ChristopherCarrollSmith

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

With bonds rallying a bit, it's possible we will see gold break upward out of its recent downtrend. I can't help but compare gold's recent moves to the 2012-2013 top in gold. We look to be making a very similar pattern, but on a compressed time scale. Long term this comparison implies that gold will move downward from here, but short term, if the comparison holds,...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

Cardinal health is currently sitting at a resistance level that held from 2000-2013. From 2014-2018 it traded above this resistance level, but in 2018 it dropped back below it. For the last two years, the stock has been trying to break through this level, but has been rejected roughly 19 times. Thanks to trend line support, we're coming toward a decision point...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

3x inverse ETFs let you use leverage to bet against stocks. This chart shows the 14-day Money Flow Indicator (MFI 14) on a 3x inverse semiconductor fund (SOXS). SOXS is an inverse leveraged bet on the SOXX semiconductor ETF, which is also shown on the chart. Interestingly, the flow of money into and out of SOXS has often been a contrarian indicator of where SOXX...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

Sentiment Is Suddenly Very Bearish on Equities, SPX, NDX, RUT It's been a volatile few weeks of trading as the S&P 500 pulled back a bit (and the Nasdaq pulled back a bit more). Bearish sentiment has grown as the price dipped. The $CPCE equity put/call ratio rose sharply this week to levels last seen in March 2020, near the beginning of the pandemic. The...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

Merck is one of my favorite pharmaceutical companies. As far as I can tell, it a genuinely ethical and well-managed company with an above-average ESG rating. Merck has executed pretty consistently, with an average of 2% annual sales growth, 2.5% annual dividend growth, 3% annual earnings growth, and 4% annual free cash flow growth over the past several...

ChristopherCarrollSmith

Expand Your Time Scale A significant 2% selloff like we saw today can sometimes feel like a buying opportunity-- "stocks are on sale!" We humans are extremely impatient, short-term thinkers. Especially when you're new to trading, it's tempting to rush in and buy every "dip." But to win at investing over the long term, you've really got to develop a much larger...

ChristopherCarrollSmith

After BLASTING through trend line resistance in November, Netapp is finally experiencing a healthy pullback today after its earnings report. Earnings and guidance both exceeded analyst expectations, but the stock is pulling back anyway. This is consistent with the overall trend this earnings season. Lots of stocks have pulled back after earnings beats. Netapp is...

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ChristopherCarrollSmith

Quandl is a data library with all sorts of useful macroeconomic data. Unfortunately a lot of it you have to pay for, but there are also many data series you can access for free, including the "Blockchain" library with lots of useful data such as Bitcoin transaction fees. To access Quandl data, go to quandl.com. In the left-hand column, check the "Free" box to...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

After a devastating drop due to rising 10-year yields, the VGLT treasury bond fund is sitting right atop strong support at both the 200-week moving average and the 50-month moving average: My guess is that for purely technical reasons we get a little bounce from here, with a green day for bonds and a red day for financials tomorrow.

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

Looking Back on Tesla's 2020 Bull Run Tesla is massively overvalued and has been for a long time. We're talking probably something from 20-100x fair value, to be honest. But Tesla has also continuously moved higher, for several reasons. First, institutions have been systematically gamma-squeezing the stock higher by buying out-of-the-money call options on it....

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

Here's another one that's close to triggering my buy alert today. SAIC is a government technology contractor and should fare well under a Democrat administration. It pays a nearly 2% dividend, and I estimate forward P/E at 12-13 and forward P/S at about .8. That's an objectively attractive valuation and also leaves about 16% upside to SAIC's median multiple of the...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

Allison has been getting hit along with other manufacturers due to rising producer prices and steel shortages, but I continue to believe the company's prospects are impressive, with an overall quite positive outlook for earnings. And this sharp drop makes the valuation attractive too. I estimate Allison's forward P/E at less than 10, forward P/S at less than 1.5,...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

Since 2018, Gold has pretty closely tracked the inverted real yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds. Recently, however, a fairly large gap has opened between the two. Will gold close the gap with inverted bond yields, or vice versa? Generally speaking, it looks like gold has led bonds for most of this period. That suggests that gold investors are a little quicker to...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

Back in September I posted about the rotation from value to growth, and I laid out three targets for the ratio of RSP (an equal-weighted S&P 500 ETF) to SPY (a cap-weighted S&P 500 ETF). I updated the idea in November to note that the trade was playing out as planned and had hit my second target. In January, we finally hit my Target #3, bringing the...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

The Setup Northrop Grumman has made a support trend line since 2013, and it now looks to be bouncing from that line after approaching it Friday. NOC also has support at 287 from recent lows. More importantly, NOC has a positive news catalyst after announcing a $2 billion buyback program this morning. Value NOC is a pretty compelling value. I estimate forward...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

Introduction Video game retailer GameStop is up nearly 800% in the last two weeks. The story of how this happened makes for both an entertaining soap opera and an educational example of some market-making forces every trader should be aware of: short squeezes and gamma squeezes. Buckle in to learn how reddit vigilantes took on activist short-sellers and caused a...

ChristopherCarrollSmith Updated 

Introduction If you're here on TradingView, it's probably because you believe that charts and technical analysis can give you an edge in the trading of currencies, metals, cryptocurrencies, and stocks. Granted, sometimes technical analysis doesn't work, but it works often enough to keep hundreds thousands of traders coming back here day after day. The larger...

ChristopherCarrollSmith

Oil prices have been on a tear lately, driven by a combination of travel recovery and inflation expectations. Oil and gas stocks have been rising along with them. (Other commodities prices are climbing as well, by the way, which bodes well for value stocks for the foreseeable future.) Oil and gas companies still looks reasonably valued, with roughly 10-15% upside...