FibnFork

FibnFork

Another strong performance this week from the EURUSD driven by bearish dollar sentiment following fiscal concerns in the US. A false breakout above the January highs of $1.25 quickly retraced back to the monthly open. Potential inverse H&S in play? Median line of this short (untested) pitchfork could come into play alongside the 50% retrace of the post CPI move...

FibnFork Updated 

Slight rebound so far this month for the dollar index and all eyes are on the US inflation data tomorrow 1.30gmt. Fed interest rates futures (green line) held a strong correlation with the dollar late last year. Will the inflation data recouple the two? Top side was capped by the 50% retrace (9/1 -> 25/1) and now the downside is testing the 50% retrace of the...

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Potential head & shoulders for $cad. Either median pitchfork line/38.2% retrace or exact same height as LS at 50% retrace

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After slight surprise in inflation report from US initially sent the dollar soaring, retail sales declined and the december reading was revised down (potential Stagflation). Regardless the $ & fed interest rate expectations have been inversely correlated since late 2017 (see my DXY post). AUDUSD has broken this pitchfork that was superb for the downside action,...

FibnFork Updated 

Three key ranges for bitcoin: $~8.8k-$9k = 50% retrace of 28/1 -> 6/2 decline. 50% pitchfork level. 17th January low, 10th February high. $~9.5k-$10k = 61.8% retrace of 21/1 -> 6/2 decline. 3rd February high. Top end of pitchfork. 50% retrace of entire bitcoin market. $7.8k-8k = 200DMA. 2nd February low(which was significant break of (8/11/2017 high). Median...

FibnFork Updated 

Break (& retest) of this key long term trend line in Litecoin should give some impetus to this upside move. First levels to break will be back above the 100DMA, the .764 retrace (28/1 -> 2/2) which has also been a good pivot in price. Above that opens up ~$190 which was 29th January high.

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A look at key pieces of data that have driven bitcoin/cryptocurrencies crashing and how fundamentals will always beat technical analysis.

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This pitchfork we outlined on the 1st of the month has been providing perfect range for NEO. More specifically the median line, 0.25 & 0.382 levels. Break of .25 level opens up the median line & weekly pivot. Break of .382 opens up the .5 pitchfork level / and previous highs made earlier in the month + 50% retrace 30/1 -> 6/2. Analog of 17/1 -> 29/1 recovery is...

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Solid impulsive move up from the lows across the crypto board. Still need to clear some big levels. For ripple: First level will be .5 fib retrace (18/1 -> 6/2) which is also prev high set earlier today & and a big pivot area before the burst higher in late december. Levels above those will be the underside of the neckline and midline of pitchfork + .618 fib of...

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Crash in equities, caused by a collapse of volatility ETPs: VIX XIV VVIX Has brought the S&P back down to it's 200DMA and the channel support. Potentially giving us 4th wave completion. US CPI data on wednesday will be crucial for market direction. 30 min chart

FibnFork Updated 

Inverse head and shoulders potentially being made on the short term chart. Trend line, .5 fib retrace and 50ma coming into confluence in circled zone.

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Dollar strength across the board (Flowed back in during equity sell off) has given momentum to the EURUSD to reverse off the .382 fib retrace (2008high - 2017low) & long term trend line off the 2008 high. Shorter term technicals: Nearing mid-point of pitchfork with the .382 fib retrace (7/11 - > 25/1) & 18th jan low just below. Breaking those levels opens us up...

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Weak Norwegian growth data pushing the usdnok higher towards key levels. First level circled is .5 fib retrace 21/12 -> 1/2, and the 161.8% extension off the inverse H&S. R3 also in area Second and stronger level is the mid pitchfork line, the .618 retrace 21/12 -> 1/2, the 200DMA & the 200% extension off the inverse H&S. R4 also in area Looking to short...

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Updated count to what is more likely to be the bottom (4th wave + abc correction).

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Decent v-shaped recovery across the crypto board after that significant decline. Some levels to note for ethusd: Underside of trend line that has been pivoting price. Key area is the circled. Confluence of .25 pitchfork, .5 fib retrace 28/1 -> 6/2, .382 retrace 13/1 -> 6/2 & the .382 retrace of the entire range Rsi could hit top trend as we push to those levels.

FibnFork Updated 

Dxy breaking through short-term resistance possibly off the back equity flash crash ($ haven), coming into another key resistance area.(.382 long term fib & trend line) Longer term picture was 4th wave being made, so a brief bounce, before a final low being made.

FibnFork Updated 

Reaching a zone of resistance (.5 fib retrace 19/12 -> 31/1, also previous highs 11/1 & 29/12 and also pivoted price back in october 2017. R2 also at ~1.259 with some extensions off the current run. Some bearish RSI divergence. Pop through these levels drags us into more resistance area.

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Any hope for the crypto market? With fear running amok in risky assets across the markets, cryptos have been plummeting, most down ~60% from their highs. Some technical levels for ethereum: Bottom atm has hit the pitchfork low level & the 100% fib extension (31/1 -> 17/1 -> 28/1) & the .618 fib retracement off the entire range.