Crypto-Hamster

Crypto-Hamster

While the number of bitcoin shorts is still rather high, and it may even get higher, since many people will expect to see a correction of the rise. If then there will be a positive decision on ProShares Bitcoin ETFs on August 23rd, we may see a bull flag possibly extended up to 7.4k+.

Crypto-Hamster

New uptrend channel is formed. Highly possible that bitcoin will move within it for a while with a couple false breakouts in both directions. The only thing that is slightly worrisome is the volume decrease. On the other hand, it is a sign of a breakout coming soon. Which way?

Crypto-Hamster

Probably, altcoins moves mess up the picture a bit though.

Crypto-Hamster

The triangle was broken up, then down, and that final downward movement was soon corrected back. It feels like the people, with some bags play with the gullible traders to play by TA rules and then rip them off. The decreased volume, making manipulations easier, also confirms that.

Crypto-Hamster

The sideways price action channel formed recently is very similar to those that were before after major drops, which followed with the rises. Taking into account the size and duration of the previous accumulation at around 8k, there is no much sense to push price lower, unless to crash it completely, which is unlikely. But, as soon as it didn't happen yet, and all...

Crypto-Hamster

Price continue to climb, but what is weird that while usually the number of shorts becomes lower in that case (also because of the price move wipes them out), while the number of longs grows. Now it is almost opposite! Either we do not know some crucial news, or people do not believe in a reversal. A great time to push the price even higher.

Crypto-Hamster Updated 

Continuing to look at the recent trend of bitcoin, we could see that the downtrend channel that was forming around 8k was broken tree times, but the price returned back to it. Recently though with the fact that the price dropped to the crucial level of 6k, it is harder and harder to keep it falling with such a fast speed, and the actual trend is indicated by a...

Crypto-Hamster Updated 

The downtrend channel is still valid, but three green days lead the price to the top of the channel. The number of shorts is close to the maximum level from April, which was really the extraordinary number, and without that the current value is around the maximum for the whole period of time. Longs are pretty stable – they are much less affected from the price...

Crypto-Hamster

The process similar to the current one happened in 2014. Compare the two and see the details in the linked analysis. There were four waves of correction for bitcoin in 2018th. Each of them had higher relative upper bounce, although in a quantitative way was lower. The similar situation was in 2014th, although the time scale was longer. Three major scenarios:...

Crypto-Hamster

There were four waves of correction for bitcoin in 2018th. Each of them had higher relative upper bounce, although in a quantitative way was lower. The similar situation was in 2014th, although the time scale was longer. Three major scenarios: 1) go lower, and even significantly lower – very unlikely, 5-10% probability, 2) stagnation for a year or more – quite...

Crypto-Hamster

The downtrend channel was changed a bit, but the price is still there. The rise from yesterday may be just a slight correction of the drop that was too fast. Now, when RSI will be cooled off a little, bitcoin may go lower again. In order to reestimate the chances for the rise instead of the prolongated fall, there are levels at around 6850, 7200 and 7750, and...

Crypto-Hamster

Technically being still in a downtrend channel, bitcoin price shows signs of struggle. Volume is higher, bulls are fighting hard. However, the longer bitcoin stays around 6.5k, the more likely it will drop deeper. Also, daily RSI showed very sharp drop and close to the lowest levels.

Crypto-Hamster

Yesterday's stabilization of bitcoin and a possible breakout from the downtrend channel, yet being moderate, led to the drop of the number of shorts. It feels like the big players want more shorts to collect before gather them by boosting the price. It would be a perfect explanation for the fact that the recent drop in price made an increase of the number of...

Crypto-Hamster

Yesterdays's breakout was a false one, the price returned to the previous channel. Probably, one could explain the action with the news from SEC about bitcoin ETFs. Now we are around the strong support level of ~6.8k The drop from the previous high is already huge, so there are two scenarios: 1) go lower 6.4k, which might lead to a sub-6k region, 2) reversal of...

Crypto-Hamster Updated 

The downtrend channel from 8.1k was broken upwards, which was preceded by an accumulation period around 7k for a relatively long time. If the price could hold above the top of the previous channel, there is a high chance of the realization of the accumulation to the upside. Watch for the breakdown to be confirmed.

Crypto-Hamster

A sloppy approach, but funny to observe: the positions of the bitcoin price maximums for the recent six months are coupled in double-tops, and distributed in a way that the number of days between the (bigger) tops is longer (+2). Following this and taking into account the market fluctuations calming down, the next top will be on 4th of November 2018. (4 days after...

Crypto-Hamster

I hope that you smiled when you read "EXACT day". It is more than simply naive to judge about the market behavior from one-two indicators, so treat it as an additional rock in a pile. On a monthly scale the volume seems to draw a gauss-like figure with a center at the bitcoin ATH. Expecting the trend to continue and the reversal of it at the minimum, and also...

Crypto-Hamster

As one can see from the 20MA, from April, or even February the BTC trading volume was declining, but the recent rise lead to a slight reversal of the trend, which was slowed down only at the current stagnation. The situation in similar at most of the huge exchanges, not only BitFinex. To early to say that this is an indicator for the bear-market is out of steam,...