Strong GDP data. Claims were released slightly below the cons. - Oversold dollar due to exaggerated cut expectations Technical & Other - Entered shortly after the release Setup: TR(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1m Medium-term: Up Long-term: Up Min target: 0.38 Fibo, 3R Risk: 0.68%

Cherry94 Updated 

AUD - Mixed latest CPI, with the actual slightly beating consensus but the underlying being promising - Market internals favor the downside USD - oversold, rate markets see cuts to be too aggressive Technical & Other Setup: TR(RTF) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Down Long-term: Sideways Min target: ~ DMA(10) Risk: 1.11%

Cherry94 Updated 

AUD - Hawkish RBA, at a previous meeting even discussed the rate hike - Positive US Headline Jobless Claims - good for risk assets CHF - Franc is in dangerous territory for SNB, risking deflation - possible intervention to devalue CHF Technical & Other Setup: S(B) Setup timeframe: 1h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Down Long-term: Down Min target: 0.58 Risk: 0.68%

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment USD - Data: Retail Sales, Initial Claims Hot JPY - BoJ: won't raise rates if markets are unstable - CTFTC overbought Technical & Other Setup: TC(RTF) Setup timeframe: 1h Trigger: 15m Medium-term: Range Long-term: Down Min target: 149.49 Risk: 0.17%

Cherry94 Updated 

Nikkei - GDP growth metrics are expected to grow JPY - BOJ'S UCHIDA: WE MUST MAINTAIN CURRENT DEGREE OF MONETARY EASING FOR THE TIME BEING - OJ'S UCHIDA: SEE NO BIG CHANGE TO JAPAN, U.S., ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS SO MARKET REACTION TO SINGLE U.S. DATA APPEARS TOO BIG - JPY is overbought in the short-term according to CFTC Technical & Other Setup: TR(B) Setup...