Diabolicus

Diabolicus

The BTC price on halving dates (blue) has in the past very regularly been ~50% of the corresponding value of the logarithmic regression trend (yellow line). By extrapolating that behavior, we get a BTC price of ~$50.000 for the 4th halving date (mid March 2024). During the preceding bubbles, price exceeded the halving date price by 76%-180%, on average ~125%. I...

Diabolicus

Byteball seems primed for a correction to the upside, especially with time between airdrops gettinger longer and therefore sell pressure drying up soon. Buy dips below 0.027 - 0.25 area, with stop loss near 0.020.

Diabolicus Updated 

For the past 3 months ETHBTC has been consolidating inside a larger triangle pattern (blue). Yesterday, price broke away from a lower S/R level near 0.0235 and reached once again the 0.02725 zone which acted as support and resistance multiple times during March / April (green box). In doing so, it completed the wolfe wave pattern (yellow, to the right,) reaching...

Diabolicus

ETH Wolfe Wave went for a 5 prime position (yellow), suggesting a retracement to the point 4 level. with overshoot likely due to low liquidity. Short entry above point 4, with stop loss above 1-4 target line. Disclaimer: I don't trade ETH.

Diabolicus

China painted this Gartley with near perfect proportions. I give it a greater 50% chance of reaching point C from here, thus returning into that uptrend channel. With the china spread still above 7.5%, once the flood gates open the bottom of that channel might not hold, watch closely. Break above D invalidates this setup, of course. Disclaimer: I'm in no...

Diabolicus

Price deviated strongly from the moving averages, up to 40%. As the Bitfinex panic spike didn't replicate across other exchanges on might leave that aside and stick to the 18% deviation of the 2nd low instead. In the past, such strong declines were often followed by slightly less intense overcompensation to the upside, usually within 1-2 weeks. I expect a...

Diabolicus

Price has shown some nice reactions to the 100% (blue) and 61.8% (green) as well as 25% (yellow) channels of this pitchfork. Right now we are hovering slightly above the center, en route to point B of the current correction (yellow). Should price bounce off of the 61.8% line at B (275$) as expected, then a retest of at least 260$ is in order. Medium Target and...

Diabolicus

Dash bottom still to come, I believe. If this tops here, we might dip sub 0.010 before any further corrections take place.

Diabolicus

All fear the mighty Weekend-Dipkatchu!

Diabolicus

bullish sunday, sidways monday targets: short 630 long 575 short 660 long 640

Diabolicus

If history repeats itself, we might be in for another month of boring sideways action from here on, before we retest higher grounds. Past consolidation periods took between 4 and 6 1/2 weeks to resolve, and price action remained in a range of ~9-14% below the last peak. (SR event excluded) However, given the recent overall bullish developments (at least in the...

Diabolicus

Basically just a summary of some bearish thoughts for the next few days: - Resistance at 530-550 is likely strong, see former price action. - A moderate 38-50% retracement after the recent rallye would be healthy. - Confirmation of the long term trendline is possible and desireable, but due to the overall bullishness price might not reach that line completely....

Diabolicus

After november's parabolic price explosion and a bearish december full of corrections, we are now trending upwards again in a channel which we already know from october. Since the Silk Road dip 3 months ago price rose by ~+2%/day on average. During that same period, difficulty and hash rate of the network also grew by ~+2%/day. Provided fundamentals don't change,...

Diabolicus

With 4hr MACD crossing imminent, there is the possibility of more upward movement today. However make no mistake, since deposits in China are still broken this probably won't go anywhere as high as plotted out here, this is just my most optimistic scenario. As soon as this intermediate uptrend weakens I believe we will see new lower lows (<400 would not suprise me).

Diabolicus

Today's bad news from China has helped accelerate the deflation of the current market and might take us back to a lower trend channel. Unless I see a convincing close above the upper main trendline (grey) I remain short. Trading the swings might be tempting, but we all know how quickly this market changes sentiment, so be careful.

Diabolicus

We might see a retracement here for the next few hours, until China wakes up again to cheap(er than Gox) coins. sub 400$ possible, yet not too likely. As there is still the possibility of that ask wall @400 on Bitstamp getting eaten (and I don't have time to watch this closely the next hours), I won't trade this dip.

Diabolicus

Maybe the DDOS did succeed after all and we see another dip to the trendline before we go back to da moon.

Diabolicus

Throughout the past week we've repeatedly seen the same pattern here: Market trending upward on low or medium volume for 12-24 hours straight, more or less parallel to the larger trend, then at some point acceleration of the trend, followed by only moderate profit taking, which still resulted in 10-15% corrections due to thin order books on the bid side. After...