EightyNineWaves

EightyNineWaves Updated 

Happy New Year! I apologize to those following me for the extended break. I got tied up with other things over the holidays and I'm still trying to get back into the groove of things. I have big things planned for 2022, including tutorials, more instruments covered on a more regular basis, and possibly even a YouTube channel coming... but, one step at a time! I...

EightyNineWaves

We could still see some significant downside from here. I'm showing my more bullish count, but the market has still yet to confirm that it's done correcting on a higher degree. But I did want to point out these three predictions from earlier in the month. Click on each image and then click the "play" button to see how price has progressed since the time I made...

EightyNineWaves

I'm waiting on confirmation on the Nasdaq and S&P before picking a direction. I'm mostly watching to see if the Nasdaq is going to retest its Dec-03 low. If it does, I'd expect the more bearish scenario here to continue unfolding. Otherwise, the markets may bounce here and we'd be looking at something like this:

EightyNineWaves Updated 

Here's another example of a confluence of alternate counts (continuing with the point I made in yesterday's post). Here's two counts overlapped on top of each other. One is bullish going into the new year; the other suggests a return to the Dec-01 low. Yet in the short-term it doesn't matter which is more likely. Both are looking for a short-term impulse to...

EightyNineWaves Updated 

Here's two bullish and two bearish possibilities, represented on two charts. I am cautiously leaning bullish for the time being, but I believe things could develop in either direction. This is a strength of Elliott Wave Theory, by the way - having multiple counts. Many people frown upon it. They like to criticize the subjectivity of EWT, arguing that if...

EightyNineWaves

With the one additional high as anticipated in my last post, the early December rally now looks very impulsive, making it harder for me to get behind the more bearish interpretation that has the index falling below the Dec-01 low. Still, that remains a possibility. But I'm leaning toward this as a wave 2 pullback of a higher degree wave 5, and not as a...

EightyNineWaves

Don't read too much into this. I'm still expecting a bearish turn (see linked idea). But the lower timeframe structures suggest we might see one more high before that happens.

EightyNineWaves

For the immediate future, there are a confluence of different wave counts on all the indices that suggest a likely retracement from today's high (or possibly one more high). How deep that retracement will go requires a more subjective estimate at this point. On the US30, the retracement from the Nov-8 high to the Dec-1 low could be seen as either a 5-wave impulse...

EightyNineWaves

It remains to be seen whether this will develop into a higher degree correction. In the meantime I anticipate at least some sort of temporary bullish relief. A bounce here should tell us what's to come - whether it develops in 3 or 5 waves.

EightyNineWaves

May have a little more downward/sideways movement to settle out yesterday's sharp decline, but having met the projected Fib retracement zones at 35000 I'm expecting a bullish turn today/Monday and a likely continuation of that trend for the remainder of the year.

EightyNineWaves

Given my prior count, this corrective period would have now passed the 100% 4 vs 2 in price and 261% 4 vs 2 in time, so I'm no longer viewing it as being of the same degree as the 10/7 - 10/13 pullback. I'm now viewing the 11/8 high as having completed Minor wave 1 off the early October lows, which now puts a target downside between 35000 - 35500. This means I'm...

EightyNineWaves Updated 

The invalidation level on my prior count was hit yet again this morning. I'm keeping an eye on a couple different possibilities. One says the double bottom near the 100% C vs A ends this corrective period and we're turning up from here. The alternative says that point ends only the A wave of a much larger correction that should take us south of 35500. For the...

EightyNineWaves

That 100% C vs A extension target got struck by lightning this morning. The rate of the rebound almost surprised me as much as the dip. Has it already completed a minuette wave 1 back up? Provided this correction doesn't morph into a triangle or combination, that Fib target being reached today should signal the start of impulsive development on the way to new...

EightyNineWaves

I'm still reworking this count and don't know yet if I like this corrective period better as a (green) wave 4 or 2, but of course the implications on the short term are the same. With yesterday's invalidations, I'm now interpreting the previous upward advance as a B wave, and today is likely to see more downside as it completes an impulse down in leg C. 35686 is...

EightyNineWaves

Having broken yesterday's low, the next invalidation level to watch is 35927. It needs to bounce higher before hitting that level for the bullish scenario to remain valid. If it continues to sell off and breaks that level, this could be a larger correction still in development on the way down to 35500-35750.

EightyNineWaves

This count is very close to invalidation. We may know rather quickly whether it will hold as a possibility. I'm still bullish for the time being, anticipating the start of this third wave. If the price dips down below yesterday's low of 36038, this count will need to be reworked. It is possible that the orange degree wave 2 could still be in development, and may...

EightyNineWaves

I'm not ready to call this correction over. This is my more bullish count, which anticipates a pullback into a minuette wave 2 before climbing higher this week. My less bullish count interprets this morning's climb as a B or X wave, in which case things could turn lower.

EightyNineWaves

I favor the corrective structure sourced from the August '20 high as a still developing triangle. Alternatively, that correction may have completed at the March '21 low and the higher lows and lower highs since then could be viewed as a series of fractal 1-2s in three degrees. Either way, the implication for the immediate future would be the same: Gold would top...