ChiefMacro

ChiefMacro

bitcoin selloff under way. I think it is $43K-ish before it catches itself, only to break down again and test $20K. Also don't be surprised if the rest of the market recovers / rallies next week Monday, 12/6; again I am saying crypto likely will continue lower while the rest of the market recovers. Let's see.

ChiefMacro

It is truly amazing how many "experts" and soy-boys are still out there pumping cryptocurrency like it some kind of "new" thing or some future currency...... Honestly as I type, I don't even know what kind of half baked, deranged middle class white male fantasy ideas are floating around out there. Adoption, the debt clock, yellowstone, mass adoption, the fed,...

ChiefMacro

Bitcoin continues to exhibit signs of fatigue following the 500% bull run that took place over the last 15 months (Late Summer 2020 - Fall 2021). As we come into a key area at $57k-$55k, a break below this range will likely take us to $43k very quickly in one ugly devastating move. From there, a few unfortunate herbivores will rush in - thinking it is a great...

ChiefMacro

AUDUSD looking like it will continue to move higher. I am comfortable buying / adding to a long position here. Look for commodity prices to continue moving higher as well.

ChiefMacro Updated 

Just looks good. Also, I am not convinced $DXY has the strength to hold up.

ChiefMacro

Ethereum is building a bear flag up against the All Time High. Looking for this to go lower along with #Bitcoin. On that note, it is time to dismiss the narrative that "crypto is being more widely accepted". I'm not sure there has ever been a more misleading and dangerous financial suggestion in history. The reality is developed governments will never accept...

ChiefMacro

#Bitcoin looks like a relatively dangerous place to be in terms of the ever so delicate balance of risk/reward. I have been forthright in my view that the $2.4T cryptocurrency market cap is a huge drag on the global economy; that is to say, any dollar sitting in some crypto form of savings is... well, not really doing what it is supposed to do. Policy Makers know...

ChiefMacro

This looks like the beginning of a very well-identified read - a bullish breakout - originally identified and published on August 12th, 2021. I am fairly confident this will reach the previous all-time-high and likely move quickly to the upper $80s.

ChiefMacro

Not really sure what to make of this just yet, but the 10Y yield definitely appears to be heading higher. Ironically enough, this is happening amid a #fed that is committed (at least in the near term) to maintaining low interest rates. My guess is the Fed knows rates will rise on their own, thereby creating a competitive environment among lenders. We will...

ChiefMacro

The Baltic Dry Index Continues to soar following my call for a breakout at 3,200ish (July 2021). I think the BDI remains a good indicator right now for a few reasons: 1. From a technical perspective, it is behaving exactly as expected (hence the call from 3,200 - it was an easy read) 2. The breakout and move higher is consistent with a bottleneck in global...

ChiefMacro

A lot happening this week with the fed meeting and someone with power somewhere running their mouth about what "ought to be". This is a relatively high risk trade long or short. To me inflation will prevail and we will likely see speculators continue to drive up commodity prices.

ChiefMacro

I have entered a short in the Nasdaq via $SQQQ. The important thing to note, is that this short is taking place within a very clear bullish channel. That said, I must remain aware of the very real possibility that this could go against me. As such I am prepared to abandon the trade should we start to violate the most recent all time high.

ChiefMacro

Mentioned Visa a few days back. I think this looks like it is setting up to move higher. Visa: LONG.

ChiefMacro Updated 

More on this later, but the chart indicates weakness. That said, I am not sure what to make of the bear wedge just yet. Does this lead the entire market lower? Do we go sideways for a little while and then take off higher? For now, really interested in the price action at $214 and will continue to monitor.

ChiefMacro Updated 

Watching this one closey as a leading indicator for world trade.

ChiefMacro

I think this thing wants out. Looks like a bull, smells like a bull.

ChiefMacro

At the time of this post: $AMZN | $3,479 $GOOG | $2,916 $TEAM | $371 $MSFT | $301

ChiefMacro

Likely a very unpopular call, but I think USDCAD ultimately fails here. My quick summary view of the dollar follows, but I will note that there is some event-driven opportunity to make some money in a USDCAD trade, with Hurricane Ida approaching Oil Production in the Gulf of Mexico (likely causing oil to spike). I have had the view for a couple of months that the...