CurtisM

CurtisM

We will need to see more downside before this formation is confirmed so this is just something to keep an eye on. Problem is we have two key sectors that have been drivers behind this rally and that are now in trouble. $SOX/SMH and $RUT/IWM. If these two key sectors don't start to show some strength, and soon, then their weakness is likely to bleed over into...

CurtisM

I have moved the trend line down but, as of 8:00 A.M., it does appear that SPY/$SPX will open below the trend line. I will continue to move the trend line down, if needed, until either the 13EMA crosses down through the 34EMA or SPY drops below the swing low 176.09, whichever comes first. The corresponding $SPX low would be 1760.64. Per my method, SPY/$SPX are...

CurtisM

Weekly RSI on $SPX chart now at 73 and so is overbought. Have to be on the look out for at least one red candle once RSI in this time frame rises above 70. Might not come next week but maybe the week after. Monthly RSI on $SPX chart now at 75 and so is overbought. Have not seen readings this high since 2007. RSI pushed higher in 2007 and will probably push higher...

CurtisM

In breaking out of this sideways channel, the RSI's on the 60min charts of SPY and QQQ's have pushed above 70 and so are overbought. After the RSI on the 60min charts pushes above 70, one does have to expect a flat market for the following day. Also, $TRIN closed at 0.51 and this too shows a short term overbought situation so more evidence for a flatish market on...

CurtisM

At the moment, just after 8:00AM ET, the ES is sitting on the 13EMA on the 4 hour chart, and the 13EMA is starting to roll over. This corresponds closely with the SPY in the 60min time frame so unless something happens between now and the cash open, then this is how the SPY and SPX will open on their respective 60min charts. Because, per my own personal criteria,...

CurtisM

Well, I was totally off the mark for Friday so be warned that I could be totally off the mark for Monday. However, $SPX, $SPY, $ESZ3 are still stuck in a sideways channel but are very close to breaking out of this channel. This breakout really should happen Monday and maybe even happen near the open and head to the moon as we start the next up leg of this rally....

CurtisM

Back in May, with $SPX extended well above its 20MA and with negative divergence in the CCI and with the RSI at or above 70, $SPX dropped, on an intra-day basis, 120pts. A similar set up in August led to a nearly 90pt drop. Again in mid-September with the same kind of set up, $SPX dropped about 85pts. If you catch my drift. We entered into this same kind of...

CurtisM

News out of Europe guarantees a mega pop at the cash session open. We're going to see indicators push into extreme overbought territory as a result. When the RSI on the 60min charts of SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA, etc, push above 70 then it's time to be very, very cautious as market has entered nosebleed zones. One of two things will happen once the RSI rises above 70 in...

CurtisM

We've been stuck in this sideways channel for 11-13 days, depending on how you want to count. Couple of not so favorable earnings reports after the bell Wednesday are putting pressure on the overnight futures, but I think that will all change by morning. I'm looking for the ES to rally to 1770 or higher by tomorrow morning's cash session open. All because of...

CurtisM

We've been in a sideways market since entering the current range on about October 22nd, so 11 trading days. Until we break out of this range, one way or the other, we're likely to see more days when sell signals appear and then fade into the close. For now SPY SPX & the ES are moving with a positive bias until proven otherwise. GL

CurtisM

It's just approaching 9:00AM ET and anything can happen between now and the cash session open and then the cash session close so keep that in mind. However, with the ES trading at 1756.00, off 7pts, I am very close to getting a 'sell-avoid' on the ES as of right now in the 60min time frame as the ES is trading below both the 13EMA and the 34EMA. I don't have a...

CurtisM

Notice on the chart that each time in the recent past when the CCI has failed to make a new high along with the ES, that within a few days we'll get the start of a decline of one degree or another. Also note that an important precursor to such a decline is an RSI above 70. So as of Friday's close, we have all the ingredients in place that have preceded declines,...

CurtisM

SPY/$SPX managed to close above what I consider to be key EMA's. But the work is not over SPY must get back above the recent intra-day highs from this past Thursday and then above Wednesday's swing high. For $SPX the first high it must exceed is 1768.53 and then 1775.22. IMHO, these highs should be taken out early next week in order to show and prove that $SPX...

CurtisM

Note on the chart that when the 13EMA crossed up through the 34EMA a new rally leg began. Now, on Nov 1st, we're looking at the potential end of this rally leg. It's still early but if the SPY does not rally back to 176.15 or higher, then we'll get the first bearish cross of these two EMA's since the rally leg began and it will take several days, if not longer,...

CurtisM

Using this chart set up to enter the ES because the Q's lead the market. You could probably use this with SPY with the same results. Idea is to take an entry when Fisher Transform has a bullish cross, as it did earlier this morning. When the blue line of the Sto cross up through the orange signal line, this confirms the entry. Since as of 12:38pm ET the Fisher...

CurtisM

This is a very busy chart as $SPX is working out whether it wants to continue with the trend that started in November or morph into a down trend. $SPX has held above the rising trend line and is now moving within the confines of a falling price channel that may ultimately prove to be a bull flag. If it is in fact a Bull Flag, then $SPX should break out decisively...

CurtisM

With today's close, $SPX is just a hare's breadth away from confirming Monday's Hanging Man reversal candle. Nothing says markets won't come back to life tomorrow and take everything back in a couple of hours, but if that does not happen then the Hanging Man candle is likely to prove predictive. GL

CurtisM

A hanging man candle by itself doesn't mean a lot because without confirmation it's just a candle. However, along with that candle, the P/C Ratio dropped to 0.63 today, the lowest reading in a very long time. At the March and September highs we had P/C Ratio readings at higher levels but even so the low readings then were enough to stop the market from moving...