DaddySawbucks

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Pretty compelling graphic; the 1.621 BD resonance strongly suggests imminent rollover. This pattern has been long in developing and bulls are reluctant to give up gains. I expected retest of TL at 3010; got to 3003 on Tuesday and fell back to the 0.786 Fib line. Still can have a washout top to test that TL, might get bullish Friday. This feels like an extended,...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

The 1.618 resonance with AB = CD is compelling. This is extremely Bearish. Expect a big selloff imminent. Larger picture is inside a Bullish Butterfly formation; IF this completes and plays out as projected; the termination of Bat's Wing will be a terrific Buy Opp IMO. This isn't advice; trade at your own risk! GLTA!

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Chart shows all. Got a channel with pennant forming near bottom TL. Approaching tip of pennant, must break one way. If break is up, can go to 29K by Jan 2020. If down... bottomless pit. Foolish optimism on trade driving another huge gap; is it an Exhaustion Gap? Or Gap & Go? If Initiation Gap, then we gonna get a breakout; but all gaps fill eventually. R/R so...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

See my related post on SPY. It's a Butterfly pattern. Current price is retesting the breakdown TL. I am short this index at 2900. The wedge grows narrow, rapidly tightening. Break imminent IMO. Won't be a good time to buy long until Butterfly completes. Expected termination of CD Leg around 2720-2740, by Monday 28 October. Go long after price break completes for...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Graph says all. PE = NMF, they're losing money and stock's been in down channel for quite a while; but the dividend yield at $44 is 6.4%; analyst expectations estimates agree DOW is going to earn more next year in FY 2020 with resizing and trimming, efficiency improvements &tc. Revenue is growing; From $3.4 RPS FY 2019 is expected to go to $4.4 RPS next year and...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

See related post in the 15 min chart for bear flag; here see it really clearly in 1-hr; it is possible the Gap from Tues could fill before heading lower; or just break down from tip of wedge. Friday should give us a pretty clear signal. Entered some shorts; add if it bounces higher; this is a Butterfly pattern CD leg; it is taking the form of an ABC correction....

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Similar idea to my Dow US 30 post. Sand P is statistically a stronger model, from larger numbers. NB: This model is imperfect as the XD spread should be 1.27, but we got a real nice 0.62 Fibo AB retrace of the XA leg up. Note the perfect double top Fibo = 1 (was within a few pips, a 99.9% retrace). Real life is like that, we take what the market gives us. The...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Evolving pattern does not meet Gartly criteria of 0.618 AB leg. Batwing would have a shallow AB , usually 0.5 - 0.618, with 0.50 XB. Therefore it's a Butterfly pattern. Look back at Nov 2018 to see the Bearish Bat, which was imperfect in Fibo. Market tanked anyway, if it wants to sell, it will sell, regardless of the Fibo. Now we find ourselves in the...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Chart says all. Looks quite Bearish but no capitulation as of yet. C waves tend to be fierce and furious. See what it does when Gap fills from 9/04. Bulls will likely return for another crack at ATH if they can hold the line near 26200. SPX should find support near 2900, at least in this first downdraft. Second support at 2860; breakdown through these levels will...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Volume lessens on rising prices, increases on downdrafts. RSI divergent. Small caps have reached .50 Fibo retrace off September's lower high. SP500 and Dow have a gap to fill down to the 0.50 Fibo. Three-day rally feels like a B wave, chaotic and widely fluctuant. If so, expect C wave down to the gapfill at the breakout point from Cup near 26300/SandP 2942. A...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Risk is terrific for both longs and shorts at this juncture; I am sidelined, patiently and prudently waiting. In a previous idea I hypothesized a double bottom possibly in October. It is possible the markets are grinding out a near-term bottom at this consolidation zone now. Markets hold tenaciously to this consolidation zone beneath ATH. The September pullback...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Simple chart, two double tops in July, September. Index repeatedly rejected from 3020 level. Divergence in other indices- Dow, NQ, RUT all below their ATHs. We got a right shoulder forming from Apr > Jul > Sep. May was an ABC, August a meat-grinding see-saw; IMO October will be a vertical drop to double bottom. I do expect ONE more rally attempt before...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Last time we had Cup & Handle in Jun/Jul the market roared up 2k pips. Now we got a monster consolidation in August, with a perfect Cup formation; the countertrend Handle should follow shortly, as an EW 5-wave minor impulse is concluding now, in the right wall of the Cup. Another 2k pips from this level would target Dow price over 29K. SPX could push over 3200....

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Chart says all. Going to new ATH? Tar box 302-304. Could eke out a nominal new ATH before throwover. SPX saw 3026 before; maybe it can give us 3046 this time up. At 3K we have gotta be close to the end of this run IMO. Divergences popping up, sector rotation, RSI fading; today they rotated out of NQ into RUT, buying 'bargains.' Hell idk maybe it will just go...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

After a couple of modest down days we see that intraday QQQ did close the gap from 9/5/19 and bounced to fill today's gap down as well. Index is primed and loaded for final push to double top and possible new ATH. I bought Sep 190 calls and sold the Friday 13 192's to hedge. Looks like end of a Fourth Minor Wave, IMO; The EW is now evident and P/C ratio is up...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Inverted H&S clearly evident, now has broken above TL from consolidation zone; forming the Cup & Handle. EW (not shown, very unreliable to graph out of consolidation) suggests we may be completing Minor Wave 3, so expect some pullback before another burst higher. An extended Fifth Minor Wave could break 27400 for a new ATH. Trades very near the 0.786 Fibo now up...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Equities forming a pennant. Usually these are continuation patterns. A measured move down from flagtip would expect to make a bottom half of flag-pole equal to top half, for about 1800+ pips; this would drop index near 24200, or a bit less. IMO the Megaphone Trend is still dominant. A breakout to upside is still possible if global events magically resolve...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Details in chart. The inverted Head & Shoulders is highlighted with cups, but you really can't miss the big red candles. Gonna get a huge bear flag from this, IMO. Closed my shorts early, but never sorry to give the other guy the last dollar. Reactionary wave should appear within a few days rising from oversold condition. IMO this rascal is gonna pop up hard...