Derivati_Capital

Derivati_Capital Updated 

Notice the downward trend in the US10Y since the 80's, while government, corporate and consumer debt has exploded to all time highs. The achilles heel of massive debt levels are high interest rates, which end up causing slowed growth and economic contraction. With ever higher levels of debt, the level of interest required to put the economy in pain falls over time...

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BLX (Bitcoin) and ELX (Ethereum) indices are now live after being listed on NASDAQ yesterday. This is yet another strong long-term affirmation of the relevance and acceptance of cryptocurrency by traditional financial institutions, following a recent announcement by J.P. Morgan of a proprietary JPM coin. Long-term, I'm feeling bullish. Link to Article

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Gold/Silver spread is still strong with a Gold/Silver ratio around 83, indicating strong bias to gold. With incoming panic in the markets, debasement of the dollar, or both, we can expect the bullish move in gold and silver to continue in the long-term despite all attempts at suppression within the futures exchange. Silver has some serious catching up to do post...

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BND bounced off a critical support corresponding to November 29th, 2007, the day that yields spiked after BND dropped and miraculously regained 7.5%. We see a downward trend forming in BND indicating a tendency toward rising rates while debts and deficits continue to set record highs. If the FED is not willing to significantly debase the dollar through record...

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Pictured above is a graph of Royal Dutch Shell vs brent crude, the correlation coefficient between them, and the commodity channel index tracking the volume weighted moving average of Shell. I tested this indicator on a few energy stocks: RDS, MRO, BP and XOM. Negative correlation between brent crude and an energy stock coupled with an overbought CCI seems to...

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Bearish divergence on the Chaikin and the Fisher Transform, dangerous amount of momentum available if reality starts kicking in here. Falling volume giving an indication of uncertainty at these levels, to be expected. Be patient and watch how it behaves near the 100 VWMA. PPT is still active and will actively seek to eat shorts alive. Retail sales sink 1.2% in...

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29th of November, 2007 - bond market experiences a flash crash which is quickly bought up by the FED in an effort to prevent widespread debt defaults. Worked for a few months only for companies to begin defaulting anyway, probably through a series of realized margin or interest spike risks. This is what caused the financial markets to implode in 2008. Watch and...

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Most of this recent rush upward was triggered by fat fingers breaking the 0.01 resistance level. TDI and CCI indicate a flattening or steady burn off. Notice how resistance is currently at the 50% fib level. Recent low of December 2018 at 0.007 level lines up nicely with a low from November 2017. Consensus: Flattening or grinding downward movement

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All long-looking indicators point to silver being undervalued vs gold . Top chart shows silver candlesticks vs gold red line as percentage returns since 2006 in the case of these investment trusts. Middle indicator is the Trader's Dynamic Index ( TDI ) which holds a combination of moving average, volatility and momentum trends. Bottom indicator is the infamous...

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All long-looking indicators point to silver being undervalued vs gold. Top chart shows silver candlesticks vs gold red line as percentage returns since 1998. Middle indicator is the Trader's Dynamic Index (TDI) which holds a combination of moving average, volatility and momentum trends. Bottom indicator is the infamous Gold:Silver ratio. Silver is sitting on top...

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Buy: $84 Put 02/08 Sell: $79 Put 02/08 Buy: $74 Put 02/08 Cost: $250 Breakeven: $76.50/$81.50 Max Profit: $750 Volatility contraction trade, TP around 10-20% of max profit. Somewhat risky but with a nice 3:1 Reward/Risk ratio.

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During late September, I performed a technical analysis indicating NVDA would reach into the $290 price range before correcting. NVDA has far surpassed a simple "correction" and has entered into oversold conditions as indicated by my current analysis. A 4 wave elliot impulse wave brought NVDA well below 50% off the ATH within a matter of 6 weeks. We have since...

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QCOM looks like it wants to test it's 2 year support at the $50 mark. Secondary support is somewhere around $43. QCOM is coming off of a finished head and shoulders pattern, making its D leg downward. Typically a D leg is finished by a sharp reversal. In case of negative earnings, QCOM will likely drop well below the $50 support and have a sharp reversal upward....

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Historically, when the FED decides to raise interest rates it ends up breaking the market. This happened in 2000 and 2008 with the solution being interest rate suppression and quantitative easing. Both of these methods produce abnormal rates of inflation, leading the FED to raise interest rates in an attempt to preserve the purchasing power of the dollar - and it...

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Short opportunity in the works, indicated by bearish elliot triangle wave coupled with a bearish divergence in the 9-day fisher transform. May remain relatively flat on low volume until earnings reported on January 31st, or perhaps drop before then with the broader market on "trade tensions" and "fear of global economic slowdown". Long-term view: Amazon has a lot...

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Today's selloff marks a 0.764 fib retracement level (1 - 0.236) on the daily chart. Potential beginning a phase C of an ABCD pattern, indicated by stochastic RSI and fisher transform. Watch the next few days for trend confirmation/rejection. Central banks are running the show, don't get greedy. SL @166.0 TP @134.33 or above

02:23

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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to unveil another rate hike this Wednesday, December 19th 2018. Probability of a rate hike is quite high, as a neutral or easing federal funds rate would indicate "a need for stimulus" in the U.S. economy (God forbid the FED indicates weakness in the economy while the stock market is sitting just above critical...

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AMD -7.03% has formed a sharp downward triangle on the 1h chart (looks like the beginning of a Gartley). Lots of sell strength, only people buying are the ones who missed the pump and think they are buying the dip - BIG MISTAKE. Proof? Check out the Accumulation/Distribution , and you will find the beginning of a new peak, a new era if you will... AMD -7.03%...