CurtisM

CurtisM

Chart update: You can see that when the 5EMA dropped down into the froth zone in mid-January that the markets did indeed begin a decline as the chart predicted. I've added a third yellow line across the top at the point where markets have reversed in the past. That area is around 19 and with the 5EMA currently at 17 this suggests a few more down days ahead, though...

CurtisM

I follow about a dozen breadth and other indicators and the vast majority are flashing extreme oversold readings so don't be surprised to see a major bounce come Monday and maybe into Tuesday. Here are a few key ones: Close to 90% of Friday's volume went into declining issues. $TRIN closed at 2.05 and this indicates massive selling and a washout of...

CurtisM

You probably know that the FED is planning on eliminating the market's crack via the taper. You probably know about the record setting margin debt that is much like the huge margin debt that was present before the markets tanked in 2000 & 2007. You've probably seen the DOW chart from the 1929 crash that overlays perfectly with the current DOW chart. You probably...

CurtisM

All indicators continue to rise as does the stock. We've had a 9/20 bullish cross as the first phase of a fresh 'buy' signal and a second phase 'buy' signal when NUGT closed above the high from the 10th, which was when we had a bullish cross of the DI lines. The third phase 'buy' signal will come when the ADX crosses up through the falling -DI line. Based on...

CurtisM

Back from late November into mid-December, the DOW was moving within the confines of a falling price channel which turned out to be a Bull Flag when it broke out on some Taper BS. Now we're looking at the same type of formation, but it's slightly different this time as we also have the potential of a Broadening Formation. This particular Broadening Formation...

CurtisM

NUGT has been consolidating for the past several days but throughout this phase no technical damage done. As long as gold doesn't fall off a cliff this coming week, I will be looking to add another 25 shares to my current positions in NUGT and JNUG. Long these at 31.11 and 18.70, respectively.

CurtisM

Last time we didn't have much of a drop, but it did drop. At 12.80 now and may need to go to 12.5 before any give back.

CurtisM

Not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Please consult with a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions. I just thought I ought to put up a real trade since I'm spending so much time here these days. Based on the fact that the 9EMA has crossed up through the 20MA and per my own trading method, I went long NUGT and JNUG on Friday,...

CurtisM

Gold might be something to watch in the short term as there is an opportunity for gold to turn around here. It may not turn, but it does have a couple of things going for it now. One is the recent last engulfing type candle that came on Tuesday and the other is the positive divergence in the RSI. That's not much but it might be enough. However, this is pure...

CurtisM

We pushed into the upper resistance line and are now slightly above it. The big question now is does the resistance line repel SPX or does SPX keep going to the next Fib target of 1906 and then this resistance line become support? I'll let the market decide but with the way things have been going for the last several months, I won't be surprised to see a push to...

CurtisM

Use this chart to watch for times when markets get too frothy, like the current market environment.

CurtisM

With the RSI on the monthly chart now at 76 and likely to go a bit higher before the end of the month, one has to be on the look out for a pull back at any time. The upper channel line has repelled the $SPX several times in the past and may do that again. The RSI on the monthly charts has only reached levels in the upper 70's twice before in recent stock market...

CurtisM

When breadth indicators get oversold, like they were Wednesday, and the market doesn't bounce, then this is new behavior and a possible tell going forward. P/C Ratio closed at .70 today so everyone is expecting a bounce for tomorrow. Maybe they'll get it but it would have been better had the P/C Ratio closed at 1.10 or higher. Always a concern when everyone's on...

CurtisM

Breadth indicators became very oversold today and the RSI on the 60min SPY is at -28 all of which suggests a bounce of one kind or another for Thursday. Could just be a pause in the decline. If we get a pause rather than a bounce Thursday, then look for lower lows ahead. The ES closed very near its lows and that is not good thing for those playing for a bounce. ...

CurtisM

SPX setting up for possible pull back just a few points higher at the upper channel line then resumption of uptrend. Of course, SPX could just head straight to 1905, for all I know.

CurtisM

The rising green trend line, which has now been decisively broken, is rooted in the October lows. $SPX/SPY now moving within confines of new falling price channel. SPY has tried to push up and out of this falling channel numerous times so far and has failed. A test of the lower channel line may be next. We haven't even taken out the swing point at 177.99 yet and...

CurtisM

Last week I wrote that I was looking for a flatish week with maybe a weekly loss of 2pts and clearly that didn't happen. We're now in about the same place as we were at the end of the previous week and I am once again looking for a red candle week. I'm basing this on the fact that the RSI on the weekly and monthly $SPX charts remain well above 70 and are showing...

CurtisM

Pre-holiday trading usually comes on light volume and favors the upside, or so the saying goes.We shall see. Can $SPX make it 8 weekly gains in a row? $SPX monthly chart now has RSI at 76. You can look at this in one of two ways: This high RSI reading indicates a strong market or this high RSI reading indicates an overbought market. Either way, it's starting to...