FangTrades

FangTrades

The charts used here are very wide, right click and open image in new tab: Background. The last two Bitcoin market cycles featured: - Clear HTF downtrend: LHs and LLs - A definitive HH signifying a major shift to bullish market structure - A gradual uptrend that built momentum until it became a mega bull market, reaching ridiculous highs (1200, 20k) While...

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1) Is the high in? 2) Is the next low a LL? These determine whether 1D MS is bullish, bearish, or neutral, which then determines the most likely path. These 3 cases in green, red, and white It's clear that 0.20-0.21 was the place to buy; it was the HL after a bullish MS change. But right now there's no unambiguous plays that are confluent with the implied MS....

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Here's the inverted $EURAUD 4H for example; orange is $BTC. Data suggests to treat inverse $EURAUD as a proxy for Bitcoin, and vice versa? Weird but ok

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Not taking this trade, but I thought it would be interesting to see how it plays out against the Bitcoin pattern.

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Expectations for the next few days: - Retrace to 6200-6000. Price should not dip below 5880 = demand cluster EQ - Push up to test the swing high / Nov 2019 shoulders at 6880-6950. - Eventually fill the price / volume gap between 6938-7672 Currently scalp short due to a nice LTF SFP setup. - Small 0.5% portfolio risk, may add upon hourly close. - Targeting the...

FangTrades Updated 

If the arc holds, we'll get a strong push up. If it breaks, we're likely to breach into the mid 7000s.

FangTrades Updated 

So I got the retrace I was waiting for. Since this fits all my setup requirements, I'm going long. I trust that the big boys whose bids got dumped through on the way down will push the price back up so they can close their positions near breakeven. Invalidation below swing low.

FangTrades Updated 

If price pokes through range high at 8010 (even for a sweep), and confirms LTF bullish MS, I'll add to my long after a retrace. I expect something like the arrows in the chart, and would be taking trade 89. Trade invalidated below swing low + a buffer Cleaner screenshot without indicators:

FangTrades Updated 

$BTC Macro - Sept-Oct 2019 demand area - Nov-Dec 2019 supply area - Mar 2020 - Now testing as support - Currently retesting June 2019 channel (log scale) - Currently testing 200 EMA A+ area to accumulate spot imo

FangTrades Updated 

No positions yet - will wait for confirmation of bearish market structure before entry.

FangTrades Updated 

- Looking for longs from lower - Invalidation scenario: if break below 9339, would count as a major bearish break in market structure. Shorts set accordingly - Expecting bull divs to complete

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- I think Bitcoin can go one leg more leg down, but I'm not counting on it. - If 9080 does break, this would be another major confirmation of bearish market structure. - Price tends to have strong movements during such an event. - The 9080 level was retested on the lower time frames as well, confirming its relevance.

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According to my analysis (not included here), the bullish momentum we just saw is likely to be the strongest we'll see during this current upward movement. Ways to profit: - Long a retracement down - Wait until we grind to a slow top and see a lower low before entering a short.

FangTrades Updated 

Expecting a move up to 8600-8950 area, though going long here is tricky / risky. Patiently waiting to short at the channel resistance higher up. Bull case invalidated if Bitcoin prints a daily close below 7750.

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- Price continues to follow descending channel - Sweep of 7.8-8.1ks and fakeout break out of channel likely - Bottom between 6150 and 5750, in before March - Break out of channel by Apr 2020 - Major higher high kicking off bull run by May/June 2020 The thicc white TL is a simple curve that connects the bear markets back to Oct 2011. I fitted the line on Bitstamp...

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The x/y coordinates of the 2011 peak are sourced from 99bitcoins.com